Posted on 10/21/2006 3:13:37 PM PDT by West Coast Conservative
JUBILANT DEMOCRATS SHOULD RECONSIDER their order for confetti and noisemakers, BARRON's claims in their next edition. The Democrats, as widely reported, are expecting GOP-weary voters to flock to the polls in two weeks and hand them control of the House for the first time in 12 years -- and perhaps the Senate, as well. Even some Republicans privately confess that they are anticipating the election-day equivalent of Little Big Horn. Pardon our hubris, but we just don't see it.
Our analysis -- based on a race-by-race examination of campaign-finance data -- suggests that the GOP will hang on to both chambers, at least nominally. We expect the Republican majority in the House to fall by eight seats, to 224 of the chamber's 435. At the very worst, our analysis suggests, the party's loss could be as large as 14 seats, leaving a one-seat majority. But that is still a far cry from the 20-seat loss some are predicting. In the Senate, with 100 seats, we see the GOP winding up with 52, down three.
Developing...
As much as I believe the Republican Party can do better...
There is only one choice this November. Republicans, or complete insanity and socialistic nightmare. Therefore...
Straight ticket Republican for me. I refuse to allow anorther "Perot" to happen. The stakes are far too high.
Put down that crack pipe man!
"Look at House races back to 1972 and you'll find the candidate with the most money has won about 93% of the time. And that's closer to [u]98[/u]% in more recent years, "
It works as a good correlation, but it won't predict undercurrents of voter sentiment like we may have in 06.
Ok, I'm game, how are you predicting "undercurrents of voter sentiment like we may have in 06"?
I plan on monitorin the DU on election night just to watch their heads explode..
One DU poster the other day had a post that said, in effect, if the dems don't start impeachment proceedings the day after the election (when they grab control of the house), I'll never vote again..
this person is so darn sure of a win and impeachment..they simply can't believe or understand that people vote against dems..and the groundwork is already being laid on diebold for every dem loss..
it's truly going to be fun..
Democrats will do anything for ratings.
yitbos
Oakland Raiders in Super Bowel! Go Raiders!
Yeah, SUPER BOWEL! Michael Moore thanks you. :)
Congressman Billybob posted this earlier. Like the model or not, it has been validated in the past.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/user-posts?id=1262
It's always safe to assume the worst so that we will continue to work hard as if we are losing. The result could be actually gaining much more than we had expected.
Lief says, "WTF!!".
http://www.myspace.com/hippy100
I lived underground in a bomb shelter from age 10 to 17 without electricity and very little food. I had to crawl under sniper bullets to a spring to fetch water for my elderly parents. I was betrayed by my country, rescued by my enemy Israel, the Jewish State that is under attack for its existence today.
Simply amazing!
They really got thrown under the bus by their so-called friends ;^)
Of course, in double plus good Media Speak, it's going to be the fundies staying home.
o
=====
Absolutely true. That's why regardless whether the media is predicting win or loss for GOP, Republicans and conservatives need to get out and VOTE. I don't see that the Dems are all that energized, so if Republicans get it through their heads how important this election is, to keep Republican control of Congress and will get out and vote in large numbers, we WILL keep it, but if Republicans stay home, for whatever reason, we lose. So, ignore news and predictions and VOTE VOTE VOTE Republican.
Told ya so.
Does this mean next week it's back to losing everything again?
Pluck a petal and we lose. Pluck a petal and we win. They love me and they love me not. Which petal will be plucked last?
Sorry, just kind of dizzy with the rollarcoaster they create for their own purposes.
No matter. I've consistently stated barring some unexpected shocker that the GOP retains status quo. Meaning they either lose a few, or gain a few, but nothing to significantly affect the balance of power. The only thing I've said that might change that analysis was if the GOP passed amnesty. They did not. So the analysis holds.
I've also stated the GOP, and the voters it typically attracts in latter years, are the only ones that can alter this analysis. So, yes, if they wantd to or we wanted to their majority could be eaisly sunk. On the other hand if they wanted to expand their majority...it's within their means as they control the powers of legislation, and if we want to we can shock the Dems on election night.
The Dems/MSM/Kos/SOROS whomever..really don't have a say in this. At least, not beyond their typical blue strongholds.
As of right now Talent holds. Allen holds. Corker retains Frist's seat. DeWine, imo, has flipped the corner and Holds. Burns is close, he has it within his means to close. Santorum's race I cannot even begin to wager. He's dependent on Dems voting for him, but they've done it before. He's got a good ground campaign that predates GOTV, but he is the Dem's number one target. I'm personally rooting for Santorum, so we'll see.
Chafee is dependent on how highly Rhode Island Liberals value incumbancy. He has NO other value to them. Right now I peg a loss, but I admit the mind of a R.I. Liberal isn't one I fully understand.
Bouchard and Steele could be upsets. I don't think polls can adequately pick up blcks transfering support to a Republican in atypical numbers. Kennedy's (R) name is being tossed around but I'm not buying that one yet. Kean, sorry, it's N.J. They are going to have to prove they'll vote for a RINO over the real deal offered by the D's. They've flirted too many times in past for me to buy this one yet.
By my count the GOP at most can only lose three seats. Burns, Santorum (No, I'm not counting him out), and Chafee (could care less if he did lose) and this doesn't factor unexpected pickups in states like Maryland. And as I said, imo, Burns is close to solidifying re-election. No way they get the majority, nor even shrink it to 50/51 so a Jeffords can be made.
For the House, there are NOT ten seats or more available for the Dems to take. 4-9 tops. Consider it akin to the correction the markets take from time to time, no big deal really, other then districts settling into someone closer to their belief system.
I suspect if they lose seats it'll be closer to 5-6. Though it's possible they could retain and gain....IF they DO, don't necessarily assume all the same faces are back. Could be a case of losing one rep, gaining another. Basically swapping a RINO in a Lib district for a conservative in a conservative district held by a dem.
BTW, while I've been preaching status quo for month upon month while the people in the Beltway have been going broke consulting their seers, LS has consistently not only stated they wouldn't lose the majority but they'd gain a couple of seats.
Either we're going to be wrong, or the MSM is going to be wrong. It would help if the MSM would try to be a bit more consistent however.
** ""Oh, I don't know. If you count all the money behind the msm, I think the dems probably come out with the biggest bucks. But I don't think the dems have counted on people like me who will go out and vote precisely because of all the bias being shown.""
Excellent point, concerning the msm. The DNC continues to receive millions of dollars worth of free advertising from the very willing anti-American media.
If the media were ever to change their ways, become unbiased and report just the facts - the demo party wouldn't be able to win a single election, even if it were an election for dog catcher.
No shock to me...
For the time being anyway, sanity will prevail.
Is Barron's considering the number of illegal aliens who will be voting?
It is like predicting a football game when it is 14-14 in the 3rd quarter.
WE HAVE GOT TO FIGHT HARD. we have got to get our side out to vote in a big WAY !
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