Apparently, Burns has shot himself in the foot a couple of times during the campaign, but looks to have righted the ship.
Burns is "toast" because that's how the media is portraying it, and has been portraying it for some time now. Even the Billings Gazette (which gets a large circulation in Montana) has softened up on Burns after lashing Burns for months. Tester should be up 20 or 30 points or more after all the abuse he's gotten from Tester and the media, but he's not.