Ortega Redux

Newsmax ^ | Oct. 5, 2006 | Paul Crespo

[hh007]

When Nicaraguans go to the polls on Nov. 5 to elect their next president, they may end up choosing an old-time communist – who could win without even getting a majority of the votes.

A victory by Daniel Ortega, whose brutal Sandinista rule in the Central American country ended 16 years ago, is a growing likelihood because of millions being pumped into his campaign by the stridently anti-U.S. Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez.

Add to the mix indifference from the U.S. State Department, and Chavez and Cuban dictator Fidel Castro will have a new ally in their growing axis of anti-American states south of the border.

Despite defeats at the polls in 1990, 1996, and 2001, Ortega once again is poised to head Nicaragua – he is the frontrunner among five candidates in the national elections.

"Sadly, very few Americans know what's going on in Nicaragua," said Otto Reich, former assistant secretary of state for Western Hemisphere affairs and later President Bush's special envoy for Western Hemisphere initiatives. "And what they need to know is that what's going on is definitely not good.

"Ortega and the Sandinistas represent a failed communist ideology that brought bloodshed and ruin to Nicaragua, an ideology that Ortega has never renounced."

Ortega's prior 11-year rule in Nicaragua was disastrous, with major human rights violations. Under Ortega, Nicaragua dropped to last place in Central America in socioeconomic standing.

While Nicaraguans will be the ones to suffer the most from an Ortega victory, fiercely anti-American Hugo Chavez hopes to replicate the recent electoral success of fellow radical Evo Morales in Bolivia with a similar win in Central America.

In the 1980s, Ortega gave the Soviet Union and Fidel Castro their first beachhead on the mainland of the Americas. Only after fierce resistance from the Reagan administration did the Sandinistas agree to a free election.

Reich insists that Ortega's standing in the polls is due greatly to funding received from Chavez, who is financing the Sandinistas both openly and secretly.

By providing the Sandinista mayors of many Nicaraguan towns with subsidized oil and diesel fuel, he is helping them buy votes. But Reich adds that Chavez also is funneling cash to Ortega secretly, which is illegal under Nicaraguan law. While Nicaragua allows foreign campaign contributions from private citizens, foreign government financing of candidates is strictly forbidden.

Based on reports from highly reliable sources, Reich has learned that Chavez is using Venezuelan businessmen and businessmen of other nationalities doing business with both Venezuela and Nicaragua as intermediaries to get money to Ortega.

This funding is said to be in the tens of millions of dollars, according to Reich, who expressed disappointment at the U.S. government's lack of response to these credible reports.

Meanwhile, Reich laments, "no one is giving money to the democratic candidates." Private American citizens can help counter Chavez and Castro in Nicaragua legally by donating to the democratic candidates opposed to Ortega.

Ortega and the Sandinistas are also being aided by the democratic opposition's disunity. The anti-Ortega vote is primarily divided among three candidates. Most polls place Ortega with about 30 percent of the vote, followed closely by Eduardo Montealegre with support in the 20s, and two other candidates further behind. Nearly 20 percent of respondents are undecided.

Clearly the anti-Sandinista vote surpasses the Sandinistas, but if the democratic opposition doesn't quickly unite, Ortega and the Sandinistas can win in the first round on Nov. 5, thanks to sly maneuvering by pro-Ortega forces:

Two years ago the Sandinistas and disgraced former President Arnoldo Aleman's allies in the legislature lowered the ceiling for a first-round victory from 40 percent to 35 percent in order to help Ortega. Ortega would face a tougher race in a two-candidate runoff, because he has never been able to get more than 40 percent of the vote in any election. But a strong showing among the 20 percent of voters who are presently undecided could push him over the top.

This would be devastating for the United States because it would add another ally to Chavez's growing anti-American alliance.

If Ortega wins, he can be expected to follow the Chavez model and use his power within the three branches of government to rewrite the constitution and centralize control over the entire country. The Sandinistas already have dominated Nicaragua's judiciary and some security forces since their rule in the 1980s.

With Nicaragua in Chavez's orbit, we could again see that country become a base for subversion, providing further gains for Chavez and the radical left in Central America.

Ortega is "a tiger who hasn't changed his stripes," U.S. Ambassador to Nicaragua Paul Trivelli told Nicaraguan reporters. The ambassador has made it clear that an Ortega victory would cause Washington to "re-evaluate" relations.

And Stephen Johnson of The Heritage Foundation said, "If Ortega wins, there will be a wall around Nicaragua as far as relations with Washington are concerned."

[Thunder90]

ping

[StJacques]

A Latin American Left Watch ping for you all.

Anyone wishing to be included on the ping list may either ping me from this thread or contact me via Freepmail.

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By way of comment, the lesson the right will learn in Nicaragua is that it cannot afford to divide itself in the face of the radical Left. This mistake has been repeated in several countries after Chavez came to power under these circumstances in Venezuela. In Bolivia the right has learned too late, in Chile they are regrouping, and in Mexico they are learning that they will have to unite with the center, after just squeaking by Lopez Obrador's PRD in a very close election.

Most opinion polls suggest that Ortega will likely take first place with just over 40% of the vote, if that much. Meanwhile, the two rightist parties -- we would actually call them "centrist," but compared with Ortega they are significantly to his right -- are attacking each other. It's a major mistake.

And Thunder90, thank you for the ping.

[Thunder90]

The thing is that Orbidor could still get control of Mexico anyway if he plays his cards right. It is not good south of the border.

[proud_yank]

PING – Hugo is at it again!

Please FReepmail me if you would like on/off the Hugo/Venezuela Ping list.

HugoPing Archive

[dfwgator]

Birds of a feather.

[RasterMaster]