Posted on 10/05/2006 8:58:56 PM PDT by freespirited
National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Tom Reynolds (N.Y.), who was considered a safe bet for re-election just a few weeks ago, was trailing his Democratic challenger in the first public polls released since the scandal surrounding former Rep. Mark Foley (R-Fla.) broke out.
In a related development, the Republican write-in candidate in the race to replace indicted former Rep. Tom DeLay (R-Texas) has halted plans to campaign with Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.). Reynolds, who said he brought concerns over Foley’s relationship with young pages to Hastert — and whose chief of staff resigned Wednesday over the Foley scandal — was trailing businessman Jack Davis (D) in two new polls.
Davis, a factory owner, was leading Reynolds 50 percent to 42 percent in a poll conducted for Davis by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research.
The poll of 522 likely voters was taken Oct. 3-4 and had a margin of error of 4.4 percent.
In an automated poll conducted for WGRZ-TV in Buffalo, Davis led Reynolds by 5 points.
In the Democratic poll, just 29 percent of those surveyed viewed Reynolds favorably and 39 percent viewed him unfavorably. Only 34 percent said Reynolds is doing a good job.
“The survey is sobering news for the Chairman of the Republican campaign committee and shows Reynolds’ involvement in the Foley scandal is taking a serious toll on his re-election chances,” pollster Mike Bocian wrote in a memo.
Reynolds defeated Davis 56 percent to 44 percent in their first matchup two years ago. Davis, who owns a factory that manufactures heating elements for industrial-sized furnaces, spent more than $1 million of his own money on that race, and is expected to spend liberally on this race.
But Reynolds was largely caught off guard by Davis in the previous cycle and has amassed a huge war chest and has been advertising regularly on local TV since the summer. His current ad quotes grateful constituents praising his work.
Davis is expected to begin airing ads early next week.
In a related development, AFSCME, the public employee union, is planning to spend $100,000 to air anti-Reynolds TV ads in Western New York.
Through Aug. 23, Reynolds had more than $2.8 million in his campaign account, while Davis had just $63,000.
Meanwhile, in another sign that the Foley scandal is taking its toll on Republican House leaders, Houston City Councilwoman Shelley Sekula Gibbs, the GOP write-in candidate in the race to replace DeLay, has decided not to accept Hastert’s offer to travel to Texas and help her raise money for her race against former Rep. Nick Lampson (D).
“She decided it was best to wait until after the [Foley] investigation is complete,” Sekula Gibbs campaign spokeswoman Lisa Dimond said Thursday.
Just last Sunday at a campaign appearance in Missouri City, Sekula Gibbs proudly told supporters that Hastert would be traveling to the district to help her raise some badly needed funds.
Lampson had more than $2 million on hand at the end of June.
Sekula Gibbs, who didn’t get into the race until late August, needs to catch up if she is to have a chance to win as a write-in. According to Sekula Gibbs, Majority Whip Roy Blunt (Mo.) is scheduled to raise money for her in Houston on Oct. 18 (Vice President Cheney hosted a fundraiser for her in downtown Houston on Wednesday).
DeLay resigned June 9, opening up the 22nd district seat. Sekula Gibbs was selected as the Republicans’ consensus choice to run as a write-in after a Texas Democratic Party lawsuit foiled their plans to replace DeLay on the ballot with an appointed candidate.
Reynolds is a failure as NRCC Chair
Heheh...you said "Reynolds number". /aero geek
Klabdak. Nobody was talking about Reynolds involvement until Novak's column today. This is another fake media poll...it's results were planed as much as a year ago by rat operatives.
What am I missing? Were ALL Republicans sending these phony "emails" and "IMs" to these pages or has the "media" begun "polling" only tweakers?
Folks,
A lot of posting is taking place in orchestrated fashion. It was tried out about 4 mos ago before the President's surge.
The optimal response to such things is to find ways to volunteer your time on phone banks for GOP candidates in vulnerable districts during the last 72 hrs, so make your travel arrangements now.
It really is the optimal response. The more gloomy the post, you should presume the more desperate the ploy. Just book your motel reservations early because a lot of Freepers will be doing the same thing. This was done for the President in 2004 and it translated into the unexpected victory. Phones and lit drops win elections. Not game playing.
Pick a district. Find out where the office is for the candidate. Call and ask how to volunteer. Book your motel.
Hastert wasn't running for reelection.
These numbers are still very much in play. As this unfolds looking like the Democrats made things up or exaggerated it all, the numbers will rebound.
The Democrats involved likely thought the news cycle couldn't end on this until after the election. I think now, it will largely be a dead issue by then, or even one that brings more Republican votes in than before.
ROFLMAO .....
??? Hastert is running for reelection but his opponent is young, not well-known, and operating with very little money.
I'm sorry, it's Henry Hyde who's retiring.
My bad.
Of course he is. Every member of congress has to stand for election every two years. While its true that you dont have to be a member of congress to be Speaker of the House, I dont believe anyone has held that post without being a member in a very long time, if ever. Certainly any one would couldnt get elected is unlikely to be able to be elected by his associates to Speaker.
Drag and yaw?
You want evidence that the Foley scandal has been orchestrated by the Soros backed groups and the Pelosi crowd? This story IS the evidence. This is exactly the reason for waiting to release 'evidence' from 2003 in 2006 about 30 days before the polls open.
The key word in the name of the poll is "Greenberg". This guy was clinochhio's private pollster.
Translation: "was trailing his Democratic challenger in the first TRUMPED UP MANIPULATED public polls THAT WE COULD MASSAGE TO GIVE THE ANSWERS WE WANTED."
Amen, bro. We have some here on FR who are clear DUers who have come over since the last election and whose sole goal is to use polling "analysis" and posting to depress the vote. They did learn something last time, to wit: they can't beat us if we turn out.
But was there a Green candidate on the ballot when Reynolds was elected last time?
The race is "tied" right now. Reynolds has more money, virtually unlimited and he's in a safe district. He'll win, but it will be close...52-48. Half the problem is NYS has NO organized republican party
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