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The Global Housing Boom: In come the waves (a cautionary tale)
The Economist ^ | 06/16/2005

Posted on 09/21/2006 8:02:27 PM PDT by GodGunsGuts

The worldwide rise in house prices is the biggest bubble in history. Prepare for the economic pain when it pops

NEVER before have real house prices risen so fast, for so long, in so many countries. Property markets have been frothing from America, Britain and Australia to France, Spain and China. Rising property prices helped to prop up the world economy after the stockmarket bubble burst in 2000. What if the housing boom now turns to bust?

According to estimates by The Economist, the total value of residential property in developed economies rose by more than $30 trillion over the past five years, to over $70 trillion, an increase equivalent to 100% of those countries' combined GDPs. Not only does this dwarf any previous house-price boom, it is larger than the global stockmarket bubble in the late 1990s (an increase over five years of 80% of GDP) or America's stockmarket bubble in the late 1920s (55% of GDP). In other words, it looks like the biggest bubble in history.

(Excerpt) Read more at economist.com ...


TOPICS: Australia/New Zealand; Business/Economy; Japan; United Kingdom
KEYWORDS: 2005article; bahog; comedyhour; depression; despair; doom; dustbowl; grapesofwrath; housing; housingbubble; lieabouttheagenda; whataretheyselling
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To: GodGunsGuts

Stay out from under my bed. I shoot intruders.


41 posted on 09/21/2006 8:24:45 PM PDT by Petronski (Living His life abundantly.)
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To: montag813
That's the REAL story!

I was thinking that, but didn't post it to the thread.

42 posted on 09/21/2006 8:24:52 PM PDT by nopardons
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To: durasell
Oh pulllllllleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeze.....you weren't born and bred in the city either.

People who work on the street come from all over and as you SHOULD know, the Christmas/end of the year bonuses are what fuels the N.Y. housing market as well as luxury goods.

43 posted on 09/21/2006 8:28:17 PM PDT by nopardons
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To: durasell

LOL...........okay, I agree with all of that. :-)


44 posted on 09/21/2006 8:29:26 PM PDT by nopardons
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To: nopardons

I have never mentioned dates. I only point to severe global economic imbalances that will balance themselves in their own time. Gold is already telling us something is very wrong, and it will continue to do so until the imbalances reach an albeit painful equilibrium. It's not gloom and doom, it's just basic free market economics. We as consumers and as a country have gone on a credit binge, and soon it will be time to pay the piper. It's as simple as that. You can either acknoledge this fact and profit from it, or be the one of the millions left holding the bag. It's up to you.


45 posted on 09/21/2006 8:29:41 PM PDT by GodGunsGuts
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To: GodGunsGuts

Jun 16th 2005 ?


46 posted on 09/21/2006 8:30:30 PM PDT by byteback
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To: nopardons

I could hear the beautiful strains of "God Bless America" during that rant, couldn't you?


47 posted on 09/21/2006 8:31:31 PM PDT by Petronski (Living His life abundantly.)
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To: Petronski

Speak for yourself. Your the one who always
"stumbles" onto my posts and then froths at the mouth like a rabid dog.


48 posted on 09/21/2006 8:31:39 PM PDT by GodGunsGuts
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To: byteback

Some propaganda is timeless.


49 posted on 09/21/2006 8:31:52 PM PDT by Petronski (Living His life abundantly.)
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To: nopardons

I still have vivid memories of 92 etc. when real estate tanked.

Also, in the course of my oh so hectic social schedule I talk to a lot of people. Contracts are being re-negotiated downward, the stuff under $2 mil is staying on the market longer.

The one building that I recently heard of prices actually rising was Courtney Love's building when she moved out.


50 posted on 09/21/2006 8:32:56 PM PDT by durasell (!)
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To: GodGunsGuts

Keep posting 15-month-old articles, chief, and people might stop taking your investment advice....

...oh wait, nobody does.


LOL


51 posted on 09/21/2006 8:34:50 PM PDT by Petronski (Living His life abundantly.)
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To: GodGunsGuts
In Comes the Waves

Your article is more than a year old?!! That's one slow wave you're waiting for. You and the other doomers are going to get pretty lonely waiting for that wave to finally hit the shore. This should be a cautionary tale alright. Why is it gold bugs choose to purvey doom even when the story is 18 months old and never happened?

52 posted on 09/21/2006 8:35:18 PM PDT by Mase
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To: Mase; Petronski

The story was from The Economist. They've been on the real estate bubble for the last three years. They are usually reliable, but they got the timing wrong on this one.


53 posted on 09/21/2006 8:37:16 PM PDT by durasell (!)
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To: durasell
. . . but they got the timing wrong on this one.

You must be British, because you have a real flair for understatement.

54 posted on 09/21/2006 8:38:23 PM PDT by Petronski (Living His life abundantly.)
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To: Mase

It's happening right before your very eyes, and will continue to happen until the real estate bubble either fizzles or pops.


55 posted on 09/21/2006 8:38:47 PM PDT by GodGunsGuts
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To: GodGunsGuts
Sweetums, as I keep telling you, you have NO idea to whom you are posting and no, I am NOT going to tell you. But for YOU to assume that I, and the others on my side, know less about this that you do, is delusional.

Gold bars pay no dividends. You can't use them as money. Gold is now lower today, than its high in the 1980s, and will continue to drop.

The London real estate market has already had a correction and THAT was a SOFT LANDING!

The vast majority of people buy a house or an apartment to LIVE in; as they should. Thinking that one's home is an "investment" is NOT the way to look at it.

Real estate is cyclical; it always has been.

56 posted on 09/21/2006 8:38:57 PM PDT by nopardons
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To: GodGunsGuts
It's happening right before your very eyes...

The bald-face deception?

Agreed.

57 posted on 09/21/2006 8:39:25 PM PDT by Petronski (Living His life abundantly.)
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To: Petronski
Nope...sounded like a cat being skinned alive, to me. LOL
58 posted on 09/21/2006 8:40:25 PM PDT by nopardons
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To: byteback

Just as valid today as the day it was written, IMHO. It is a cautionary tale that uses examples of previous real estate bubbles popping (and the reasons for them) to shed light on our own bubble.


59 posted on 09/21/2006 8:40:40 PM PDT by GodGunsGuts
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To: Petronski

The Economist is the only weekly magazine I still read. All the others are filled with celebrity nonsense, though U.S. News is still "okay."

The thing with bubbles is that they are easier to detect than time. Nobody ever knows how big they'll grow or when they'll burst.


60 posted on 09/21/2006 8:41:26 PM PDT by durasell (!)
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