Posted on 10/24/2006 7:14:40 AM PDT by GOPcomeback
TN Corker 45 Ford 43 MT Tester 46 Burns 43 MO McCaskill 46 Talent 43 VA Allen 47 Webb 43 NJ Menendez 45 Kean 42 OH Brown 48 DeWine 40
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
Never assume.
Ras did just the opposite: he was horribly off in 2000, then refined his methods and got more accurate in 2004. But I think even he is a little left this time around.
I do NOT assume they are making these errors because of ideology, but rather because they are WRONGLY ESTIMATING THE NUMBERS OF REGISTERED DEMS IN A STATE. We saw in 2004 that the best analysis of exactly how many registered "Ds" and "Rs" there were was Jay Cost, who said that the Dems' numbers were way overestimated. If a pollster is using inflated registration #s, he's off from the get-go.
Therefore, I don't think any of these polls are close yet. They will move closer as the election nears, but still be 1-2% tilted left.
SIs, in Michigan, says the governor is really pulling "Little Debbie" down. She should have distanced herself from her.
Where's the fock is the Maryland Senate race?
Ok, here's the precise wording on the PA poll from the Centre Daily Times (State College, PA).
"This McClatchy-MSNBC poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc., of Washington, D.C. A total of 625 registered Pennsylvania voters were interviewed statewide by telephone."
I don't think this is a case of sloppy reporting by my local paper. I thing someone is fooling around with the facts here.
Is Santorum's deficit really that bad????
The ad seems to be effective. Fox is making them for other Dem candidates.
By DICK MORRIS & EILEEN MCGANN
October 24, 2006 -- The latest polls show something very strange and quite encouraging is happening: The Republican base seems to be coming back home. This trend, only vaguely and dimly emerging from a variety of polls, suggests that a trend may be afoot that would deny the Democrats control of the House and the Senate.
With two weeks to go, anything can happen, but it is beginning to look poss- ible that the Democratic surge in the midterm elections may fall short of control in either House.
Here's the evidence:
* Pollsters Scott Rasmussen and John Zogby both show Republican Bob Corker gaining on Democratic Rep. Harold Ford Jr. in Tennessee, a must-win Senate seat for the Democrats. Zogby has Corker ahead by seven, while Rasmussen still shows a Ford edge of two points.
* Zogby reports a "turnaround" in New Jersey's Senate race with the GOP candidate Tom Kean taking the lead, a conclusion shared by some other public polls.
* Even though Sen. Jim Talent in Missouri is still under the magic 50 percent threshold for an incumbent, Rasmussen has him one point ahead and Zogby puts him three up. But unless he crests 50 percent, he'll probably still lose.
* Even though he is a lost cause, both Rasmussen and Zogby show Montana's Republican Sen. Conrad Burns cutting the gap and moving up.
* In Virginia, Republican embattled incumbent Sen. George Allen has now moved over the 50 percent threshold in his internal polls. (He'd been at 48 percent.)
Nationally, Zogby reports that the generic Democratic edge is down to four points, having been as high as nine two weeks ago.
None of these data indicates that the Republicans are out of trouble yet, but Democrats must win one of these three races: Ford in Tennessee, Menendez in New Jersey or Webb in Virginia. If not, they'll fall at least one seat short of controlling the Senate even if they succeed in knocking off all five vulnerable GOP incumbents in Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Missouri.
Why are Republican fortunes brightening?
The GOP base, alienated by the Foley scandal and the generally dismal record of this Congress, may have fast forwarded to the prospect of a Democratic victory and recoiled. They may have pondered the impact of a repeal of the Patriot Act, a ban on NSA wiretapping and a requirement of having an attorney present in terrorist questioning - and decided not to punish the country for the sins of the Republican leaders.
Bush's success in dealing with North Korea and his willingness to reassess tactics in Iraq could also play a part in the slight shift now underway.
Then, too, some in the Democratic Party must be finally realizing what a disastrous decision it was to put Howard Dean in as party chairman. The Democratic National Committee is broke and borrowing, while the GOP can afford to fund fully its key races.
Right now, we would have to say that control of Congress has gone from "lean Democrat" to a "toss-up." And that's progress for the Republicans.
http://www.vote.com/magazine/columns/dickmorris/column60420992.phtml
No, they aren't. I just checked the Mason-Dixon links and those are all Likely Voter polls. They all specify as follows:
"A total of 625 registered [....] voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All stated they were likely to vote in the November general election."
I'd guess it's probably a bit worse. 3% of the poll respondents said they would vote for a third party candidate but none of the third party candidates ended up qualifying for the ballot, so those votes will probably mostly go to Casey.
That is not a likely voter. Answering the question "are you likely to vote" does not a likely voter make.
A likely voter is determined by participation in the last several elections. Anything less is misleading.
Well, Mason-Dixon considers it a likely voter poll, and so does just about everyone else, so that's good enough for me.
"I repeat my earlier prediction. DeWine, Burns and Chafee are gone. Santorum could still pull it off. Corker, Allen, Tallent win comfortably as does Liebermann in Connecticut."
Bush was very popular in Montana and I think once Montanans realize the Senate could be lost they'll vote for Burns. Don't be surprised if the Bush man makes a visit or two to Montana before election day.
All the races will start tightening up as they always do and then about 3 days before the elections the Republicans will pull ahead. Rats gain 5-7 in the House and 2-3 in the Senate tops!
This is good news, as GOP candidates are leading in TN and VA, which are must-win for the Democrats if they want to take control.
I still think it's close to 50-50. If I see kean go up 8 to 10 points in the polls I'll finally believe it's a win for him. I'm voting for kean no matter what, of course.
I don't think any pollsters go through the expense of looking up voter records on every single person they poll, it would cost a zillion dollars. They usually ask a few questions like, "did you vote the last 3 elections," "are you likely to vote", etc. and they take the voter's word for it, hoping that most people don't lie.
It aint over till the fat lady sings. I'm nervous but optomistic.
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