Allen and Talent win. I think Santorum pulls it out. Menedez may have to withdraw.
I hope the Left trusts MSNBC. How about that exit polling Kerry?
I go with Rasmussen. Even on the bad days:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/BalanceofPower.htm
I have a feeling that Foley was the 'straw'.
That the races might be tightening, I will buy. That the dems will win enough to gain control is a harder sell.
"Each state poll was conducted by phoning 625 likely voters in the final week of September"
What are the chances that those were "registered" voters?
I love how w hen republicans are tied with democrats or close, the media makes no acknowledgement of it. (like our minnesota, washington, new jersey and maryland races) Just saying that democrats are ahead or republicans have no chance.
Hmm, funny thing. Gallup just did a 48&D-48%R LIKELY voter poll. They found all this supposed Democrat strenth VANISHES when you quit over sampling Democrats in your Junk Polling.
Another intresting thing. Even a significant portion of Democrats do NOT agree this election is all about Bush. In Gallup's last poll of 48%D-48%R Likely voters, only 32% of respondents felt their vote this November 7th, would be a vote against the President.
SO even 1/3 of Democrats do not buy the Democrat Noise Machine's propaganda that it is all about Bush. But then I guess we should not be too hard on the Democrats. Their pets in the American Junk Media skipped right over this part of the poll. The only people who even mentioned this aspect of the last Gallup poll were the European press and then they only mentioned it in passing.
The Dems would have to run the table to pull this out. I think they are being a bit optomistic on several of the races, but they do have an outside chance.
I don't see voters changing their life long core values because of a little blip here or a little blip there. A conservative wouldn't vote for a high tax, failing school, pro-homo, pro-abort, fascist health care liberal just because Bush mispronounced a word.
Voters will vote like they always have. The election will depend on which party gets out the voters, and I see the democrats acting like blithering, hate filled idiots. My guess is the conservatives and traditional Americans will come out to vote just so the whining, bitchy democrats don't get any more seats. Lord knows they've got too many already.
Remember it is the media's job to make this thing look closer than it truly is. If the GOP gets their base out, Republicans hold serve.
I wonder what the ratio of dems/Repubs/Independents was in these polls? I think pollsters, even Scott Rasmussen, oversample dems. Remember the last Harris Poll in 2004, the one a few days before the election that had Kerry up 9 or so points over Bush? The MSM wants everyone to believe the dems have all the momentum, that they have this massive powerful get out the vote machine (our is vastly superior, i.e. Ohio 2004), that the public is totally put out by the Repubs (the dems' numbers are just as bad) and that a dem "tidal wave" is going to hit the Repubs this fall because of Mark Foley (Norah O'Donnell on MSNBC at 11:05AM this morning).
Go on, Dems, keep thinking that Menendez is leading.
McClatchy Newspapers and MSNBC = Not Credible news sources.
Don't let their weighted polls convince you that it's hopeless and you might as well stay home, people.
The same with their exit polling.
VOTE!
This has to be the only poll I've seen with the Dems having a "slight edge in New Jersey". It's either been neck-and-neck or Kean by 5.