How are they suppse to sell election night coverage ad's without trying to make a horserace out of it?
This is all media hype.
I looked at Real Clear Politics last week and they're using polling still from the Spring and early Summer in some cases. I'd go with Zogby and Rasmussen for current trends. And those trends look good for the GOP. Of course McCain's latest treachery won't be factored in for a few days.
what's up Montana???
That is because the Dems will capture the House and most likely the Senate. If they don't capture the Senate it will be by only 1 or 2 seats they miss it by.
An Ipsos-Reid poll out today is weighted almost 10% higher for the Dems. Does that tell you anything? They simply are NOT using accurate sampling methods, and we saw earlier this month a pollster pleaded guilty to precisely this---"adjusting" samples due to time pressures.
GOP gains one seat in the senate, net.
Democrats win exit polls, Republicans win elections.
The 'Pubs are in trouble for many reasons, but I have the feeling every headline about militant Islam reminds people that having the Dems in control of congress would not be helpful.
People don't like Bush & Company very much, but they know better than to trust the Dems...
Santorum can win if voter fraud in Philly and the "Burgh are kept to a minimum.
1) Ras in NOT using the same demographics as he did in 2004. Don't argue the point, he admitted so in several interviews.
2) Even gallup has Bush up by 7 points.
LLS
Democrats have NO chance in Tennessee.
Harold Ford Jr. is a member of the most crooked political machine in Tennessee history. His father, aunt, and uncle were all deposed by their own individual scandals. He's touring the state trying to convince everyone that he's not a liberal, and that he's not as shady as his discredited relatives. It won't fly !
It's amazing to me that Ford Jr. is even on the radar screen.
Its in the House races that they have seen improvement. That is where they ask the generic question of who are you more likely to vote for the House, a Rep or Dem. Also they are looking at the Presidential performance ratings with Bush showing improvement. This is important because the Dems have been attempting to natinalize the elections and make the various house races a referendum on Bush.
Some of the Senate races like the Talent race you mentioned are within the statistical margin of error. In three of four recent polls, however, McCaskill has been leading Talent. This is probably do to her running about three times as much advertising in the past week or two as Talent. Her ads are more hard hitting than Talent's. JIm's ads seem to be targeted more towards Suburban Republican women or independents in that they all have a let's play nice and all sing kumbaya feel to them. I'm working hard for Missouri. I'm working with Senator Feinstein on this and Senator Dodd on that. Not a lot to drive conservatives to the polls. More about Methamphetamines and Ethanol.
McCaskill is hitting hard on special tax breaks that Talent has voted for the oil companies and on Talent's opposition to embryonic stem cell research which is supported by a 2:1 margin here in Missouri.
Where is the data supporting any assertion of conservatism among GOP senators?