Pakistan Surrenders; The Taliban control the border with Afghanistan.

The Weekly Standard ^ | 10/02/2006, Volume 012, Issue 03 | Daveed Gartenstein-Ross & Bill Roggio

[dynoman]

INTELLIGENCE ANALYSTS woke up on September 5 to unsettling news. The government of Pakistan, they learned, had entered into a peace agreement with the Taliban insurgency that essentially cedes authority in North Waziristan, the mountainous tribal region bordering Afghanistan, to the Taliban and al Qaeda. Just ten days later, the blow was compounded when the government of Pakistan released a large number of jihadists from prison. Together, these events may constitute the most significant development in the global war on terror in the past year--yet the media have taken little notice.

For four years, the Pakistani military engaged in a campaign to assert governmental control over Wazir istan. The cost to Pakistan has been considerable; some intelligence sources believe this fighting has exacted a higher death toll on the Pakistani military than U.S. forces have sustained in Iraq. It is in this context that Pakistan gave up on South Waziristan last spring, abandoning its effort to control that area. Thereafter, sharia law was declared in South Waziristan, and the Taliban began to rule openly.

[dynoman]

More at link.

I wonder if this will allow the coalition more freedom to operate in that region.

[GAB-1955]

At worst, Pakistan may actively defend the tribal regions. I suspect they're just going to withdraw from the area, giving the Taliban a sanctuary. This has already changed the war for the worse in Afghanistan. We can hold what we have, but the only way to stop tribals in the Northwest Frontier Provinces is to kill them all, and we can't do that.

[LibLieSlayer]

That is indeed the reason according to the "scuttlebutt".

LLS

[EQAndyBuzz]

I believe that a case of ebola in this region would probably solve a lot of problems.

[mewzilla]

I wonder if this will allow the coalition more freedom to operate in that region.

Well, if there are no Pakistani troops in the region, then that takes care of the risk of accidentally plugging them. And makes for fewer witnesses. Sounds good to me.

[mewzilla]

Wonder if this explains the French report on UBL's alleged demise....

[A. Pole]

I wonder if this will allow the coalition more freedom to operate in that region.

It all depends on good will of Iran. The core of anti-Taleban forces is Northern Alliance sponsored by Iran (and to some extent by Russia). It was the Northern Alliance which provided the bulk of anti-Taleban forces to help US intervention.

[Recon Dad]

My question about the "autonomous" territories has always been, if the Pakistanis can't control it why do we honor Pakistani sovereignty? I would think free fire zone would be a more apt description.

[dynoman]

This agreement would make them bold.

Let them regroup thinking they are getting away with it, then hammer them, let them regroupthinking they are getting away with it, them hammer them, etc. etc.

It is the senario that makes sense, in fact in this light even the release of the 2500 makes some sense, watch where they go.

[mission9]

Musharef feels pretty secure in his present position, traveling to NY and doing a book deal, appearing in a joint news conference with the President. That doesn't sound like he is cowering in fear of the Taliban.

[dynoman]

What % of war is deception??

[neb52]

Would the introduction of Californian Organic Spinach be considered Biological Warfare?

[GAB-1955]

It's pretty mountainous and not conducive to large-unit tactics. Instead, we need to send in A and B teams to hunt and kill the terrorists. This is a time to pull out the Selous Scouts playbook and turn some of the Taliban.

[neb52]

"My question about the "autonomous" territories has always been, if the Pakistanis can't control it why do we honor Pakistani sovereignty? I would think free fire zone would be a more apt description."

I guess to give the Pakis a chance to reclaim the area, that they have obviously failed at.

[GAB-1955]

No. It's Liberal Foolishness.

[GAB-1955]

What % of war is deception??

If I told you, it would be a wrong figure.

[mission9]

Are you suggesting that his new book is full of lies? I am shocked, shocked that GAMBLING is going on in this Casino.

[fso301]

More Info

[right-wingin_It]

And also a high level funeral...And a Musharif book deal, which will be released soon..."2+2+2+2=8"

[snowsislander]

From near the end of this piece:

It seems that at this point nobody in the U.S. government knows how to deal with the situation in Pakistan. Some routine suggestions have been peddled: covert operations, pressure on the Musharraf government, and the like. Some in the State Department have even publicly defended the Wazir istan Accord, while at a Friday press conference with President Bush, Musharraf stated, "The deal is not at all with the Taliban. This deal is against the Taliban. The deal is with the tribal elders." To this, President Bush replied, "I believe him."