Posted on 10/14/2006 9:48:44 AM PDT by GodGunsGuts
'The US housing bubble will disappear'
By Laurie Osborne, Editor
Published 11th Sep 2006
That the US housing bubble will disappear someday is a certainty. That it will blow up catastrophically is a fair bet, warns The Daily Reckoning's Bill Bonner.
Observing recent statistics, Bonner calls the evidence "formidable".
The total value of residential property in developed countries rose by more than $30 trillion, to $70 trillion, over the past five years – eclipsing the combined GDPs of those nations.
Consumer spending and residential construction have accounted for 90 percent of the total growth in the American GDP over the last four years, and more than 40 percent of all private-sector jobs created since 2001 have been in housing-related sectors, including construction and mortgage brokering.
America made some of its biggest gains this past year, with average prices of homes rising 12.5% in the year and prices in Florida, California, Nevada, Hawaii, Maryland and Washington, DC, rising more than 20 percent, while in Palm Beach County, Florida, it rose over 35%. Sales of existing homes in the US set a new high at 7.18 million in April.
Some foreign countries showed bigger gains than the US in the last year, with prices up by 23.6 percent in South Africa, 19 percent in Hong Kong and over 15 percent in Spain and France. But average house prices have actually fallen by 7% in Australia since 2003; Sydney's bubblicious prices have plunged by 16%. In Britain, sales have contracted by a third from last year and have also slowed down in Ireland, the Netherlands and New Zealand. In Britain and Australia, these declines followed what were only very modest interest rate increases.
23 percent of all American houses bought last year were for investment and in Miami, one speculation hot spot, 70% of condo buyers are investors/speculators.
Last year, 42 percent of America's first-time buyers – and 25 percent of all buyers – put no money down.
In California, 60 percent of all new mortgages this year are interest-only or negative-amortization.
House prices in relation to rent have hit all-time highs in the US, Britain, Australia, New Zealand, France, Spain, the Netherlands, Ireland and Belgium. In the US, the ratio is 35 percent above its 1975-2000 average. The price to rent ratio is a cardinal indicator of over valuation.
You just proved my point, Fiat. Gold has a long way to go before the current gold bull runs its course.
I think that's the first time I have ever agree with you, Toddler. Maybe it time to get out of gold!
Why would I do that? Unlike you, I don't make investment recommendations.
Hmmm...How many ING charts have you posted lately? LOL!
Who says that your only choices are to pay ridiculous amounts of money for an overpriced house or be homeless?
I own two houses free and clear but I am now renting a house where the waves of the sea shore are 15 yards away from this computer.
If you find good value in a certain property that's for sale, buy it. If you find good value in a certain rental property, rent it.
However, don't pay ridiculous prices that you can only afford with extremely risky "interest only" loans on the assumption that you must either do so or be homeless.
Get out now, before your capital loss gets any bigger.
Noticed that the possee boys quietly walked away. Must be having trouble pitching hot real estate deals and teaser rate mortgages in Pennsylvania.
Just wondering, but why are all the articles that I've seen you post about the same subject? Is there any particular reason why you're repeatedly posting articles that predict a "housing bubble"?
So you have been posting ING charts ad infinitum to demonstrate your mastery of HTML?
Nice word, gloomwhoring. Sounds almost Scottish.
I disagree. I think inflation is now well under control because oil production has increased substantially in the last few years and will continue to increase, thereby reversing energy inflation. Most people on Wall Street understand this and this is the biggest reason why the stock market has been rallying since August. Advancing technology increases productivity and supplies off all products and services, and that is highly disinflationary. Once we can reduce our spending in Iraq and bring the federal deficit down even more, I think you'll see the economy really take off and the stock market continue to advance to new all time highs.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/my/comments?more=148920247
But to answer your question...The housing market is the big question in the economy right now. I think the fundamentals are all on the side of a housing bubble that will inevitably burst. I post this stuff as a challenge and a warning. A challenge to those who disagree with me, and a warning to those who are already in or thinking about taking out risky loans to take advantage of the temporary dip in interest rates.
Wow, that was close! For a minute there I thought I might be in the wrong investment. Thanks for clearing that up!
I like to show that there are investments that have done better than your shiny metal god. Especially since May. ING topped $45 yesterday. All time record high.
How's gold done since May? Has it hit a record high lately? How have those dividends been lately? LOL!
An investment that charges you 9.9% interest and monthly storage fees. Sounds like a keeper!!!
Yeah, but I keep telling you the other side of the story (and there is another side to it), but you ignore everything we say from the other side and continue to make statements with far too much certainty, such as "the fundamentals are all on the side of a housing bubble that will inevitably burst." Statements like this are vaguely pessimistic too, because you're not saying what you mean by a "bubble bursting." There's an ongoing correction in the housing market, no question about it, but it's highly unlikely that it will become the kind of crisis that you seem to be predicting.
Thanks for the investment advice.
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