[StJacques]

Tossing down poll results among Freepers is like feeding raw meat to zoo animals; we know how to tear them up. The fact that the polls were conducted by the opposition candidate's campaign leads us to think that there is an attempt to spin the results in their favor; the absence of hard numbers, which may be the newspaper's fault, does not encourage us; and our own knowledge of Chavez's ability to use intimidation -- note that the above article makes clear that "the fear of reprisals" could skew the results -- does not give us much hope that Rosales will be able to mount a successful challenge. But I have been paying attention to the Venezuelan election campaign somewhat and I'm going to suggest that the results released in the above article are believable.

There is external evidence from independent pollsters that Rosales is gaining ground fast on Chavez. It was only last month that the opposition parties united around Rosales, and the numbers from independent pollsters then placed his support at something like 17% to 19% and over thirty-five percent behind Chavez. Two very recent independent polls now suggest the situation is quite different. The recent release of a Hinterlaces Poll has it Chavez 48% Rosales 30%, and a Penn, Schoen and Berland Poll has it 50%-37% Chavez. When framed in the context of these two recent independent opinion polls, the above report from the Rosales campaign looks credible.

To digest these results, we must keep both population distribution and geography in mind. Most of the nine states listed are not very populous, as Venezuela's population is primarily located in the northern areas of the country, especially around Caracas. The U.S. Department of State's Venezuela Information Page says that 85% of Venezuela's 26+ million people are concentrated in urban areas in the northern portion of the country. Obviously, the Federal District of Caracas is the most densely populated as are its adjoining regions. But even then, the claims of the Rosales campaign bear closer examination, as the following map of Venezuelan states demonstrates.

Venezuela States Map	States Rosales Claims to Lead
	Amazonas Apure Carabobo Delta Amacuro Falcon Lara Miranda Tachira Zulia
	States Rosales Claims a "Technical Tie"
	Bolivar Guarico
	State Rosales Claims to be Gaining Ground
	Vargas

So as you can see, there are reasons to be hopeful given that there is a large geographical area in which Rosales is gaining popularity and in the states of Carabobo, Miranda, Guarico, and Vargas he is beginning to penetrate the most populous areas of the country.

I want to be clear that I do not believe that Rosales will be able to win the election because I am convinced that Chavez has corrupted the electoral process to a degree significant enough to guarantee his victory. But at the same time I believe that it is possible for Rosales to make a strong enough showing that Chavez and his regime will not be able to execute their electoral crimes in the dark and THAT is where things will turn south for Chavez and his regime, both within Venezuela and especially abroad on the international stage. I do intend to keep an eye on this in the future.

[StJacques]

For everyone interested, I am putting together a "Latin American Left Watch" ping list, which will not only include Chavez and Venezuela, but other Latin American Left issues such as the FARC in Colombia, Morales in Bolivia, and more. If anyone would like to be on this list you can either ping me on this thread or Freepmail me and I will include you.

P.S. - If you were pinged to this post I've got you on it.

[MikeA]

Well, the vote fraud efforts and the attempts to intimidate and even kill Rosales supporters by Hugo Chavez thugs will now have to kick into high gear!

[M1Tanker]

Looking at Chavez's past actions, I see a fatal "accident" heading for Rosales. Chavez, like 99.999% of all dictators, hates competition and like the same majority of socialists/communists, he cannot see why anyone would oppose him. Therefore Chavez imprisons them or simply executes them for the "good of the State and people".

The capitalization of "State" and not "people" reflects the true feelings and policies highlighting what is more important to a socialist/communist or any other dictator (like islamofacists).

[N. Beaujon]

There is no such thing as a non-rigged election in a Latin American country. Wont happen.

[Gay State Conservative]

This guy had better pray that El Commandante gets at least 90% of the vote,otherwise....well,the Amazon region is wide,desolate and dangerous.

[Brilliant]

I think Chavez is going to have to commit a Venezuelan holocaust before he'll be ousted.

[conservative in nyc]

Venezuelan State Population figures from Wikipedia (Rosales claimed leading states in bold). If the figures are correct, Rosales claims to lead in states with about 48% of the Venezuelan population, and be technically tied in states with another 8.25% or so:

By population # State Population (2005 estimates)

1 Zulia 3,520,376 13.1
2 Miranda 2,789,073 10.3
3 Ven.Cap.Dist. 2,284,291 8.5
4 Carabobo 2,106,264 8.38
5 Lara 1,751,625 6.75
6 Aragua 1,629,433 6.28
7 Bolívar 1,490,612 5.58
8 Anzoátegui 1,440,876 5.3
9 Táchira 1,145,374 4.5
10 Sucre 895,978 3.53
11 Falcón 877,386 3.45
12 Portuguesa 848,259 3.34
13 Monagas 828,363 3.26
14 Mérida 819,760 3.1
15 Barinas 730,407 2.87
16 Guárico 723,965 2.85
17 Trujillo 691,908 2.58
18 Yaracuy 499,049 2.16
19 Apure 457,685 1.79
20 Nueva Esparta 426,337 1.66
21 Vargas 329,447 1.29
22 Cojedes 291,234 1,14
23 Delta Amacuro 149,427 0.42
24 Amazonas 136,506 0.3

[Antoninus]

Elections in Venezuela are a joke. The only way Chugo will ever leave office is in a box after receiving hot lead therapy. He's a commie. Rule #1 for commie dictators is "Don't leave office voluntarily."

[zbigreddogz]

Umm, it wouldn't matter if he were 80pts ahead. Elections in Venezuela have been corrupted beyond recognition in Venezuela. They had problems before Chavez, but he basically ruined them.

It's amazing how much easier it is to win when your political appointees run every polling place and you can add fictitious names to the voter rolls anytime you want.

[Shuttle Shucker]

Hi Saint:
Although I need to focus exclusively on Mexico due to time-constraints, I welcome being on any ping list you have for our neighbor. Meanwhile, for the sigh column... a fight between PANistas & ObraGorians just ensued where Felipe was...

http://www.el-universal.com.mx/notas/377532.html

[kesg]

There is going to be an election in Venezuela? That's news to me. It would be even bigger news if it was actually fair and honest under current conditions.

[BLS]

"Venezuelan Election: Chavez's Opponent Manuel Rosales Gains Ground in Race (Translation)"


If Rosales wasa threat, he'd already be room temperature.