Posted on 09/19/2006 7:57:19 AM PDT by drellberg
By most accounts, the House and Senate races are narrowing. But I don't see this. Either the polls are old (before 8/31) or they show Dems' leads as wide as ever.
Thus, for example:
MD (9/13): Cardin (D) +7 MN (8/27): Klobucher (D) +7 MO (9/13): McCaskill (D) +2 --- Republ'ns lose seat? NJ (9/10): Kean (R) +4 -- Dems lose seat? OH (9/14): Brown (D) +6 -- Republ'ns lose seat? PA (8/21): Casey (D) +8 -- Republ'ns lose seat? MD (9/13): Whitehouse (D) +8 -- Republ'ns lose seat? TN (9/11): Ford (D) up in one; down in the other -- Republicans lose seat?
Now, I think Republicans will hold PA and TN, and I'm cautiously optimistic about MO. I don't think the Dems will lose NJ -- it's too corrupt.
Still, my larger question is this: Where is the data supporting the assertion that the momentum is shifting towarde Republicans? It isn't in these polls.
How are they suppse to sell election night coverage ad's without trying to make a horserace out of it?
This is all media hype.
I looked at Real Clear Politics last week and they're using polling still from the Spring and early Summer in some cases. I'd go with Zogby and Rasmussen for current trends. And those trends look good for the GOP. Of course McCain's latest treachery won't be factored in for a few days.
what's up Montana???
That is because the Dems will capture the House and most likely the Senate. If they don't capture the Senate it will be by only 1 or 2 seats they miss it by.
An Ipsos-Reid poll out today is weighted almost 10% higher for the Dems. Does that tell you anything? They simply are NOT using accurate sampling methods, and we saw earlier this month a pollster pleaded guilty to precisely this---"adjusting" samples due to time pressures.
GOP gains one seat in the senate, net.
I soooo hope you are right, and I agree that myriad forces in play will push the outcome in Republicans' direction. I'm less optimistic than you about a net gain, but like others here I believe losses in both House and Senate will be less than forecast.
But ... as this posting demonstrates, my premonitions aren't data-driven, and of course I'm not looking at this objectively. I worry that my premonitions are emotional rather than rational.
If you look at Rasmussen (and go to his site and look at the brutal numbers), the trends in the Senate races are VERY bad. The data is all recent (last week) and shows Talent down, Burns down, Chafee down, DeWine down, etc. The only decent numbers are coming from New Jersey.
The only thing to hope for is that these numbers might be lagging indicators for the better national trend. But the realistic assessment is that we'll lose 4 seats.
So just watch. These polls just are not capturing what is really going on.
Democrats win exit polls, Republicans win elections.
From your lips to God's ear, Larry.
The 'Pubs are in trouble for many reasons, but I have the feeling every headline about militant Islam reminds people that having the Dems in control of congress would not be helpful.
People don't like Bush & Company very much, but they know better than to trust the Dems...
It just feels like another 2000, where we were on the edge, and somehow managed to lose all 5 close elections.
I think we are a lot smarter about getting our voter turnout now, but on the other hand the democrats are getting better at it as well, and they have the media really pushing for them (the media has made the virginia race into an actual race, with their trumped-up macaca charges -- and look for a "Allen is ashamed of his jewish heritage" barrage this week).
Not this year and NJ and MD will be going red
I see a Senate turnover as more likely than the House.
So do you have an official list of predictions?
Santorum can win if voter fraud in Philly and the "Burgh are kept to a minimum.
State polls lag national polls by a few weeks. We should see the Senate races tightening dramatically by the end of September and early October just in time for the election.
Santorum, Talent, DeWine all hold. EITHER Burns or Chafee holds.
GOP gains NJ and either MD or MN. (now leaning toward MD). That's +1.
1) Ras in NOT using the same demographics as he did in 2004. Don't argue the point, he admitted so in several interviews.
2) Even gallup has Bush up by 7 points.
LLS
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