Posted on 10/12/2006 7:50:51 AM PDT by TonyInOhio
On new polls suggesting that the Republicans could be, in the words of some analysts, in free fall
Let me first say I do think that we are in a very challenging environment. I think that the situation with [Rep. Mark] Foley has made it even more challenging, but ... I have not seen a significant impact in most of the races around the country and I certainly haven't seen a free fall.
The three issues that I think we're dealing with [in the polls]: first of all is the partisanship of the electorate. In the last 25 years, the electorate has ranged from plus-4 Democrat to plus-2 Republican in '02. In the most recent poll's partisanship, USA/Gallup is plus-9 Democratic electorate, ABC News is plus-11 Democratic electorate, CBS/New York Times plus-5, Newsweek plus-8, Time plus-8, AP/Ipsos plus-8. So, every one of these polls has an electorate that looks more Democratic than any electorate has looked in 25 years.
Second, the Gallup specifically is the outlier in the change in the generic ballot. The Pew poll that came out recently showed no change in the generic ballot since the Foley scandal; other national polls have shown on average a 2-point dip, the Gallup showed a 23-point dip, which I don't think is convincing.
The third issue of course is the relevance of the national polls in predicting House races and the challenge that Democrats always have is that our voters are more efficiently distributed. You saw that in the recent battleground that came out between [pollsters] Celinda Lake and Ed Goeas, which showed an 8-point Democratic advantage on the generic ballot. But in the Republican districts that the Democrats have to win to win back Congress, it was even. In the Democratic districts, it was a 21-point Democratic advantage.
Translation: "Every one of these polls is lying because they are oversampling Dems."
If we hold, I would think this would set teh Dems and the media back ....well at least for 20 months or so, until they try it all again.
Translation: "Every one of these polls is lying because they are oversampling Dems."
Wonder what the sample rate was on the poll showing a tie in the districts the Dems need to win? Is Mehlman essentially saying we have a 3-5 point lead in the seats we need to win?
My wife is entertaining a liberal houseguest which means I had to endure listening to CNN News for the first time since I don't know when.
It's everybit as bad as I had feared. They are just stirring and stirring the pot on this Foley business. They just advertised a "CNN Special Report" about how middle class America is DOOMED, I tell you, DOOMED. In short, they're obviously unashamedly pulling out all stops for the DemonRATS.
Lower than whale dreck. I need to go take a shower.
He bought junk land. Zoning and environment laws stood in the way of the land being utilized.
He sold the land to his own company for $400,000 (but kept the sale secret from the Senate reports).
That got his name off the deed.
He then used his political power to get the zoning and environmental laws changed so the land could be used for contracting. Because the land was not "linked" to Reid, no one complained about the conflict of interest.
Then, he reclaimed the land and put it back in his own name after he got the laws changed for his own personal profit, sold it because his political power was able to clear the way, and made a cool $1.5 million on the scam.
This whole Reid scandal was Reid changing laws and pulling political strings for Reid himself to make millions. It had nothing to do with the American people at all.
Even when polling mostly democrats, the "Foley scandal" is having little affect on people voting in their own districts. Who's going to change their party affiliation because of some gay perv in Florida?
He only matters in his own home district. They have to chose a new guy.
Watch what the politicians do. The democrat politicians are running as Republicans. That tells you they know they're toast.
Democrats are even trying to make Republicans look like low life democrats! "Don't vote for that Republican! He's too much like a democrat! I'm a democrat, but the best Republican to vote for in this election."
"I read somewhere (no source sorry) that Ken Mehlman was going to be either the first or second name mentioned in the next few weeks that the Rogers guy is going to "kick out of the closet". I didn't give it much concern which is why I don't even remember the source." ~ napscoordinator
Don't doubt it. The twisted sex-obsessed neurotics who post at sites like these two mentioned below are bound and determined to ruin the lives of anyone they perceive to be standing in the way of their agenda.
Huffington Post 9/4/06
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jim-moore/the-closets-of-karl-and-k_b_28669.html
DailyKos 1-22-06
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/1/22/1759/64206
The one poll the MSM won't push is that over 60% are favorable to their own Reps.
I can't be polled. If I detect a computer pause when I answer the phone, I'm gone. Where do I show up? In the margin of error?
This is not a story. Reid is not a Republican.
I'm already seeing the images of the anchors on the MSM cable news channels either being elated and unable to contain themselves on election night or ready to run through windows.
I think this is going to be close and will be a long election night.
No way the predictions of a 1994 type overthrow happen here because the media is not looking at a granular level in these races as Mehlman points out here. But Republicans are going to be in a dire fight to keep both houses.
I just hope those smug smiles on the anchors faces disappear by the end of the night. I'm still holding out hope for McCarville again wearing a trash can over his head but that's a long shot.
Conservatives have demonstrated they "DON'T ASK" and they "DON'T TELL". Ah, but to OFFEND the "morals voters" with intent of swaying an election, a whole lot of liberals sure have been asking and telling to protect the children.
Imagine that, a segment of the population has been identified as 'MORAL'.
They put you down as a Dem and mark all the appropriate boxes.
I'm already seeing the images of the anchors on the MSM cable news channels either being elated and unable to contain themselves on election night or ready to run through windows.
I think this is going to be close and will be a long election night.
No way the predictions of a 1994 type overthrow happen here because the media is not looking at a granular level in these races as Mehlman points out here. But Republicans are going to be in a dire fight to keep both houses.
I just hope those smug smiles on the anchors faces disappear by the end of the night. I'm still holding out hope for McCarville again wearing a trash can over his head but that's a long shot.
The Senate is probably more vulnerable to party affiliation swings and now seems more volatile in turnover than the House. The exact opposite of what the Framers intended.
20 minutes...
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