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CBS News: Good Economic News Doesn't Help GOP
CBS News ^ | 10/16/06 | Dotty Lynch

Posted on 10/17/2006 10:30:53 AM PDT by presidio9

Gas prices are down, the stock market is at a record high and 60 percent of Americans say the economy is in good shape. So why are Republicans in so much trouble?

I've been asked this in the past week by several (mostly rich) Democrats and Republicans, so I picked the brains of a number of pollsters. Kathy Frankovic, director of surveys for CBS News, pointed to the finding in the CBS News/New York Times poll conducted Oct. 5 to 8, which said that despite the increase in the number of people saying the economy was in good shape, they were not optimistic about the future. Only 19 percent said the economy was getting better, and by a 51 percent to 36 percent margin people picked the Democrats over the Republicans as the party which would ensure a good economy.

Democratic pollster Geoff Garin says "the only economic statistics that matter right now are flat incomes and still more than a majority of voters feel they are falling behind economically. New jobs aren't as good as the jobs we lost and any gains aren't trickling down to the middle class. And voters feel that the economic outlook is glum for the next generation."

In fact, the recent CBS/Times poll found that 46 percent said they were making just enough to get by and another 17 percent said that they weren't making enough to pay their bills. Only a third of Americans said they had more than enough to get by.

Nonpartisan congressional election analyst Charlie Cook reads the polls the same way and says that Iraq and a feeling that the Republicans have been in power too long are dominating the economy as an issue this year, and that many Americans feel they are working harder and harder but not getting ahead.

But what about gas prices? Republican pollster David Winston has long thought they were a big source of Republican woes and if they came down Republicans would have an easier time of it. Cook feels gas prices seem to have "hurt Republicans when they were going up and helped when they were going down," but that the phenomenon was "distinct from a broader economic concern that the Republicans were favoring the other economy that has been doing so well." Democratic pollster Diane Feldman took it a step further. Her research has found that many voters "think the Republicans manipulate gas prices." Both she and Cook say the market is irrelevant to most voters.

In an important book published this fall, "Applebee’s America," the authors, Republican pollster Matthew Dowd, Democratic strategist Doug Sosnik and former AP political writer Ron Fournier, throw cold water on the "Economy Drives the Vote" theory. In a chapter entitled "Values Trump the Economy," they argue that people vote with their hearts not their heads and are hungry for a "gut value connection" with political leaders. Voters are searching for community and authenticity, and leaders who are able to persuade them that they care about voters and convince them that "we are all in this together" will be successful. On a panel in Washington last week, Fournier said that Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm was pulling ahead in the polls despite the terrible economy in her state because she made that connection on values.

"Applebee’s America" is a fascinating book and uses a huge amount of sophisticated polling and marketing techniques to demonstrate the thesis that values and culture beat issues and policies. However, several pollsters have argued that this is a false distinction. Geoff Garin contends that "issues have to be expressed in a language of values – but values without issues lose the transaction people look for in candidates, i.e., how are you going to make my life better."

The Bush administration and Republican candidates are still hoping that the good economic indicators, falling gas prices and issues like taxes and government spending will get through to voters in the final days of the campaign. But time is running out, and so far the voters' heads and hearts have been focusing on other issues and different solutions.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Editorial; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: baghdadbobalert; bias; cbs; clintonrecession; clowncarmedia; democratmediaalert; fakebutaccurate; mediabias; seebsnews; wishfulthinking; wtfk
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To: presidio9

See-BS: "Don't we do a wonderfully biased job of ensuring that there is no good news when Republicans are in office? All economic statistics can be distorted to tell whatever story we want to tell......."


21 posted on 10/17/2006 10:40:24 AM PDT by Enchante (There are 3 kinds of lies: Lies, Damned Lies, and the Drive-By Media)
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To: presidio9

Both she and Cook say the market is irrelevant to most voters.




