I wonder what the ratio of dems/Repubs/Independents was in these polls? I think pollsters, even Scott Rasmussen, oversample dems. Remember the last Harris Poll in 2004, the one a few days before the election that had Kerry up 9 or so points over Bush? The MSM wants everyone to believe the dems have all the momentum, that they have this massive powerful get out the vote machine (our is vastly superior, i.e. Ohio 2004), that the public is totally put out by the Repubs (the dems' numbers are just as bad) and that a dem "tidal wave" is going to hit the Repubs this fall because of Mark Foley (Norah O'Donnell on MSNBC at 11:05AM this morning).
Remember the last Harris Poll in 2004, the one a few days before the election that had Kerry up 9 or so points over Bush?"
Everyone keeps saying how the polls showed Kerry up late in 2004. I don't recall that at all.
I recall it being within 1 or 2 points, and then in the final few days, GWB being up 1 or 2.
I do recall that the exit polls were showing a huge Kerry victory, which, in theory, would not have been inconsistent with the extremely close polls at the end of the camapign. We now know that those exit polls were manipulated in an effort to help Kerry. (Unlike the exit polls in 2000 which showed, correctly, Gore winning a very small majority of the "popular vote").
I think there is a lot of revision history going on to bad mouth polls in order to make people feel better. But then again, maybe my memory of 2004 is not accurate.
I do also recall that the Gallup national polls are almost always dead on in that the final poll ends up being within the margin of error of the final nationwide Presidential percentages (for whatever that is worth...seeing as Senate races are not nationwide, but local...and even more so in this cycle).
A final thought: just as it can be argued that many pollsters oversample Dems., they probably also under estimate the extent of St. Louis corruption, which is good for 3 % statewide (in my opinion).
Talent is going to have an uphill climb, friends.
The MSM does give the impression of looking around wildly for the "thing" that will spell doom for the Repbulicans. Their reporting has almost become comical. Its Fitzmas all over again.