Posted on 10/17/2006 10:30:53 AM PDT by presidio9
Gas prices are down, the stock market is at a record high and 60 percent of Americans say the economy is in good shape. So why are Republicans in so much trouble?
I've been asked this in the past week by several (mostly rich) Democrats and Republicans, so I picked the brains of a number of pollsters. Kathy Frankovic, director of surveys for CBS News, pointed to the finding in the CBS News/New York Times poll conducted Oct. 5 to 8, which said that despite the increase in the number of people saying the economy was in good shape, they were not optimistic about the future. Only 19 percent said the economy was getting better, and by a 51 percent to 36 percent margin people picked the Democrats over the Republicans as the party which would ensure a good economy.
Democratic pollster Geoff Garin says "the only economic statistics that matter right now are flat incomes and still more than a majority of voters feel they are falling behind economically. New jobs aren't as good as the jobs we lost and any gains aren't trickling down to the middle class. And voters feel that the economic outlook is glum for the next generation."
In fact, the recent CBS/Times poll found that 46 percent said they were making just enough to get by and another 17 percent said that they weren't making enough to pay their bills. Only a third of Americans said they had more than enough to get by.
Nonpartisan congressional election analyst Charlie Cook reads the polls the same way and says that Iraq and a feeling that the Republicans have been in power too long are dominating the economy as an issue this year, and that many Americans feel they are working harder and harder but not getting ahead.
But what about gas prices? Republican pollster David Winston has long thought they were a big source of Republican woes and if they came down Republicans would have an easier time of it. Cook feels gas prices seem to have "hurt Republicans when they were going up and helped when they were going down," but that the phenomenon was "distinct from a broader economic concern that the Republicans were favoring the other economy that has been doing so well." Democratic pollster Diane Feldman took it a step further. Her research has found that many voters "think the Republicans manipulate gas prices." Both she and Cook say the market is irrelevant to most voters.
In an important book published this fall, "Applebees America," the authors, Republican pollster Matthew Dowd, Democratic strategist Doug Sosnik and former AP political writer Ron Fournier, throw cold water on the "Economy Drives the Vote" theory. In a chapter entitled "Values Trump the Economy," they argue that people vote with their hearts not their heads and are hungry for a "gut value connection" with political leaders. Voters are searching for community and authenticity, and leaders who are able to persuade them that they care about voters and convince them that "we are all in this together" will be successful. On a panel in Washington last week, Fournier said that Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm was pulling ahead in the polls despite the terrible economy in her state because she made that connection on values.
"Applebees America" is a fascinating book and uses a huge amount of sophisticated polling and marketing techniques to demonstrate the thesis that values and culture beat issues and policies. However, several pollsters have argued that this is a false distinction. Geoff Garin contends that "issues have to be expressed in a language of values but values without issues lose the transaction people look for in candidates, i.e., how are you going to make my life better."
The Bush administration and Republican candidates are still hoping that the good economic indicators, falling gas prices and issues like taxes and government spending will get through to voters in the final days of the campaign. But time is running out, and so far the voters' heads and hearts have been focusing on other issues and different solutions.
See-BS: "Don't we do a wonderfully biased job of ensuring that there is no good news when Republicans are in office? All economic statistics can be distorted to tell whatever story we want to tell......."
Both she and Cook say the market is irrelevant to most voters.
Ah, yes. FEEEEEEEEEEEELINGS
SeeBS News does not help the GOP
But Dan Ratherbiased is GONE GONE GONE and I'm sure that still smarts. I think it's gonna leave a mark.
It's pretty amazing what kind of living standards people who say they are "making just enough to get by" actually have. I bet most people buying $3,000 plasma televisions think they are living in poverty and need a hand-out.
If we ran off the illegal immigrants, there would be a lot of employers looking for workers.
Those wouldn't be NEW jobs but they'd be jobs.
And maybe the hate-wal-mart types would protest the construction crews and farmers and restaurants to pay the REAL wages for those jobs.
Yep. The parking lot at he local Best Buy isn't getting any less crowded anytime soon.
I'm so poor I can only afford dialup for my 1.2GHz computer. I'm still running Windows XP SP1 < /s >.
And talk about tv, I can only afford basic cable and a cellphone with roaming charges, and the 2 titles at a time Netflix plan, and...
wait... I thought it was always "about the economy, stupid"
guess when it comes to a robust GOP created economy, that doesn't apply..
Maybe if you idiots didn't support over-taxation and regulation of industry and enable the satanic Democrats from enacting then protecting these taxes and regulations there'd be more money for your pay raises. And maybe your job performance sucks and you don't deserve a bigger pay raise. Ever think of that? Idiots. My raise this year was a bit disappointing, but I blame that on the amount of taxation my employer has to pay in the State of California including a VERY costly audit by the IRS which found nothing askance that kept our company's profits down this year. I keep the books here and I see how much has to be paid out in payroll, federal, state, county and city taxes. It's no wonder pay raises are more meager than we'd like. But the morons blame it on Bush. I give up on this country. Stupidity has won.
If you spend more than you make, you will feel that way. That's the case whether you make $20k a year, or $800k per year. Life is so much simpler when you live below your means.
The figures on national consumer sentiment are fairly old, but the Chicago figures usually anticipate them fairly accurately.
I thought I had heard that sentiment was up recently, and sure enough I just found this:
U.S. Economy: Chicago-Area Manufacturing, Confidence Rise
By Shobhana Chandra and Bob Willis
Sept. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Manufacturing in the Chicago area unexpectedly accelerated this month and Americans grew more confident as the effects of declining fuel prices rippled through the U.S. economy.
The National Association of Purchasing Management-Chicago said today that its regional index rose to a 14-month high of 62.1, from 57.1 in August. Consumer sentiment as measured by the University of Michigan's rose to a five-month high.
I'd say this is more likely to be accurate than some biased left-wing reporter's report of street corner interviews.
Technically, they would be new jobs, because illegals usually don't pay taxes. The simpler solution is to get rid of welfare. That would put an end to the nonsense of "jobs Americans don't want to do."
"Mow that lawn or your kids don't eat," is a valuable motivator.
LOL, that man-beast just screams liberal, doesn't it?
Where did the pollsters go to find these results? The ghettos? One problem with this poll is that many people try to live outside their income. People who max out all credit cards and have to pay the high interest rates are not smart money managers.
Dismal Scientist Bump
"Good Economic News Doesn't Help GOP . . .
And BAD ratings for Couric don't hurt us!"
Getting a bit tedious at this point and we've still three weeks to go. Sheesh.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.