Man, if this isn't an argument for the vote being taken away from the common man, I don't know what is. I'm beginning to think this country is ill-suited for democracy with the amount of ignorance Americans are besotten with.


22 posted on 10/17/2006 10:40:26 AM PDT by MikeA (Foley has resigned. Bin Laden has not. That's what's at stake in this election, not some pervert.)
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To: presidio9
and still more than a majority of voters feel they are falling behind economically

Ah, yes. FEEEEEEEEEEEELINGS

23 posted on 10/17/2006 10:40:29 AM PDT by Puppage (You may disagree with what I have to say, but I shall defend to your death my right to say it)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum; b4its2late; frogjerk; The Duke; Salvey; MikeA; Henry Wilson; EagleUSA

24 posted on 10/17/2006 10:40:32 AM PDT by presidio9 (Make Mohammed's day: Shoot a nun in the back.)
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To: presidio9; Timesink; martin_fierro; reformed_democrat; Loyalist; =Intervention=; PianoMan; GOPJ; ...

SeeBS News does not help the GOP

But Dan Ratherbiased is GONE GONE GONE and I'm sure that still smarts. I think it's gonna leave a mark.


25 posted on 10/17/2006 10:40:40 AM PDT by weegee (Remember "Remember the Maine"? Well in the current war "Remember the Baby Milk Factory")
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To: frogjerk
In fact, the recent CBS/Times poll found that 46 percent said they were making just enough to get by . . .

It's pretty amazing what kind of living standards people who say they are "making just enough to get by" actually have. I bet most people buying $3,000 plasma televisions think they are living in poverty and need a hand-out.

26 posted on 10/17/2006 10:41:29 AM PDT by Alberta's Child (Can money pay for all the days I lived awake but half asleep?)
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To: COBOL2Java

If we ran off the illegal immigrants, there would be a lot of employers looking for workers.

Those wouldn't be NEW jobs but they'd be jobs.

And maybe the hate-wal-mart types would protest the construction crews and farmers and restaurants to pay the REAL wages for those jobs.


27 posted on 10/17/2006 10:42:38 AM PDT by weegee (Remember "Remember the Maine"? Well in the current war "Remember the Baby Milk Factory")
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To: Alberta's Child
It's pretty amazing what kind of living standards people who say they are "making just enough to get by" actually have. I bet most people buying $3,000 plasma televisions think they are living in poverty and need a hand-out.

Yep. The parking lot at he local Best Buy isn't getting any less crowded anytime soon.

28 posted on 10/17/2006 10:43:00 AM PDT by frogjerk (REUTERS: We give smoke and mirrors a bad name)
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To: Alberta's Child

I'm so poor I can only afford dialup for my 1.2GHz computer. I'm still running Windows XP SP1 < /s >.

And talk about tv, I can only afford basic cable and a cellphone with roaming charges, and the 2 titles at a time Netflix plan, and...


29 posted on 10/17/2006 10:44:25 AM PDT by weegee (Remember "Remember the Maine"? Well in the current war "Remember the Baby Milk Factory")
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To: Henry Wilson

wait... I thought it was always "about the economy, stupid"

guess when it comes to a robust GOP created economy, that doesn't apply..


30 posted on 10/17/2006 10:44:49 AM PDT by fhlh (Polls are for Strippers.)
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To: rightinthemiddle
"If you expect a 3% rise in income and you get 2.5%, you're disappointed," says Ken Goldstein, an economist at the Conference Board, a private research group in New York. So their answer is to blame the GOP or the president??? Yet these same dumbasses refuse to support tax cuts, the one thing govt. could do to boost their incomes.

Maybe if you idiots didn't support over-taxation and regulation of industry and enable the satanic Democrats from enacting then protecting these taxes and regulations there'd be more money for your pay raises. And maybe your job performance sucks and you don't deserve a bigger pay raise. Ever think of that? Idiots. My raise this year was a bit disappointing, but I blame that on the amount of taxation my employer has to pay in the State of California including a VERY costly audit by the IRS which found nothing askance that kept our company's profits down this year. I keep the books here and I see how much has to be paid out in payroll, federal, state, county and city taxes. It's no wonder pay raises are more meager than we'd like. But the morons blame it on Bush. I give up on this country. Stupidity has won.

