Posted on 09/03/2006 8:27:24 AM PDT by FairOpinion
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democrats enter the fall campaign with a clear edge in the high-stakes fight for control of the U.S. Congress, riding a wave of momentum that has them positioned to retake the U.S. House of Representatives and make significant gains in the Senate.
President George W. Bush's low approval ratings and public dissatisfaction with the Iraq war, gas prices and the country's direction threaten Republican leadership in Congress and put Democrats within reach of victory on November 7, analysts said.
"I don't think the question any longer is can Democrats win control of Congress, it's can Republicans do anything to stop it?" said Amy Walter, House analyst for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report newsletter. "All the factors and issues are pushing so strongly against Republicans."
All 435 House seats, 34 of 100 Senate seats and 36 governorships are at stake in November's election, with Democrats needing to pick up 15 House seats and six Senate seats to reclaim majorities.
Strategists in both parties say the glum public mood has created a strong desire for change and given Democrats a big advantage at the traditional opening of the campaign season on Monday's Labor Day holiday.
"It's too late to fix the national mood -- it's not going to be fixed," said Republican pollster Frank Luntz. "The major issues are not playing well for Republicans this year, and Republicans are not playing well with America this year."
History is also with Democrats -- the party holding the White House traditionally loses seats in a president's sixth year. The modern exception was 1998, when public unhappiness over the Republican-led impeachment of President Bill Clinton helped Democrats gain five House seats.
"This looks like a classic sixth-year election," said University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato, who called the president's low approval ratings, hovering at about 40 percent, "the single best indicator for any mid-term election."
A Democratic majority in even one chamber of Congress would slam the brakes on what is left of Bush's second-term legislative agenda and hasten his descent into lame-duck status in the final two years of his presidency.
It also would give Democrats an opportunity to hold hearings and investigate many of the administration's more controversial foreign, military and energy policy decisions.
Candidates around the country will spend Monday's Labor Day holiday marching in parades, shaking hands at fairs and laying the groundwork for the final two-month push to the November 7 election.
KEY BATTLEGROUNDS
About 40 House districts and a dozen Senate seats will be the key battlegrounds, and they will be flooded in the next two months with campaign cash and appearances by party big shots.
Democrats are in the strongest position in the House, analysts said, where nearly every endangered incumbent is Republican. Independent analyst Stuart Rothenberg projects a Democratic gain of 15-20 seats, while the Cook Report lists 17 House seats as toss-ups -- all Republican.
But Republican House campaign spokesman Carl Forti shrugged off predictions of a takeover.
"We're nowhere near as bad off as the experts would have you believe," he said, adding Bush's low ratings and public dissatisfaction with the Republican-led Congress would not determine House races.
In the Senate, Democrats are expected to pick up seats. But to win control they will need to bump off at least five Republican incumbents -- difficult but not impossible even under favorable conditions.
In recent polls, Democratic challengers led Republican incumbents Rick Santorum in Pennsylvania, Conrad Burns in Montana and Mike DeWine in Ohio. Jim Talent in Missouri, Lincoln Chafee in Rhode Island and George Allen in Virginia also face re-election struggles.
The open Tennessee seat of retiring Republican Senate Leader Bill Frist is also on the endangered list for Republicans.
Democratic incumbents Maria Cantwell in Washington, Debbie Stabenow in Michigan and Bob Menendez in New Jersey face potentially tough races, and Democrats must defend open seats in Minnesota and Maryland.
Many voters do not start paying attention until late in the campaign and many candidates only start spending heavily in September, giving the races plenty of chances to shift before the election.
Unexpected events, like the capture of al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden or a major terrorist strike, could quickly shift the political landscape.
"I'm a political realist. Can we win? Yes, but this is 10 weeks out and a lot can happen in 10 weeks," said House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi of California.
"I promise you this. I will vote Republican and will personally deliver to the polls at least a couple hundred Republican votes in my district."
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Excellent!
Now, if all Republicans would follow your example, no way will the Dems win. It's all going to depend on turnout.
And I said there were any when...? And I said I supported any such increase in immigration when...?
And you will stop running away from the implications of your position when...?
...crickets...
Dude, you hung yourself, just admit it and move on. Stop prolonging your embarassment...unless you HAVE no embarassment for calling Reagan a traitor.
You are your own parody.
Thanks for the chuckle.
Laser, that whole race was about the popularity of Mark Warner, plain and simple. GOTV helped elect Republicans to the LT. GOV office and Attorney General on the down ticket and maintain a GOP House and State Senate. Warner had 80% approvals and got Kaine elected.
Right, my error. Thanks for making it right.
"Why would Americans vote for those who hate America?"
Because treason is patriotic, your grandmother will not have her social security check stolen, your children will not be drafted and the evil Karl Rove isn't going to flood your hometown with a hurricane.
And also Evan Thomas from Newsweek( and his grandfather was a big socialist in the 30's) stated that the liberal MSM gives any democrat candidate a 10 to 15% lead with their journalistic bias.
You seem to be contradicting yourself.
No Dems, are you also a "Seminar" Democrat? Did you also predict a President Kerry on Labor day 2004. Please Buck up and do not be a defeatist.
Eagle my man, my pleasure. It seems the Liberal Media disinformation has arrived to try and suppress GOP voters again, like 2004. They are planting seminar Democrats on this site and other GOP blogs. Hang in there and rememember buffoons like Cook, Sabato and Novak where preaching this junk in past elections also. I think Goebbels is their new idol. I always remember Larry Sabato speaking at a Business Dinner in July 2004 saying Bush would need a miracle like Truman to win.
DREAM ON, FOOLS. KEEP WRITTING YOUR DREAMS AS PROFECY.
Thank you. Labor Day is over and now I go to work delivering those votes. There are any number of issues to show the Dims for what they are. My Representative is against amnesty for the illegals. Lots of gun owners here and the Dims are gun grabbers. They try to scare the elderly on the Social Security issue. Not going to let them get away with that one. Then there is the national security issue, etc, etc. One thing that is going to hurt the Dims in this county is they are going to court trying to get two of our Republican candidates taken off the ballot. Election board has already ruled they are eligible to run. Hoping for a favorable ruling by the judge. If and when that happens I will be out telling the voters that the Dims do not want them to have a choice. I will have the Dims out scratching their heads and chasing their tails because I will not unload all the issues at once. That way they have to chase after me every day trying to disprove what I tell the voters. Just love coming at them from several angles and watching them try to put out the fires.
I hope I'm wrong; I really do.
The media doesn't bother me because they have been doing this since 2000, even before. To highlight just how phony is the media one need look no further back then the 2000 election. Gore running on the merits of an Administration that allegedly had a 65% approval rating, boated of an economy projecting surpluses into the future as far as one cared to look, created untold millions of jobs, claimed responsibility for the surging stock markets and even the invention of the Internet.
Given all that, Gore should have ran away with the election. Of course we all know what happened.
And if the Bush DUI did not get revealed the Sunday before Election day 2000, Bush would have won handidly.
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