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The Global Housing Boom: In come the waves (a cautionary tale)
The Economist ^ | 06/16/2005

Posted on 09/21/2006 8:02:27 PM PDT by GodGunsGuts

The worldwide rise in house prices is the biggest bubble in history. Prepare for the economic pain when it pops

NEVER before have real house prices risen so fast, for so long, in so many countries. Property markets have been frothing from America, Britain and Australia to France, Spain and China. Rising property prices helped to prop up the world economy after the stockmarket bubble burst in 2000. What if the housing boom now turns to bust?

According to estimates by The Economist, the total value of residential property in developed economies rose by more than $30 trillion over the past five years, to over $70 trillion, an increase equivalent to 100% of those countries' combined GDPs. Not only does this dwarf any previous house-price boom, it is larger than the global stockmarket bubble in the late 1990s (an increase over five years of 80% of GDP) or America's stockmarket bubble in the late 1920s (55% of GDP). In other words, it looks like the biggest bubble in history.

(Excerpt) Read more at economist.com ...


TOPICS: Australia/New Zealand; Business/Economy; Japan; United Kingdom
KEYWORDS: 2005article; bahog; comedyhour; depression; despair; doom; dustbowl; grapesofwrath; housing; housingbubble; lieabouttheagenda; whataretheyselling
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1 posted on 09/21/2006 8:02:29 PM PDT by GodGunsGuts
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To: ex-Texan

ping


2 posted on 09/21/2006 8:02:51 PM PDT by GodGunsGuts
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To: GodGunsGuts

Which is why when this goes south, the hole it makes in the ground will be a big one.


3 posted on 09/21/2006 8:03:54 PM PDT by A CA Guy (God Bless America, God bless and keep safe our fighting men and women.)
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To: Toddsterpatriot; jennyjenny; Mase; Larry Lucido; Moonman62; nopardons

We're all doomed. Doomed!
DOOMED!

4 posted on 09/21/2006 8:04:49 PM PDT by Petronski (Living His life abundantly.)
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To: GodGunsGuts

Isn't it a F.R. rule that "ex-Texan" needs to post such items?


5 posted on 09/21/2006 8:04:55 PM PDT by montag813
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To: A CA Guy

Couldn't help but laugh. Your comment is sad, but true--GGG


6 posted on 09/21/2006 8:05:01 PM PDT by GodGunsGuts
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To: montag813

LOL! I run the evening shift :o)


7 posted on 09/21/2006 8:05:51 PM PDT by GodGunsGuts
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To: GodGunsGuts

A bit of a world wide recession at least IMO.


8 posted on 09/21/2006 8:06:17 PM PDT by A CA Guy (God Bless America, God bless and keep safe our fighting men and women.)
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To: GodGunsGuts
I wouldn't be surprised to see one more spike in housing prices before it's all done.

In case you missed it, mortgage rates hit a 7-month low today, and new loans and refis had their biggest spike in 5 months. Activity in NYC has really picked up in September (I know, NYC is "different", but still)

9 posted on 09/21/2006 8:06:48 PM PDT by montag813
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To: GodGunsGuts

Gloom and Doom is Fun


10 posted on 09/21/2006 8:07:51 PM PDT by woofie
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To: montag813

Activity in NYC is a lot of European money and midwestern/southern money. These are the guys who traditionally get burned...


11 posted on 09/21/2006 8:08:26 PM PDT by durasell (!)
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To: montag813

I saw that. There will come a point where it won't matter how much they lower rates. When Japan's real estate market tanked, they were offering loans at zero percent and there were still no takers.


12 posted on 09/21/2006 8:09:26 PM PDT by GodGunsGuts
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To: woofie

Or just plain common sense.


13 posted on 09/21/2006 8:10:42 PM PDT by GodGunsGuts
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To: Petronski
Did you go to the site this article was taken from? If you did, did you look at the chart? That chart is..........um....inaccurate at best.
14 posted on 09/21/2006 8:11:28 PM PDT by nopardons
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To: woofie

Bubbles are fascinating. They are the nexus where economics meet human nature.


15 posted on 09/21/2006 8:11:47 PM PDT by durasell (!)
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To: GodGunsGuts; Petronski

Why didn't you say this article is from June 16, 2005?


16 posted on 09/21/2006 8:11:59 PM PDT by Moonman62 (The issue of whether cheap labor makes America great should have been settled by the Civil War.)
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To: Petronski

BTW, gold might be rebounding right here and now. It could take another dip, but the odds that it will start its next leg up increase with each passing day (especially this time of year :o)

PS Picked up 7 more bars at $578.

http://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif


17 posted on 09/21/2006 8:13:34 PM PDT by GodGunsGuts
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To: GodGunsGuts
There will come a point where it won't matter how much they lower rates. When Japan's real estate market tanked, they were offering loans at zero percent and there were still no takers.

Japan had a problem where banks couldn't offer any loans because they never wrote off bad loans.

18 posted on 09/21/2006 8:13:49 PM PDT by Moonman62 (The issue of whether cheap labor makes America great should have been settled by the Civil War.)
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To: durasell

Not really. Did you see today's N.Y. Post REAL ESTATE section?


19 posted on 09/21/2006 8:13:59 PM PDT by nopardons
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To: nopardons

I only read Page Six in the Post. What did the RE section say? (I'm kidding, I just didn't see the post today)


20 posted on 09/21/2006 8:15:09 PM PDT by durasell (!)
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