Posted on 09/29/2006 4:34:13 AM PDT by Alex1977
The conservative People's Party (VP) kept its lead over the opposition Social Democrats (SP) in opinion polls a few days before Austria's October 1 elections. But the margin had recently been narrowing, according to opinion pollsters quoted on Thursday.
Wolfgang Bachmayer of the OGM institute said one reason was the BAWAG bank scandal which was no longer only an issue for the SP. According to a recent poll, 45 per cent of Austrians believed the People's Party was also affected.
The BAWAG scandal of bad investments and massive losses had brought the SP down from its lead in the polls in spring this year, and put the VP ahead. The bank is owned by the Trade Union Federation (OEGB), which is in turn dominated by the Social Democrats.
At the weekend, it became known that in 2003 VP Chancellor Wolfgang Schuessel had travelled to Sofia at the invitation of the BAWAG. The opposition criticized the visit while Schuessel defended it.
Bachmayer said the election results could differ from the projections depending on how many of the parties' supporters would actually take part in the vote.
Fessel-GfK analyst Peter Ulram said he expected "quite a high" number of people to vote for a different party than in the last elections in 2002. The percentage of voters the two biggest parties would lose would also decide the struggle for first place.
Recent polls gave the VP ratings from 37 to 39 per cent. The SP had 35 per cent.
According to opinion pollsters, up to 15 per cent of the electorate still did not know who they would vote for.
In most cases, they would choose between two parties, said Imma Palme of the IFES institute.
Her colleague Werner Beutelmeyer of the "market" institute said about ten per cent would decide shortly before voting, some of them in the polling booths.
The Greens and the right-wing Freedom Party (FP) competed for third place, with the former slightly ahead in some polls.
However, both Beutelmeyer and his colleague Fritz Karmasin of the Gallup institute saw chances for the Freedom Party to catch up on the Greens. Many people would not declare themselves FP supporters, Beutelmeyer pointed out.
The independent list of Hans-Peter Martin and the Alliance for the Future of Austria (BZ) were slightly over or slightly under the four per cent hurdle for parliamentary representation in most polls.
Experts differed about whether voter turnout on October 1 would be higher or lower than the 84 per cent in 2002.
Referring to negative campaigning, Palme said she believed fewer voters would go to the polls.
On the contrary, opinion pollster Bachmayer expected voter turnout to be slightly higher than last time. The election campaign had been "very exciting," he argued.
Also this:
Immigration, welfare dominate Austrian poll campaign By Ivonne Marschall
Deutsche Presse-Agentur dpa
Published: Friday September 29, 2006
By Ivonne Marschall, Vienna- Campaigning for parliamentary polls in Austria on October 1 has seen two main issues come to the fore: immigration and the decline of the welfare state. Six parties are competing for 183 seats in parliament, with the main contenders being the ruling People's Party (VP) and the opposition Social Democrats (SP).
Critics have described pre-election campaigning as thin on substance and lacking in concrete proposals. The campaign has additionally been painted as probably the dirtiest in Austria's history, filled with personal attacks, rumours spread via the internet and blatant populism from all quarters.
Campaign posters featured demands to "Oust 300,000 Immigrants" while electioneering calls for "Home not Islam," or "Safe Pensions, not Asylum-millions," were heard.
The tone for the elections was set by the in-fight between two right-wing parties, the Freedom Party (FP) and the Alliance for the Future of Austria (BZ), both intimately linked to extreme right populist Joerg Haider.
Haider, Austria's most notorious politician of recent years, split from the Freedom Party in spring 2005, formed the BZ with some trusty vassals and took over the FP's position in Austria's conservative coalition government.
BZ leader Peter Westenthaler and his FP counterpart Heinz- Christian Strache - a younger, slicker Haider clone - tried to cash in on voter discontent and anti-immigrant feelings. Their approval rates were however a far cry from right-wing heydays in 1999, when the FP won 27 per cent of the vote and entered a coalition government with the conservative VP.
The campaign's second dominating issue social security was linked directly to the xenophobe populism of the right.
Despite living in one of Europe's most affluent countries, Austrians fear that immigrants take away jobs, get too many social benefits, are responsible for the raise in crime levels and are not willing to integrate.
Meanwhile the ruling VP has been criticised for focussing its election platform on the personality of Chancellor Wolfgang Schuessel, to the detriment of communicating a clear policy agenda.
Schuessel is an outspoken critic of Turkey's accession to the EU, a view shared with the opposition Social Democrats.
The SP, which is poised to retain its ranking as the second strongest party in the country, spent most of the campaign trying to disassociate itself from the BAWAG banking scandal.
The bank, now for sale, was controlled by the socialist-dominated unions. Several SP party members became embroiled in a scandal over the collapse of elaborate speculation deals that brought the bank close to collapse.
Among the party's election promises were pledges to secure the welfare state, protect pensions and redistribute wealth to middle- and lower-income citizens.
The Greens were the only party openly campaigning for immigrants' rights. The party also advocated alternative energy sources, gender equality and the abolition of university fees.
© 2006 DPA - Deutsche Presse-Agentur dpa
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