Remember the last Harris Poll in 2004, the one a few days before the election that had Kerry up 9 or so points over Bush?"
Everyone keeps saying how the polls showed Kerry up late in 2004. I don't recall that at all.
I recall it being within 1 or 2 points, and then in the final few days, GWB being up 1 or 2.
I do recall that the exit polls were showing a huge Kerry victory, which, in theory, would not have been inconsistent with the extremely close polls at the end of the camapign. We now know that those exit polls were manipulated in an effort to help Kerry. (Unlike the exit polls in 2000 which showed, correctly, Gore winning a very small majority of the "popular vote").
I think there is a lot of revision history going on to bad mouth polls in order to make people feel better. But then again, maybe my memory of 2004 is not accurate.
I do also recall that the Gallup national polls are almost always dead on in that the final poll ends up being within the margin of error of the final nationwide Presidential percentages (for whatever that is worth...seeing as Senate races are not nationwide, but local...and even more so in this cycle).
A final thought: just as it can be argued that many pollsters oversample Dems., they probably also under estimate the extent of St. Louis corruption, which is good for 3 % statewide (in my opinion).
Talent is going to have an uphill climb, friends.
The polls we're seeing now are push polls. The results depend on who's paying for the poll. As we get closer to the election, the polls will become more accurate. The pollsters have to be close at the end or they'll be out of a job.
Remember, also, polls are taken by old fashioned land line telephone. What party has more people sitting around the telephone waiting for their drug dealers and pimps to call? What party has people too busy with their families, churches, jobs , and modern technology to take care of irritating things like soliciting phone calls?
Always add at least 5 points to Republicans. They're too hard to contact. A break down of polled respondents always has the numbers democrat heavy, and some of them even lie and say they're Republicans thinking they're doing it for the benefit their their mutable liberal gods (democrats are weird people).
"Everyone keeps saying how the polls showed Kerry up late in 2004. I don't recall that at all.
I recall it being within 1 or 2 points, and then in the final few days, GWB being up 1 or 2."
Harris changed their methodology during the 2004 campaign by further upping the already dem-heavy sampling they were using in their polling. Their office is in upstate New York, and I called them after their ridiculous end of the campaign poll came out and asked them how they came up with their ludicrous methodology. I was told their "research" showed them that the dems had signed up "millions" of new voters and that the dems were much more motivated and eager to vote then the Repubs. They also told me about the dems much vaunted "get out the vote effort." Obviously they were wrong. I don't doubt it's going to be a real fight, and the Repubs better pour money into these tight races during these final weeks. I also hope and pray our "get out the vote effort" is ready and raring to go.
Will the Republicans retain the House: Yes or No.
Will the Republicans retain the Senate: Yes or No.
No "buts" and "caveats" are allowed in the answer.