Posted on 10/18/2006 6:57:50 AM PDT by YaYa123
WASHINGTON - Election Day is three weeks from now, and unless something happens fast, this will be one of those once- or twice-in-a-generation elections when a party enjoys unbelievable gains or endures horrendous losses that prove to be the exceptions to Tip O'Neill's adage that "all politics is local." In midterm elections, Democrats last suffered such a defeat in 1994; for Republicans, it was 20 years before that in the Watergate election of 1974.
(Excerpt) Read more at msnbc.msn.com ...
"The GOP's chances against incumbent Debbie Stabenow in Michigan, Maria Cantwell in Washington and an open seat in Maryland are now long shots, at best. Right now, the Senate looks most likely to reflect a five- or six-seat gain for Democrats, putting the chamber at 50-50 or giving Democrats a hair-thin 51-49 majority. A four- or seven-seat gain is also quite possible, and a three- or eight-seat gain is theoretically possible, but highly unlikely."
I know the first reaction is to diss Cook without reading what he writes, but I hope some replies offer factual rebuttal based on local information.
No change in my district, the House for Campbell and the Senate get's DiFi - nothing new here in many elections.
I find it hard to believe there are that many new faces running for political office that would make that big a change since historically there is only a 1-2% change in any election.
Well if you go by the liberal polls, Allen, Coker, Talent all have a good shot of winning. Steele, Santorum have momentum. Rove seems to have the money and the game plan in place for the final 3 weeks. So in a worst case senario, Cook could be right. But if we get out the vote the Senate reluts might surprise folks.
Here's a fact. The election has not even happened yet. I will paste the same comments I have made on similar threads.
"Since the exit poll scam of 2004 didn't work, they (MSM) are now trying to set the mold of a Democrat landslide for 2006. When it doesn't happen, they will already have the stories in place to run with a "something stinks" angle. They’re merely sowing damage control seeds"
The MSM's annoying tendency to constantly attempt to guide and manipulate events by predicting the future with articles like this is a very old tactic.
And judging by the elections over the last several years, not a very effective one at that.
Ummmm, I believe republicans PICKED UP seats in the 2004 mid term elections.
How does Santorum have momentum when he's down by 13 in the new Rasmussen poll? We need realism here, folks. In order to hold the Senate, we have to identify winnable seats and nail them down! Santorum cannot win at this stage and to pretend otherwise helps nobody but the Dems.
Isn't Cook a democRAT party polster? If so, his record is that he is wrong far more that correct. This is just part of the MSM's effort to suppress Repub vote and dream their fantasy into a reality. I am waiting for Zogby to claim it will be a great day for the democRats. Then I know we are home free.
These people have been spewing this bilge for so long they are starting to believe it themselves.
Either they worship at the church of the infallible opinion poll or they are deluded.
Take you pick.
As for me on Nov. 7 it's a straight "R" ticket and no looking back.
Why should anyone read that claptrap and waste their time offering a 'factual rebuttal' to a complete idiot?
This fool is buying into conventional wisdom, which is going to be taking a big hit this November.
If one looks at the polling, compared with polling from the last several elections, one can see that the results are quite clearly slanted left at a much larger margin than they ever have been. When you allow for that to be corrected, you see that NOT A SINGLE ONE of the seats that this guy is talking about are actually in trouble.
We will hold DeWine, Santorum, Chaffee, Burns, Talent. We will pick up Steele and maybe even one more in WA.
The house is a bit tighter, but these national outfits can't properly poll such small areas. Historically, they have had a lousy track record and I don't see any reason for that to start changing now.
We have the momentum. We have the issues. We have the money. We have the GOTV. We have that magnificant bastard Karl Rove. They have HUGE TROUBLE with GOTV and they have a badly planned '50 state strategy' and members of their own party competing against them with turnout and voter outreach.
So, quit the defeatism and stop building up morons like this guy by letting it get you down. There are MANY reasons to be optimistic.
To take control of the Senate, the 'Rats must run the table.
That isn't going to happen and they also have their own little "Jeffords" problem in the form of Joe Lieberman.
Ditto for the House, they have to win everything in sight while losing nothing themselves.
Plus, it's still three weeks to Election Day and that is an eternity in politics.
What Charlie Cook has been doing is nothing but spraining his wrist in giddy anticipation.
Giving up on these seats three weeks before the election is defeatism. A lot can happen in three weeks. I fully expect that these polls are more liberal media bs, and our party is probably taking a small, but temporary, hit from Foley. I expect that the reports of giving up on Ohio and DeWine are more liberal BS, and I fully expect that we'll win not just in TN, NJ, and MO, but OH, PA, and MT as well.
LOVE your tagline, and as Rush fans would say, "MEGA DITTOS"
Thanks! :) Right back at ya! :)
True, it's now likely Stabencow and Cantwell will hold their seats. Big deal. That's not where the race is decided. DeWine, Corker, Chafee, Talent, and Santorum will all hold. Burns is a tossup. We will GAIN in both MD and NJ for a +1 in the Senate. I see at least three Dem seats in the House vulnerable, and most of the supposedly vulnerable GOP seats, ain't. A wash, or +1 for the GOP in the House.
The GOP also picked up senate seats in 2002, another "off year" that was supposed to be a disaster. I think they lost a couple of House seats, but not many, that year.
Because he ain't down by 13. All along, ALL the polls, including Ras, have been vastly oversampling Dems. I don't know why, but I do know from ON THE GROUND experience it is happening. My guess is that on these polls, if you subtract 5 from the Dem and add 5 to the Republican, you have an accuate pic. I figure Santorum is down a few (under 5) and has the mo after the debates. He'll hold his seat.
I was going to wait to make predictions later but at the moment here is how it looks to me in the Senate.
Burns is out. His corruption and bungling campaign gives the victory to the moonbat for one term.
DeWine is also gone. He should have governed as a true Reagan conservative but he got caught up in the McCain view that he wanted to be liked by the MSM now he is liked by neither, adios to that fool.
Chafee is gone also. They will elect a real crackpot instead of the psuedo one. You can't alienate a large chunk of your electorate as Chafee has done and expect them to save your butt in a bad election cycle.
I think Santorum pulls it out. No real reason other than Casey is a really bad candidate and Santorum actually stands for something. We will see could be more heart than head with this one.
Allen and Corker win by much wider margins than the MSM hopes, and Talent wins by a few points so we hold those.
Upsets: I see Kean winning despite his stupid Bush bashing. Menendez is simply too corrupt and a very weak candidate and his vote has topped out in the mid 40s.
The big upset will be in Michigan where the Dem gets beat 52% to 48%.
Lieberman beats the Moonbat Lamont easily.
Final results then: A net loss of one seat in the Senate counting Lieberman as a Demo loss.
Take that Charlie Cook!
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