Posted on 10/18/2006 12:59:40 PM PDT by Kaslin
The GOP is [rearranging] "deckchairs on the Titanic," and single women will propel Hillary Clinton to the White House in 2008, says political analyst Dick Morris.
Republicans are watching their base shrink dramatically in the wake of the Mark Foley scandal, said Morris, appearing on "Your World" with Neil Cavuto.
The former Clinton advisor and confidante pointed to a recent Gallup poll that revealed what has happened among church-going whites, whom Morris called "the ultimate GOP base." They are "splitting 47-47 in their vote," he told Cavuto, who said "Then it's a matter of just sitting home [on election day] but they're actually voting for the other guy."
Said Morris: "White church-goers have moved 21 points away from the Republicans in margin since pre-Foley," Morris explained. The percentage of white, frequent church-goers that vote Republican has dropped from 58 pre-Foley to 47 now."
Cavuto asked if the strong equity market and pretty good economic numbers were "falling on deaf ears?" Morris recalled that there were pretty decent economic numbers in 1994 under the Democrats when the GOP captured control of Congress.
Noting that the good economy is not helping because it takes a "long time for the economy to percolate through" and thus cannot help the GOP, Morris said the "short term cause" of the coming Republican disaster is "the base abandoning the Republican party because the Foley scandal hurt - you can't imagine how much that scandal hurt." Morris said incredulously, "Right now Democrats have an 8 point lead over Republicans on promoting morality in America? Duh!"
Cavuto commented that even though we have a Dow flirting with 12,000, the Evangelical base is saying "it's not the money it's morality." He asked, "That's going to trump all?" Morris said, "I think the Republican Party has survived because of [Karl] Rove's fabulous capacity to generate the base, but now we're having the base slipping out."
He explained that most politicians work on getting a percentage of the voters who are out there, but Hillary Clinton works on increasing the number of voters on her side.
He pointed out the recent article which revealed that half of all households in the U.S. are unmarried. He also said that 19 million single women voted in 2000, and 28 million voted in '04. "And I'll bet 35 million vote" in 2006. "The number of single mom, minimum wage earning waitresses who come out and vote are going to be the phenomenon."
Hillary might not do that well among the current electorate, Morris said, but she'll grow the electorate by 10 million votes and that's how she'll win.
I haven't noticed that he wa correct in any of his predictions
I never tire of seeing those photos!
Morris' track record for predictions has been mixed.
Don't you mean the Toe sucker is dreaming?
Can she really be that stupid? She'd have to hope the entire country forgets how badly she screwed that up when her husband was in office.
The archetype for me is a college educated professional father with small children, who lives in a suburb that is affluent and not too far from a central city. My archetype lives on the coasts or in the northern half of the interior. He prides himself in being a psuedo intellectual and describes himself as an "independent." Pundits used to refer to my archetype as a "swing voter" but that belies the true dynamic. My archetype has opposed the war since 2004. He thinks global warming requires government intervention. He worries a lot about "the future of his kids" but not the way you and I do - his worries are about the environment, schools and jobs. He believes in the Flat World and thinks Bush is overreacting to anti Westernism. He watches PBS. Etc.
I doubt the base is shrinking even there
probably like flipping a coin? :)
FNC has the Alert out now. Neal Cavuto just announced it
Would Dick Morris recognize a values voter even if he were sucking on her toes?
d.o.l.
Criminal Number 18F
You see many examples of this archetype in Silicon Valley. Very clean cut, typically driving a very "practical car" such as a Toyota Corolla, Honda Civic or Saturn. Never goes to political rallies and does not personally know anyone in MoveOn. Lives in a detached home in a suburb dating from somewhere between 1965 and 1990. Would never buy a McMansion or live some place like Eldorado County, California. Type location would be West San Jose, California.
Thats good news everything morris says always turns out opposite.
Thanks...sorry it took so long to respond. :0)
I was refering to those Evangelicals who Morris thinks will suddenly desert the GOP over Foley and not just sit out the election but actively support Democrats. I have no idea why Morris thinks these people exist.
That rat is going to GO BLIND!!
I am about as sick of Morris as I am of his "clients", the Clintons. He made a living from them when he worked for them, and now makes a living by constantly evaluating their every move and breath. He is a hoax.
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