N Korea 'preparing second test'

news.com.au ^ | October 10, 2006 01:00am | From correspondents in Seoul

[Sunshine55]

SOUTH Korean authorities suspect that the communist state might be preparing a second nuclear test after unusual activities were detected in a rugged area in North Korea yesterday, a news report said.

Kim Seung-Gyu, head of South Korea's spy agency, told Parliament that activity involving vehicles and as many as 40 people was under way at Punggyeri in the northeastern county of Kilju, Yonhap news agency reported.

“From 4pm (AEST) yesterday, there have been some unusual movements under way at Punggyeri where we had thought the first nuclear test would be carried out,” Mr Kim was quoted as saying.

“We have been closely following developments there to find out whether North Korea is moving to conduct a series of tests as India and Pakistan did,” he said.

An unidentified lawmaker who serves on Parliament's intelligence committee quoted Mr Kim as telling the committee that there is a “sufficient possibility” of the North carrying out more nuclear tests.

[Kimberly GG]

I see, you do not hold Bush accountable in the least for naming them part of his axis of evil and then doing nothing, not even now, after test firing a nuke?

[1035rep]

No I don't. President Bush is certainly better informed than you are, and this is not over by a long shot.

[Steel Wolf]

Thanks for leaving us this mess Clinton.

North Korea has been swept under the rug by every administration since Truman. Much as I dislike Clinton's policies, he's hardly the only guy responsible for this mess.

[1035rep]

You're right of course, but Clinton handed this to NK.

[SE Mom]

Well...it seems they already may have done it:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1716346/posts

[Kimberly GG]

I'm not sure that being better informed will have anything to do with it when NK decides to take aim and then fire, unless, of course, NK decides to first 'inform' the rest of the word that testing time is over.

[oceanview]

we would have to preemptively nuke NK to do anything about this problem. are you in favor of that? how many americans do you think would be in favor of that? we can't even hold a majority of americans to fight the wars in afghanistan and iraq, and you expect Bush to go off and nuke NK now?

[Kimberly GG]

Where did I say anything about a preemptive NUKE strike?

[Kimberly GG]

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1716357/posts

[moose2004]

"And for those who jumped for joy that this would knock Foley off the front page...bottom line is it doesn't matter who's more to blame, Clinton or Bush, because the dems are having a field day blaming Bush for naming NK part of the axis of evil, but for not taking care of the problem before now, which is going to be much more HUGE than Foley.:

Foley will be knocked to second or third tier news, and Karl Rove/Ken Mehlman will do anything and everything to blame a nuclear NK on Clinton and Albright. I think you're going to see a lot of the pic below (click the link):

http://www.informationblast.com/images/thumb_6_67_250px-Great_Leader_Comrade_Kim_Jong_Il__28122_29.jpg

[Mo1]

That nit wit should be run out of town for what she did

[reagan_fanatic]

[RobFromGa]

From Stratfor...

Special Report: New North Korean Preparations Likely Just for Show

Summary

No sooner had the dust cleared from North Korea's first nuclear test Oct. 9 than speculation emerged about a second test. Although the North Koreans probably are capable of carrying out another test, Pyongyang can get almost as much political mileage by merely faking preparations for a second test.

Analysis

Within hours of North Korea's nuclear test Oct. 9, the head of Seoul's National Intelligence Service, Kim Seung Gyu, told South Korea's parliament that Pyongyang might be preparing a follow-on nuclear test at its Ponggye site in the country's northeast. Kim said increased activity, vehicles and personnel have been observed at the site, which was originally believed to be where the first North Korean nuclear test would take place.

The North's Oct. 9 test, now believed to have taken place in the Hwadae area, was about a 4.2 on the Richter scale, which would be consistent with more than 1,000 tons of high explosives, or one kiloton. Other estimates have put the blast at around 550 tons of high explosives. In either case, the blast was very small compared to past and current nuclear weapons.

A second nuclear test certainly is within North Korea's capabilities. It is widely believed that Pyongyang possesses six to eight nuclear devices and material enough to produce a few more.

The relatively small explosive yield of the test suggests that the North Korean device failed to function properly, though it could also mean that the North Koreans wanted to test their design on a smaller scale before conducting a full-scale test. If that is the case, Pyongyang, now confident in the effectiveness of its device, could be preparing a full-effect test.

The preparations at Ponggye cited by Kim, however, could be just for show. North Korea might be seeking to capitalize politically on the first test by making the world think a second test is imminent. This would be useful for keeping those countries that are most concerned with its nuclear capabilities -- the United States, Japan, South Korea and China -- off balance. With elections set for 2007 in South Korea and U.S. midterm elections only weeks away, the political magnitude of the North's test might exceed what was actually measured on the Richter scale.

This behavior is consistent with Pyongyang's strategy in dealing with the United States, Japan, South Korea and China, part of which is delaying a solution to the nuclear crisis for as long as possible. Keeping these countries off balance and jittery over the possibility of another test prevents them from acting decisively. The indecision keeps them from being unified in their response, and the resulting lack of unity gives North Korea time and leverage.

North Korea's intent with its first nuclear test was to shock the world and demonstrate that it has the will and capability to carry out its threats. That was accomplished. From Pyongyang's perspective, there is little need for a second test. Just about the only reason the North Koreans would have for conducting a second test is that they have constructed two types of nuclear devices -- plutonium and uranium -- and want to test them both. Given their meager resources, the North Koreans are not likely to waste material to carry out two explosions of the same type.

In this sense, the preparations at Ponggye are similar to the activity at North Korea's missile test sites in the days and weeks following the July 4 test launch of the Taepodong-2 missile. After the test launch, a second Taepodong-2 was set up in plain view of U.S. reconnaissance satellites. The speculation about follow-on launches that followed caused the same kind of political tension that Pyongyang is hoping to foster now. About a month later, the North Koreans took the missile down.

[MARKUSPRIME]

I agree with your points. Japan needs a deterant.

[silentknight]

North Korea isn't going to do anything to anybody. He doesn't want to lose power. This is nothing more than a game. The real threat is Iran. The real threat is North Korea giving these weapons or selling them to others.

North Korea won't be attacking ANYBODY.

[MARKUSPRIME]

Did I say Japan needs a deterant from NK? Nope it needs one from communist china.

[silentknight]

I wouldn't be surprised if China blessed all of this.

[familyop]

"Kim will have plenty of time to figure out how to make a warhead fly on missiles."

In the meantime, he can deliver that weapon of Pakistani design the Pakistani way: by fighter aircraft with lots of decoys around it.

Or does he only make the noise, while his recipient, Iran, plans to build up more? IMO, Iran has the money and will build more first.

Iran military engineers on hand for N. Korea missile launch
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1664760/posts

10 Iranian Missile Engineers Visited N. Korea:Sankei reports(check on NK's Chinese equipments)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1658850/posts

[bitt]

[Recovering Hermit]

Why I have bad feeling about this...

Probably because he's a nutbag with nukes.