Posted on 10/14/2006 8:05:19 PM PDT by nj26
Virginia Sen. George Allen (R) and Democratic challenger James Webb are virtually tied in a race that could shift the balance of power in Washington and reinforces the differences between Northern Virginia and the rest of the commonwealth, according to a new Washington Post poll.
Allen gets 49 percent, compared with 47 percent for Webb, within the 3 percentage point margin of error for the poll conducted over three days last week. With few respondents saying they are undecided and most seemingly locked in for their candidate, the poll indicates that the candidates' strategic decisions on supporter turnout will be vital and that changes in the national political climate could tilt the outcome...
But the poll contains plenty of concern for the former Navy secretary and author from Falls Church. Webb owns a solid lead only in Northern Virginia, and his supporters as a group are far less enthusiastic about his candidacy than are Allen's voters.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
If the WaPo is willing to say Allen's up by 2, I'd say he's really up by 7.
Very similar to the Bush and Kerry numbers in the runup to the 2004 election. Even when Kerry was leading in the polls, he only rarely exceeded 45-46 percent. Bush, on the on the hand, had several leads at 49-52 percent.
If 46 percent is Webb's high water mark after Macacagate, he's unlikely to improve significantly on that number. The final resut is likely to be 53-47 or 52-48.
Once in a while Webb will say something more moderate than most democrats. For example, at the last debate he actually said he agreed with Allen's vote on the estate tax (exempting the first 5 mil). Of course, Webb's party FILIBUSTERED that, and Webb has said nothing against them.
Mostly Webb talks a little like a republican, and again the democrats give him a pass because they know once he gets to the senate he won't fight them.
Webb's real problem is his Iraq policy is nonsense, even for the "cut and run" crowd. He wants to shut down the billion-dollar bases we built IN iraq, and build new billion-dollar bases in Jordan and Kuwait, from which we would deploy I guess tens of thousands of troops into Iraq whenever they are needed.
Oddly, he just complained that our current deployment makes it impossible for us to have a rapid deployment for new terror threats -- but his plan would require us to straing our rapid deployment capabilities just to perform the Iraq mission which right now is done with fixed forces.
Here's the most important piece of info: "Allen's favorable rating in Post polls of likely voters has plunged from 63 percent last fall to 53 percent today..."
It's not the "plunge" that matters. It's the fact that he's still over 50% favorable. The spinners at the Post know that when an incumbent has a favorable rating of 50% or more, his chances of being re-elected are excellent.
Of course, they can't bring themselves to admit this.
I'm thinking a 51-49 nailbiter. But a win is a win, and if you can win after the media declares all talk about you except charges of racism off-limits, you are doing good.
I['ve never seen so many journalists insist on asking the same questions over and over even after they have been answered.
Reminds me of the way they keep saying that President Bush hasn't explained what victory means in Iraq.
Not bad as virtual ties go.
A "virtual tie" after WaPo polled their news room.
Ha ha, which part of the 11,160 miles of beach front are you selling?
"All of you punks of the MSM who happen to lurk on this site...........YOU SUCK and would not know journalism if it bit you on the ass."
Well said!! And they're going to cry and sob when Allen kick's Webb's ass. BUMP!
Though George Allen has taken the hits so far, courtesy of leftist thugs and the WAPO, Webb may be in for somehing of a bumpy ride himself. Check out this blog....
http://vamdpoliticalmuddle.com
Seems Webb's got "Slick Willie" problems!
Allen WILL WIN.
You know, one of these days I'm gonna get the hang of this posting stuff:
The blog I want y'all to check out is:
http://vamdpoliticalmuddle.blogspot.com
Forgive my mistake - but I was so ticked when I read what was on that blog, I hurried and got the web address wrong!
Allen will win. >56% of the vote
That sounds about right to me. I was thinking 54% for Allen.
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