Posted on 10/17/2006 12:30:24 PM PDT by Incorrigible
BY JOHN FARMER
CLEVELAND -- Nowhere this year is the decline in Republican midterm election fortunes more evident than here in Ohio.
For close to two decades, the Buckeye State has been the most solidly Republican big state outside the South. During most of that time, both houses of the Legislature, most of the 88 county courthouses and the lion's share of state judicial seats, a big majority of the state's congressional delegation and both U.S. Senate seats have been in GOP hands. And it has been 20 years since a Democrat has been elected governor.
The Republican monopoly, managed by perhaps the most efficient GOP machine in the country, mirrors the dominance the party enjoys in Washington, where it controls the White House, Congress and most of the federal judiciary.
Barring an "October surprise," however, that domination could change dramatically if polls hold up.
The Iraq war, President Bush's low popularity ratings and a dismal view of Congress amplified by the Mark Foley page scandal are burdens for Republicans here as elsewhere. But Ohio Republicans face special problems -- a stagnant economy and the record of Gov. Bob Taft, whose administration has been plagued by corruption and who personally pleaded guilty to taking illegal gifts. Taft's approval rating is mired in the low teens.
It's no surprise then that Democrats are heavily favored to capture the Ohio governor's office. But they also lead narrowly in the race for a U.S. Senate seat now held by a two-term Republican, Sen. Mike DeWine, and are unexpectedly competitive in races for at least three U.S. House seats currently in GOP hands. Two of these seats are among five nationally that have attracted the most campaign spending.
Friday's guilty plea by veteran Republican Rep. Robert Ney to charges relating to bribes he took from influence peddler Jack Abramoff was yet another blow to the GOP's image here. Ney withdrew from his re-election race in August.
The fear of Republicans in Washington is that the sudden show of Democratic strength in Ohio, with its history as a bellwether state in national elections, could be an omen for GOP fortunes elsewhere.
Republicans here make no attempt to paint a rosier-than-reality picture. In Columbus, John McClelland, communications director of the Ohio Republican Central Committee, cited local conditions, Bush's problems in Washington and the Iraq war in describing the climate for Republicans as "difficult."
"It's not impossible" for Republicans to win, he said, "but it is difficult."
The key to Democratic hopes is Ted Strickland, a congressman from southern Ohio who's a near-prohibitive favorite to end the long Democratic drought at the gubernatorial level. His poll lead over his GOP rival, Secretary of State Kenneth Blackwell, has been in double digits for months.
If Strickland's lead lasts, Democrats here say, it will help Democrats down the ballot, especially in the race for the U.S. Senate, where DeWine, a moderate conservative, is running neck and neck with Democratic Rep. Sherrod Brown, a conventional liberal who represents a suburban district in the Cleveland area.
The Senate contest here is seen by both parties as critical to determining whether Democrats gain the six seats they need to become the Senate majority in the next Congress.
The hurdle Democrats face in Ohio is the absence in much of the state of anything resembling an effective party organization.
"That's what happens when you're out of control in Columbus (state government) for 20 years," said Tim Hagan, the Democratic nominee for governor four years ago and currently a Cuyahoga (Cleveland and suburbs) County commissioner. "No patronage, no party," Hagan said, "and without jobs and the power of the purse you can't sustain a party organization, you can't raise money, especially when you've been out of power as long as we have."
The Democratic Party's decline nationally has occurred simultaneously with the loss of governors' offices over the last 15 years, especially in the largest states, like Ohio, with the most Electoral College votes and the most money. Besides Ohio, Democrats this year have targeted governor's offices in New York, Massachusetts and Maryland now held by Republicans as a step toward improving the party's presidential prospects in 2008. They're favored in all four states.
For all their new energy and activity, Democrats can't win here on their strength of their own base among labor, minorities and social and economic liberals. They need Republican defections -- and there are signs that's occurring.
Charles "Rocky" Saxbe, a lawyer in Columbus, is a lifelong Republican whose father was a U.S. senator from Ohio and U.S. attorney general in the Nixon years. But he's openly supporting Strickland, he said, for reasons involving the scandal-scarred record of the Taft administration and what he called "the shrill message on values" of the Bush administration.
He was especially critical of Karl Rove, Bush's political guru, and what Saxbe called "Rovian scorched earth" campaign tactics. They've worked in past elections, Saxbe said, but "they've begun to backfire."
Blackwell, the GOP candidate for governor, symbolizes what Saxbe sees as a too-far-right Republican message. An African-American and once a black-power advocate, Blackwell today is a fierce opponent of abortion rights, gun control and stem cell research. He's a favorite of the Christian right, a major part of the Ohio Republican base which, in many cases, operates openly out of evangelical churches.
Both the gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races here have produced signature issues and real policy choices. Strickland and Blackwell offer competing plans to spark the state economy -- Blackwell emphasizes business tax cuts, Strickland spending for education and job training. Ohio has lost some 300,000 jobs, mostly in manufacturing, during Bush's tenure; the state's unemployment rate runs about a point above the national average.
In the Senate race, Republican DeWine and Democrat Brown are starkly different personalities -- the bespectacled DeWine soft-spoken and mild, Brown crisp and forceful. While critical of Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, DeWine backs the Bush policy in Iraq and emphasizes the threat of terrorism. Brown, while refusing to set a date for a U.S. troop drawdown, is sharply critical of Bush's conduct of the Iraq war and sees it as diverting assets and energy from the fight against terrorism.
The overriding impression, however, is the candidates and their differences are overshadowed by the widespread reaction to two men not on the ballot -- President Bush and Gov. Taft -- and the record of events in Washington and Columbus the last few years.
Oct. 17, 2006
(John Farmer is national political correspondent for The Star-Ledger of Newark, N.J. He can be contacted at jfarmer@starledger.com)
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And your non-vote for Dewine, but defacto vote for sherry brown is going to put the the pedal to the metal for conservative govt. reform.
JMO, I ain't the idiot.
You're on the money. Buckeye GOP problems come from Bob Bennett and his lip-attaching affection for RINOs. Despite the incompetence of Taft et al, and the puzzling drifting by DeWine, the party could be in a much better position if the organizational apparattus were not controlled by rinos. I knew Rocky Saxby 25 years ago when I served with him in the legislature, and he lacked a "pair" then, too.
However, I urge you to change your mind on DeWine. He may suck but control of the Senate is in the balance and that alternative really does suck a lot more.
You cannot project the damage done by a feckless RINO governor (Square Bob Sponge Tax) and two RINO senators in Ohio onto the nation.
Brother, I'm right there with you. I'll vote the straight GOP ticket in Ohio except for DeWine. I draw the line there.
"There is no way I will vote for DeWine." I understand your feelings because I don't like DeWine either. The way we need to get rid of him is by having another Republician run against him in a primary. I've fought with Sherrod Brown because he is my representative. He is the greater evil compared to DeWine. The National Rifle Association help DeWine get elected years ago and he let us down. I want Dewine out also though I wouldn't trade him for Brown.
I don't think Ohio is the best measuring stick. There is a tremendous backdrop of scandal that you don't see in most states.
Each election cycle we should dump a few rinos. This election I hope its DeWine and Chaffee.
Well, yes but it's not the same as having a 49-51 minority and there's a real risk of it. And the fact is, even in absolute terms, even if Rs end up in the minority despite DeWine, having DeWine is superior to having Brown.
Was he a Dem prior? Or is this his first time voting?
why not vote against Brown...Brown will filibuster a conservative Supreme Court pick
I know Rocky and my guess is he's backing Strickland for the money. Rocky does a lot of government work and doesn't want to be shut out for four years.
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