Posted on 10/09/2006 7:52:09 PM PDT by blogblogginaway
GERTZ: U.S. doubts Korean test was nuclear; Readings fall short of atomic explosion... MORE...
U.S. intelligence agencies say, based on preliminary indications, that North Korea did not produce its first nuclear blast yesterday, WASHINGTON TIMES star reporter Bill Gertz is set to report in Tuesday editions.
U.S. officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said that seismic readings show that the conventional high explosives used to create a chain reaction in a plutonium-based device went off, but that the blast's readings were shy of a typical nuclear detonation.
'There was a seismic event that registered about 4 on the Richter scale, but it still isn't clear if it was a nuclear test. You can get that kind of seismic reading from high explosives.'
The underground explosion, which Pyongyang dubbed a historic nuclear test, is thought to have been the equivalent of several hundred tons of TNT, far short of the several thousand tons of TNT, or kilotons, that are signs of a nuclear blast, the official said. Developing...
Any chance it was a large conventional explosion to calibrate test equipment?
The great news is that we agree upon something! This is still the greatest country in the world (universe, but I am biased ;)) We have an opportunity to bring other great Americans into the fold. If we choose to seize the chance. This is a rare ability that has been granted. I believe that we should take advantage of this, by soliciting others to join.
OK, it was a test. Kim Mentally Ill said nothing about whether the test passed or failed.
This would be a terrible mistake. Even a partial yield is a problem. Russia claims that there was "some yield". This is problematic.
I know the NKs developed the No-dong missile... what would we call a Nuke that didnt make it to critical? No-Ding?
Sorry, you lost me right there. They BOTH have infinite motive to lie and deceive. Unless you have a link proving otherwise.
Well, you could get a smaller than "Typical" blast, and the lower yield estimates of this one are still within the demonstrated range of "small" nuclear explosions.
Maybe they were going to set one off then.
Deployed little more than a decade after the first nuclear explosion. Not all that advanced. And the advances actually make it easier to produce and get right. Linear/cylindrical implosion rather than spherical.
Would the U.S. hype a nuclear explosion in Mexico for example ? North Korea borders both Russia and China. Both countries have stated their disapproval of North Korea violating the International community. By hyping the explosion in North Korea, both Russia and China give Japan, Korea and Taiwan an excuse to go nuclear. That is the absolute worse case scenario for both Russia and China. Japan attacked both countries in WWII in addition to attacking Korea.
U.S. doubts Korean test was nuclear
...
"It takes days, dozens of lab hours, to evaluate results. Now we can have only a rough estimate," said Russian nuclear physicist Vladimir Orlov of the Moscow-based Center for Policy Studies in Russia, a nonproliferation think tank.
Elements of the blast were detected by U.S. and allied sensors as it was set off in an underground tunnel in the north-central part of North Korea. U.S. intelligence agencies have been monitoring several tunnels thought to be nuclear test facilities and have not ruled out Pyongyang's conducting another test.
U.S. officials said the test was timed to coincide with several anniversaries in North Korea, including the end of mourning for the death of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il's father, Kim Il-sung. The test was thought to have been linked to the commemoration.
North Korea's military thinks that joining the world's seven other acknowledged nuclear powers is key to preserving the power of the communist regime.
There were wide variations in seismic data of the North Korean blast. The French atomic agency estimated about 1 kiloton, and South Korea's geological institute said half of that. But Russia's defense minister expressed "no doubt" that North Korea detonated a nuclear test and said the force of the underground blast was equivalent to 5,000 to 15,000 tons of TNT.
"People have different ways of cross-cutting the data and interpreting them," said Lassina Zerbo, director of the International Data Center at the nuclear-test-ban preparatory commission, which is based in Vienna, Austria.
The Bush administration is pushing for the United Nations to adopt economic sanctions against North Korea that would include a blockade of all goods moving into and out of the country.
Key to the imposition of the tough sanctions will be support from China and Russia, two states that in the past opposed sanctions.
The most immediate impact of the underground test is that U.S. officials fear Japan will take steps to develop nuclear weapons as a deterrent.
Official North Korean press for the past several years has been asserting that the United States is planning a pre-emptive nuclear attack on North Korea over its secret uranium-enrichment program.
Intelligence reports from several years ago indicated that North Korea was engaged in a covert program to develop a uranium-based nuclear program with the help of Pakistani nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan. The Khan network supplied centrifuges and nuclear-weapons design techniques to Libya, Iran and North Korea.
What U.S. officials have been unable to confirm is whether North Korea received small warhead design information from the Khan network.
Chinese-language documents on how to build a nuclear warhead for missiles were found in Libya and were supplied by Khan network associates. U.S. intelligence officials think Iran and North Korea received similar warhead design documents.
North Korea in July conducted flight tests of seven missiles including a long-range Taepodong-2.
U.S. officials think the plutonium for the pit of the North Korean device was produced by the reactor at Yongbyon, the regime's declared nuclear facility.
U.S. intelligence agencies estimate that North Korea has some 88 pounds of plutonium and that about 13 pounds were used in the recent test.
The remaining plutonium is enough for North Korea to make about six bombs.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/functions/print.php?StoryID=20061009-115158-2477r
Nice slam! This is gonna piss off ol' Kim. I can hear his ol' lady now, "Is it in yet?" ;o)
The sinking of the Kursk measured 4.2.
Gee, thanks for the history and geography primer. Russia and China have never missed an opportunity to harm US interests. The ONLY reason that they "disapprove" is because we (the USA) are going to allow Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and Australia to have their own nuclear programs. Yes, Japan attacked both countries. Tough. Stalin and Pol Pot did some horrific things. The UN forced Americans to die in Korea. 54,246 give or take a few. There were some of my family in that number. Never again.
Oh man. The Democrats will be beside themselves. They will throw temper tantrums DEMANDING that we not downplay this and that we MUST meet with Crazy Kim one-on-one for serious negotiations.
Of course, to the Democrats, negotiations mean surrender so they won't be happy anyhow.
Advanced compared to the first weapons.
Thermonuclear weapons were, after all, deployed just - what - six years(?) after the first bomb.
I think that it was either a fizzle, or that it was a fake. 550 Tons is not a realistic figure for a nuclear explosion.
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