Posted on 10/18/2006 12:59:40 PM PDT by Kaslin
The GOP is [rearranging] "deckchairs on the Titanic," and single women will propel Hillary Clinton to the White House in 2008, says political analyst Dick Morris.
Republicans are watching their base shrink dramatically in the wake of the Mark Foley scandal, said Morris, appearing on "Your World" with Neil Cavuto.
The former Clinton advisor and confidante pointed to a recent Gallup poll that revealed what has happened among church-going whites, whom Morris called "the ultimate GOP base." They are "splitting 47-47 in their vote," he told Cavuto, who said "Then it's a matter of just sitting home [on election day] but they're actually voting for the other guy."
Said Morris: "White church-goers have moved 21 points away from the Republicans in margin since pre-Foley," Morris explained. The percentage of white, frequent church-goers that vote Republican has dropped from 58 pre-Foley to 47 now."
Cavuto asked if the strong equity market and pretty good economic numbers were "falling on deaf ears?" Morris recalled that there were pretty decent economic numbers in 1994 under the Democrats when the GOP captured control of Congress.
Noting that the good economy is not helping because it takes a "long time for the economy to percolate through" and thus cannot help the GOP, Morris said the "short term cause" of the coming Republican disaster is "the base abandoning the Republican party because the Foley scandal hurt - you can't imagine how much that scandal hurt." Morris said incredulously, "Right now Democrats have an 8 point lead over Republicans on promoting morality in America? Duh!"
Cavuto commented that even though we have a Dow flirting with 12,000, the Evangelical base is saying "it's not the money it's morality." He asked, "That's going to trump all?" Morris said, "I think the Republican Party has survived because of [Karl] Rove's fabulous capacity to generate the base, but now we're having the base slipping out."
He explained that most politicians work on getting a percentage of the voters who are out there, but Hillary Clinton works on increasing the number of voters on her side.
He pointed out the recent article which revealed that half of all households in the U.S. are unmarried. He also said that 19 million single women voted in 2000, and 28 million voted in '04. "And I'll bet 35 million vote" in 2006. "The number of single mom, minimum wage earning waitresses who come out and vote are going to be the phenomenon."
Hillary might not do that well among the current electorate, Morris said, but she'll grow the electorate by 10 million votes and that's how she'll win.
"And we know how often Dick Morris is right."
Flip a coin.
Still, he's not pulling this out of thin air...
This is comforting, actually. I have not seen Moriss make an actual prediction on these elections before and I have been hoping for one. Wheen he has made actual predictions in the past he has been wrong, I think, 100%.
I like to see predictions by Dick Morriss. When he predicts something the uncertainty mostly goes away because he is wrong when he says that somethinf will happen, at least erenow, he has been wong on everything I know about.
It is because single women ae looking for protection, for a husband, whether they think they are or not. Married women have their husbands already, they don't need to elect one.
12.46? Where do you get your numbers? Dick Morris is a great political analyst. Your numbers are way off. 0.0 right per cent right my friend. :)
No disrespect, but seems like everyone here underestimates Hillary. I put nothing past her. She's smart and calculating, and I think she'll win in 2008. And I'll have to move to Bermuda.
If they are on drugs, they are not going to make it to the voting booth anyway.
As far as drug testing as a condition of welfare payments (lets say past the first three months)...
Sounds like a good idea.
If there is a druggie mom, you want her to get straight and not hurt the kids with the drug use.
Maybe get the kids into adoption if need be where some white woman like Madonna can come along and buy the kid... :-) (just joking)
Oh great, I guess that means he'll write ANOTHER book about the Clintons this week.
It was funny though!! :-)
LLS
I don't remember him ever being right. This is a good sign.
Is no one concerned that the little rat sucking its own toes in the photo is going to go BLIND?!
The difference is, people have to be actually be stupid to vote for her
Lets talk about that "household" number. If 50 percent of house holds are married and 50 percent are not then what are we talking about in terms of population...150 million married folks and their children verses an an amalgum of single women house holds, single men house holds, single mom house holds, single dad house holds, gay couples(male or female), hetero unmarrieds including unmarried but committed seniors living together but just trying to manage their social security checks as two singles.
Some married households have children living with them that are of voting age but go to college and are living at home. I think the experts need to use different metrics in measuring potential voting patterns merely by house-holds!
They are apt either to vote for pro life fringe candidates or other third party candidates or to sit home on their hands if they do anything at all other than vote republican. That is what they did before Jerry Falwell and the day of Ronald Reagan!
What is needed right now is a strong leavening Center Right regional party that puts about 50 to 75 seats into congress and 10 seats into the Senate! It would force the major parties into dealing with the stickier moral values issues in order to have the third party support the thrusts of one or the other parties. True the larger parties could attempt to marginalize them,but eventually disagreements between the 2 larger parties would force them to deal and make deals with the smaller party.
This is why we need a third party right now, not necessarily large but certainly potent and out-spoken..."king makers" if you will!
Dick Morris is the worst political prognosticator in the history of the profession.
He's good at analyzing the situation, but totally incompetent at interpreting the results of said analisys.
Whew, best news I've seen in a long time. When is the last time to toe sucker has been right?
THAT is an outstanding tagline!
IMHO Big Dick is like Bobbie Woodward ----- anything to sell a book........ and rarely right......
Yeah, like the way to fix Foley is to vote out the Republicans and vote in the Party of Studds.
Mr. & Mr. Studds. That's Gerry,
sporting the gay tie
and Dean, the gay widower and pension loser.
Recall that Foley never actually got to first base with his page, whereas Gerry really did nail his 17-year-old (with the aid of ethanol, among other lubricants). Resignation? Rehab? Nope. Six more terms and his name on a national marine sanctuary.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.