Posted on 10/19/2006 6:58:42 PM PDT by seanrobins
I thought that the math involved was pretty simple. Let's try again...
If A=45% and B=55% and the total number of respondents in the sample is, let's say, 200 - to make it easy - then A, which is 45% alse equals 90 individuals and B equals 110 individuals.
With me, so far?
A=45%=90
B=55%=110
B is greater than A by 20 persons
B is also greater than A by 18% NOT 10%
The difference between A and B, and a function of the total (100%) is 10%
But since what I was discussing was the degree to which Democrats were being oversampled by the pollster, the significant number is the % which Democrats exceeded Republicans in the sample.
Percentages of percentages - as you put it - ARE significant, when discussing in releative terms, how great an oversampling was made.
There does not necessarily need to be exactly equivalent numbers of Democrats as Republicans in the sample, but it should approximate (in this national poll) the national breakdown of Democratic vs. Republican registrations.
What HAS been happening, and what is significant, is that most if not all mainstream media driven polls are being "fiddled with" in terms of the sample.
Even you should be able to handle the following math:
If the sample was 100% Democrat, the approval rating of George W. Bush would be.......(can you guess?)
Excellent Post. These Phony polls are to keep the talk of a Rat Landside in the Echo Chamber. After we win...silence!
Pray for W and Our Troops
A Survey I would like to see...
1) A believe the war in Iraq is going a) Well b) Not well
2) Generally, newspaper reports I have read indicate the war in Iraq is going a) Well b) Not well
3) Generally, TV News reports I have read indicate the war in Iraq is going a) Well b) Not well
4) My opinion is shaped mostly by a) TV News b) Newspaper Reports
Absolutely. I heard Rush briefly mention exit polls recently, although admittedly BOTH of my kids have been home all week due to the surprise storm in WNY so I haven't listened as closely as I usually do. I think Levin, Hannity, and Limbaugh, at the very least, ought to start hammering away at the point on exit polls starting now.
Let me guess you are a Demonrat and actually think there are more Democrats than Republicans in the general population.
Correction:
If you want to insure Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi are formulating the laws you must live by, sit this one out!
I do think we have figured out this is war - but the repubs in congress still think it's a "good ol' boy" network. But that disappeared years ago .. ever since the Clinton came to town.
Actually, Bubba Clinton's legacy is: TOTAL DESTRUCTION OF THE DEMOCRAT PARTY. Poor dems .. when they laid down with that dog, they should known they'd wake up with flees!
Hey man, dont waste your time with this guy. Seems to be a little off.
Now for the real polls.................LOl!
I forgot, we aren't supposed to pay any attention to them because they're all biased.
Me too. The dims are believing their own polls. They did this same thing in 2004 - when Carville put the garbage can on his head. LOL!
I can't wait to see the dems' faces when it all falls apart.
At least that's what I'm believing will happen.
Then we get the added bonus of Rangel resigning as long as he keeps his word. I can hardly wait.
Surprised you were not on this thread. Hence, ping...
Once upon a time polls had credibility. They were "scientific." Pollsters have completely undermined their credibility because their "polls" are not remotely scientific. They are scams!
I believe there are two main reasons for over-sampling the Dems
1) Naturally, it improves their fund-raising by encouraging their base and gives the media a great way to cheer on their leader
2) It is an effort to use any Dem loss as a way to cry "voter fraud" should the Republican win.
Look at the recent Robert Kennedy book...his whole premise is that polls/exit polls suggested a Dem win and the Reps won in OHio....of course, we know that exit polls can be totally wrong (especially when pollsters are young and obviously of the Dem persuasion as is what happend in 2004...respondents didn't want to get in an argument so they lied)
Your numbers don't work out. I ran the numbers assuming 85% of each party prefer that party in power, 5% are unsure, and 0% prefer the other party (historically this is accurate). Under those assumptions it's evident that self-identified independents prefer a Democrat-controlled Congress by a 2-1 ratio.
Now, if we assume the actual electorate will be 35% GOP / 35% DEM / 30% IND (again, historically that's accurate), then the adjusted results would be as follows:
Preference for GOP-controlled Congress: 38%
Preference for DEM-controlled Congress: 47%
Not Sure: 15%
As others have stated, you can't take percentages of percentages and expect it to work out. You have to convert the percentage into real terms, adjust the numbers, then reconvert it back into percentage format. Sorry.
Oops - "and 0% prefer the other party" should be "10% prefer the other party".
"1,006 registered voters were questioned during the October 13-16, 2006"
Registered voter poll means almost nothing when it comes to elections. Needs to be 'likely voters' to mean much. These indeed are typically Democrat-biased, especially in off-year elections.
Democrats are running anti-incumbent races, but that doesnt
That explains why the folks like Sean Hannity are pumping up the GOP base ... well, they would do it anyway, if we were having a great year, we'd have the cheerleaders pushing for turnout so we could have a filibuster-proof majority.
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