31 posted on 10/17/2006 10:45:17 AM PDT by MikeA (Foley has resigned. Bin Laden has not. That's what's at stake in this election, not some pervert.)
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To: Alberta's Child
It's pretty amazing what kind of living standards people who say they are "making just enough to get by" actually have.

If you spend more than you make, you will feel that way. That's the case whether you make $20k a year, or $800k per year. Life is so much simpler when you live below your means.

32 posted on 10/17/2006 10:45:29 AM PDT by Henry Wilson
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To: presidio9

The figures on national consumer sentiment are fairly old, but the Chicago figures usually anticipate them fairly accurately.

I thought I had heard that sentiment was up recently, and sure enough I just found this:

U.S. Economy: Chicago-Area Manufacturing, Confidence Rise

By Shobhana Chandra and Bob Willis

Sept. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Manufacturing in the Chicago area unexpectedly accelerated this month and Americans grew more confident as the effects of declining fuel prices rippled through the U.S. economy.

The National Association of Purchasing Management-Chicago said today that its regional index rose to a 14-month high of 62.1, from 57.1 in August. Consumer sentiment as measured by the University of Michigan's rose to a five-month high.

I'd say this is more likely to be accurate than some biased left-wing reporter's report of street corner interviews.


33 posted on 10/17/2006 10:46:11 AM PDT by Cicero (Marcus Tullius)
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To: weegee
Those wouldn't be NEW jobs but they'd be jobs.

Technically, they would be new jobs, because illegals usually don't pay taxes. The simpler solution is to get rid of welfare. That would put an end to the nonsense of "jobs Americans don't want to do."

"Mow that lawn or your kids don't eat," is a valuable motivator.

34 posted on 10/17/2006 10:46:23 AM PDT by presidio9 (Make Mohammed's day: Shoot a nun in the back.)
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To: presidio9

LOL, that man-beast just screams liberal, doesn't it?


35 posted on 10/17/2006 10:46:59 AM PDT by MikeA (Foley has resigned. Bin Laden has not. That's what's at stake in this election, not some pervert.)
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To: presidio9
CBS Says:

"Good Economic News Doesn't Help GOP . . .

And BAD ratings for Couric don't hurt us!"

36 posted on 10/17/2006 10:49:13 AM PDT by blues_guitarist (Black, conservative, Christian . . . . . . and I play guitar!)
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To: presidio9
In fact, the recent CBS/Times poll found that 46 percent said they were making just enough to get by and another 17 percent said that they weren't making enough to pay their bills.


Where did the pollsters go to find these results? The ghettos? One problem with this poll is that many people try to live outside their income. People who max out all credit cards and have to pay the high interest rates are not smart money managers.

37 posted on 10/17/2006 10:49:21 AM PDT by Arrowhead1952 (DBM - still trying to create a nonexistent legacy for BJ Clinton.)
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To: presidio9; A. Pole

Dismal Scientist Bump


38 posted on 10/17/2006 10:50:46 AM PDT by Incorrigible (If I lead, follow me; If I pause, push me; If I retreat, kill me.)
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To: blues_guitarist

"Good Economic News Doesn't Help GOP . . .

And BAD ratings for Couric don't hurt us!"

39 posted on 10/17/2006 10:51:37 AM PDT by presidio9 (Make Mohammed's day: Shoot a nun in the back.)
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To: presidio9
"Nothing will help the GOP! NOTHING! WE WILL WIN! WE WILL WIN!! WE WILL WIN!!!"

Getting a bit tedious at this point and we've still three weeks to go. Sheesh.

40 posted on 10/17/2006 10:53:11 AM PDT by Billthedrill
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