Posted on 09/29/2006 11:10:42 AM PDT by Alex1977
MILLVILLE, N.J. - It wasn't supposed to be this hard for Democrat Robert Menendez.
New Jersey's political history, campaign cash and national dissatisfaction with the Republican-led Congress are all in his favor as he tries to win the Senate seat he took by appointment from the governor in January.
But here he is, locked in an apparent dead heat with Republican challenger Tom Kean Jr., and having to campaign in unlikely places such as a seafood festival down a gravel road in southern rural New Jersey, far from his base in the urban north.
Menendez has run smack into the Kean family name, and that means a real fight.
Kean's father, Thomas, was twice elected governor in this heavily Democratic state and is still revered by many. And thanks to the elder Kean's chairmanship of the Sept. 11 commission, the Kean name has been sinking into voters' minds.
On a door-to-door trip in the well-to-do community of Old Tappan on the New York state border, several residents thought Kean, 38, was already in Congress. And his family connection has won him the support of registered Democrat Margaret Baer.
"I will vote for you because I like your dad," Baer said.
That scenario repeats itself as Kean travels the state. Kean does not speak of his father as he campaigns, and only mentions him when he's asked.
"He's a great dad," Kean says quickly when asked about his father's influence over voters. A recent poll showed that 8 percent of registered voters thought Kean Jr., was governor.
The Republican's criticisms of President Bush seem to have helped him, too.
Recent polls indicated the race was essentially a tie even though the national Republican Party has yet to give Kean any money. National Democrats gave $550,000 to the state party committee, which plans to use the cash to get out the vote for Menendez. Pundits had figured Menendez would run away with the contest.
"The Democratic trend in the state has really been very strong," said Rutgers University political scientist Ross Baker. "I think it would really take a situation or a Republican candidate of such dramatic quality to reverse that."
Menendez has had to play defense against several corruption allegations, including criticism for leasing a building he owned to a nonprofit agency he later helped with federal funds. The U.S. attorney in New Jersey, a Republican appointee, has subpoenaed the agency's records.
On Thursday, Menendez severed ties with a close political adviser after a 1999 telephone conversation was released showing the adviser using Menendez's name for political gain. Menendez said the adviser acted without his authorization.
On the campaign trail recently, Menendez, 52, does not mention any of the corruption allegations — he has denied all of them publicly — nor his opponent in his short speech to the festival crowd in Millville. Instead, he sketches out his 32 years in politics as a mayor, state legislator and congressman.
He plugs a motor sports park that may be built in the town, calling it a great economic opportunity. The crowd is warm but not everyone is won over.
"I'm just waiting to see how they both fare on various issues," says registered Democrat Lendel Jones of Cinnaminson.
Jones and others at the festival say they're bothered by corruption allegations raised by both sides. Menendez has questioned Kean's ethics, arguing he has used his family name unlawfully to raise campaign cash. Kean and his father have denied it.
"That's a part of the reason I'm still undecided," Jones said. "I don't think there's any need for people to start getting personal. If anything, they should keep it above board and stick to the issues."
But in Old Tappan, Rosemarie DePhillips, a registered Republican, said the corruption issue is why she's voting for Kean, whom she incorrectly thought was a congressman.
"It's embarrassing to go out of town and say you're from New Jersey, and people say 'Oh, that corrupt place,'" DePhillips said. "Tom Kean's father was such a wonderful governor and I think the apple doesn't fall far from the tree."
DePhillips was still glowing from meeting Kean after he left her doorstep. His boyish charm works well one-on-one but can convey inexperience before a crowd. Kean entered politics in 2001 when he was elected to the state Assembly. He currently is a state senator and has one failed run at Congress in his past.
Kean sounds nervous and rehearsed at the same time as he speaks at an Oakland senior center to women finishing a yoga class. The crowd listens politely but when one woman's cell phone rings, two women run out to answer it.
The candidates come from very different places. Menendez's parents emigrated from Cuba and he grew up in a Union City tenement. Kean spent eight years of his childhood living in the governor's mansion.
Menendez was the first in his family to go to college; Kean University in Union is named for the Kean family.
They share some positions, however. Both support abortion rights, embryonic stem-cell research and tough gun control laws. And both have criticized Bush for his administration's handling of the war in Iraq and called for Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld to resign. Menendez voted against sending troops to Iraq in 2002; Kean has said he would have voted for the war at the time.
Menendez has raised about $7.4 million for the race, more than triple the amount raised by his opponent, and is campaigning in a state with more registered Democrats than Republicans, a large number of unaffiliated voters who lean Democratic, and Democrats in charge in the legislature and the governor's office.
These Democratic tendencies have united the party behind Menendez as the GOP furiously tries to fan speculation that the senator will be replaced because of the corruption allegations.
"The rumors are generated by Republicans in their fantasy of trying to get me off the ballot," Menendez said Friday in an interview. "I am in this race to win and in it to the end."
Gov. Jon Corzine, who appointed Menendez to the seat, said the senator is his choice through the election, spokesman Anthony Coley said Friday. Rep. Robert Andrews (news, bio, voting record), D-N.J., mentioned as a possible replacement, said Thursday, "the governor and the party leaders are both behind Menendez and so am I."
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On the Net:
http://www.tomkean.com
http://www.menendez2006.com.
That said, I very much doubt Kean will win, I would give it maybe a 1 in 3 chance right now. Unless Kean is up 10 points the day before the election he'll lose.
my parents were good republicans, but they been voting straight democratic ticket in Bayonne NJ ever since they passed away.
ibtd...Menendez has 3x the cash of Kean and, though he is advertising now, can only manage a "tie." Once Kean starts to ad blitz in the last two weeks this contest will swing.
I agree he needs to be ten pts ahead in polls b4 E-day.
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