Survivor! The GOP Victory

Barrons Online ^ | 10-23-06 | JIM MCTAGUE

[pinkpanther111]

JUBILANT DEMOCRATS SHOULD RECONSIDER their order for confetti and noisemakers. The Democrats, as widely reported, are expecting GOP-weary voters to flock to the polls in two weeks and hand them control of the House for the first time in 12 years -- and perhaps the Senate, as well. Even some Republicans privately confess that they are anticipating the election-day equivalent of Little Big Horn. Pardon our hubris, but we just don't see it. [pols]

Our analysis -- based on a race-by-race examination of campaign-finance data -- suggests that the GOP will hang on to both chambers, at least nominally....

[pinkpanther111]

A little good news on election predictions....

found this article via: Sister Toldah at http://sistertoldjah.com/archives/2006/10/22/barrons-online-magazine-prediction-of-gop-victory-next-month-link-to-the-full-story/#comments

[spokeshave]

Rove....the magnificent

[plain talk]

Had the media never put forward this notion of trying to nationalize the election, I believe not much would have happened except perhaps some modest Republican losses.

[romanesq]

Saw Novak's criticism that this is based on finance data. And we all know finances don't make the final determination in an election with so many races nationwide.

This is up in the air and trending the wrong way. I'm not sure if it will go the right way or slip the other. The Senate looks more secure for the Republicans.

[Enterprise]

"They argue that money doesn't make a difference when the electorate is as worked up emotionally, as it is this year."

Sorry to burst their bubble, but the electorate is not worked up. It is the Democrats, who, as usual, are emotionally unstable and hysterical. But then, it doesn't take an election for them to get to that state.

[isthisnickcool]

But, but, but...I'm not going to vote Republican. I can't because the TV says I'm not going to. How can I go vote if people like that little short guy on ABC who used to be partners with James Carville and is now pretending to be a "journalist" tells me I'm not going to vote. .sarcasm off

[harpo11]

It is so wonderful to read an article that speaks the joy of glowing vibrant truth rather than dark defeatism for the Republicans this November.

I've always understood this simple truth. Winners dictate the terms. Losers submit. So why would republicans want to clothe themselves in misery and defeat.

I can't wait to see Nancy Pelosi's and her fellow nut cases maniacal dreams go poof when they see just how wrong they were in ever aspiring to think that the Republicans would cut & run and leave our great nation, brave troops, and our tax cuts, our national security in the hands of an ultra San Francisco liberal socialist, Nancy Pelosi, this Election Day 2006.

[Extremely Extreme Extremist]

Posted 3 times already

[appeal2]

I can't wait to see that buffoon Charlie Rangel retire too.

[DoughtyOne]

I hope this is right, but I'll leave the celebrating for after the election.

[DManA]

The big losers in a Republican victory would be the polling companies. I think they're having a devil of a time finding conservatives who will cooperate with them anymore. I won't.

[Clintonfatigued]

This relies heavily on financial advantages. However, in some races, the financial advantage is marginal, not overwhelming.

[AntiGuv]

This analysis is beyond ridiculous. They have Francine Busby defeating Brian Bilbray, BTW..

[AntiGuv]

In 2004 this were their Senate predictions.

AK: Murkowski
CO: Coors
IL: Obama
OK: Carson
FL: Martinez
GA: Isakson
LA: Vitter
SC: DeMint
SD: Thune

In their House predictions they predicted that Marvin Parks would defeat Vic Snyder. Snyder won 58% to 42%. They also predicted that Max Sandlin and Nick Lampson would win TX-01 and TX-02 while Chet Edwards would lose TX-17. They also predicted that Martin Frost would win TX-32. I guess it's safe to say they do not have their finger on the pulse of Texas....

[BooBoo1000]

If the Pubs do go down to defeat, they damm well deserve it.Newt took them to control of the House and Senate with a promise to stop the practices they the Pubs are now guilty of...I hope we can convince Newt to run in 08 for Pres. It would really be interesting to watch a person with the command of the Language, and the knowledge of the back room deals around Washington.The Repubs are a sorry lot. What have they done for anyone but themselves?? Nothing, they control House Senate and White House and still cannot get any meaningful legislation passed. How about Border Control, How about doing something about S/S, or the health care. Nothing Nada, Lets get rid of the bums and all of this from a 77 year old Republican, who has never voted for a Dem in my life.

[no dems]

Does anyone know who has raised the most money; Santorum or Casey Jr.?

[bray]

Any Party can have a Bad Decade or Two!

Pray for W and The Election

[no dems]

OOPS! I read the entire article. Here's the best news I've heard in a long while.

In Pennsylvania, pundits have written off Republican Sen. Rick Santorum, who has raised $17.3 million. His Democratic challenger, Bob Casey, who has raised $15 million, has a large lead in the polls. This is the first serious challenge for Santorum since he was elected in 1994. We see him defying the pollsters on Nov. 7 and hanging on to his seat, with voters from the Western part of the state riding to his rescue.

[California Patriot]

The call for Busby over Bilbray took me by surprise too. But if they're right and she's raised $3 mil to his $2 mil, it's certainly possible. If the returns in the Eastern time zone are bad for us, as they easily could be, the media will be shouting it loud and proud, and Republican turnout from 6 to 8 p.m. could really crater on the West Coast.

But there is at least one extremely goofy call in the Barron's article: Kennedy over Klobuchar in Minnesota. Ain't gonna happen. They also think Santorum will win in PA. Possible, but this is a risky prediction to say the least. Mechanically predicting winners based strictly on fundraising is foolish, especially this year. I think Barron's should stick to things it knows -- business and money, which are not at all the world of politics.

[California Patriot]

Pure foolishness. At 77, you should be much wiser than this. You should be ashamed.