Posted on 09/19/2006 7:57:19 AM PDT by drellberg
By most accounts, the House and Senate races are narrowing. But I don't see this. Either the polls are old (before 8/31) or they show Dems' leads as wide as ever.
Thus, for example:
MD (9/13): Cardin (D) +7 MN (8/27): Klobucher (D) +7 MO (9/13): McCaskill (D) +2 --- Republ'ns lose seat? NJ (9/10): Kean (R) +4 -- Dems lose seat? OH (9/14): Brown (D) +6 -- Republ'ns lose seat? PA (8/21): Casey (D) +8 -- Republ'ns lose seat? MD (9/13): Whitehouse (D) +8 -- Republ'ns lose seat? TN (9/11): Ford (D) up in one; down in the other -- Republicans lose seat?
Now, I think Republicans will hold PA and TN, and I'm cautiously optimistic about MO. I don't think the Dems will lose NJ -- it's too corrupt.
Still, my larger question is this: Where is the data supporting the assertion that the momentum is shifting towarde Republicans? It isn't in these polls.
Where is the data supporting any assertion of conservatism among GOP senators?
Have you ever visited the Real Clear Politics website and looked at the Senatorial polls listed. Most of the ones listed for competitive races are of likely voters.
It was pretty well reported in the newspapers i think. Talent is a seasoned campaigner, he was able to defeat an incumbent Carnahan plus the sympathy factor. Mccaskill is a lightweight and is not even considered a moderate by many missouri voters, Talent would win this election.
What state do you live in? I doubt its Missouri. Sympathy factor for Carnahan only applied when her dead husband ran against Ashcroft. By time Talent barely won the seat she was just another politician.
McCaskill is not a light weight. She has won statewide office two or three times. She knocked off the incumbent Governor in his primary two years ago and came awfully close to beating the Republican in the Nov election, couple points. She has high name recognition and she beats Talent in the St. Louis and Kansas City metro areas including the suburban area where Talents congressional seat used to be. Talent will win by it will be tight. Point or two difference.
Too many libs from CA are retiring there and shifting the state toward purple. The same thing happened in Iowa when Minnesotans began to retire there (taxes are cheaper) and shifted the state enough lib to give it to Gore in '00.
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