Posted on 09/03/2006 8:27:24 AM PDT by FairOpinion
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democrats enter the fall campaign with a clear edge in the high-stakes fight for control of the U.S. Congress, riding a wave of momentum that has them positioned to retake the U.S. House of Representatives and make significant gains in the Senate.
President George W. Bush's low approval ratings and public dissatisfaction with the Iraq war, gas prices and the country's direction threaten Republican leadership in Congress and put Democrats within reach of victory on November 7, analysts said.
"I don't think the question any longer is can Democrats win control of Congress, it's can Republicans do anything to stop it?" said Amy Walter, House analyst for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report newsletter. "All the factors and issues are pushing so strongly against Republicans."
All 435 House seats, 34 of 100 Senate seats and 36 governorships are at stake in November's election, with Democrats needing to pick up 15 House seats and six Senate seats to reclaim majorities.
Strategists in both parties say the glum public mood has created a strong desire for change and given Democrats a big advantage at the traditional opening of the campaign season on Monday's Labor Day holiday.
"It's too late to fix the national mood -- it's not going to be fixed," said Republican pollster Frank Luntz. "The major issues are not playing well for Republicans this year, and Republicans are not playing well with America this year."
History is also with Democrats -- the party holding the White House traditionally loses seats in a president's sixth year. The modern exception was 1998, when public unhappiness over the Republican-led impeachment of President Bill Clinton helped Democrats gain five House seats.
"This looks like a classic sixth-year election," said University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato, who called the president's low approval ratings, hovering at about 40 percent, "the single best indicator for any mid-term election."
A Democratic majority in even one chamber of Congress would slam the brakes on what is left of Bush's second-term legislative agenda and hasten his descent into lame-duck status in the final two years of his presidency.
It also would give Democrats an opportunity to hold hearings and investigate many of the administration's more controversial foreign, military and energy policy decisions.
Candidates around the country will spend Monday's Labor Day holiday marching in parades, shaking hands at fairs and laying the groundwork for the final two-month push to the November 7 election.
KEY BATTLEGROUNDS
About 40 House districts and a dozen Senate seats will be the key battlegrounds, and they will be flooded in the next two months with campaign cash and appearances by party big shots.
Democrats are in the strongest position in the House, analysts said, where nearly every endangered incumbent is Republican. Independent analyst Stuart Rothenberg projects a Democratic gain of 15-20 seats, while the Cook Report lists 17 House seats as toss-ups -- all Republican.
But Republican House campaign spokesman Carl Forti shrugged off predictions of a takeover.
"We're nowhere near as bad off as the experts would have you believe," he said, adding Bush's low ratings and public dissatisfaction with the Republican-led Congress would not determine House races.
In the Senate, Democrats are expected to pick up seats. But to win control they will need to bump off at least five Republican incumbents -- difficult but not impossible even under favorable conditions.
In recent polls, Democratic challengers led Republican incumbents Rick Santorum in Pennsylvania, Conrad Burns in Montana and Mike DeWine in Ohio. Jim Talent in Missouri, Lincoln Chafee in Rhode Island and George Allen in Virginia also face re-election struggles.
The open Tennessee seat of retiring Republican Senate Leader Bill Frist is also on the endangered list for Republicans.
Democratic incumbents Maria Cantwell in Washington, Debbie Stabenow in Michigan and Bob Menendez in New Jersey face potentially tough races, and Democrats must defend open seats in Minnesota and Maryland.
Many voters do not start paying attention until late in the campaign and many candidates only start spending heavily in September, giving the races plenty of chances to shift before the election.
Unexpected events, like the capture of al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden or a major terrorist strike, could quickly shift the political landscape.
"I'm a political realist. Can we win? Yes, but this is 10 weeks out and a lot can happen in 10 weeks," said House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi of California.
20,000? It was more like 150,000 in Ohio.
And also Evan Thomas from Newsweek( and his grandfather was a big socialist in the 30's) stated that the liberal MSM gives any democrat candidate a 10 to 15% lead with their journalistic bias.
IF NOMINEES PRESS HARD ON THE GAY MARRIAGE AMMENDMENTS, WE WILL TAKE '06. THERE ARE MANY SEATS UP FOR GRABS IN STATES THAT WILL DECIDE ON THIS ISSUE IN NOVEMBER
Gald to hear ait! Bob Jt. is not the man his father was. He will gave in to the pro aborts.
Also read this relevant, excellent article:
Is Suicide the Conservative Alternative?(Interesting Read)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1694947/posts
"Most of the pessimists — and that includes just about every political guru around — insist that Republicans will sit it out, thus handing control of the House at the very least, and maybe even the Senate, to the Democrats. I'll accept that view only if Republican voters prove to be either politically suicidal of just plain stupid.
The concept that it's a good idea to wreak vengeance on the Republican Party by standing aside and allowing Democrats, who will proceed to wreak havoc on the nation, to take over Capitol Hill, is nothing less than a death wish that borders on insanity."
Isn't this the same Reuters that doctored photos from Lebanon? Do they still have any credibility?
The most ridiculous statement is that the dems have MOMENTUM. No, the republicans may suck, but people definitely are NOT flocking to the dems.
That would make an excellent campaign slogan.
This is an old political trick used by the Dems since FDR. Use a sympathic media to create a self-fulfilling prophesy. I worked well for them when libs dominated the media, their monopoly on the flow of information has been broken , so we don't have to buy into their bs.
Nice avoidance of the hard fact YOU brought up by accusing ME of misdirection.
You said it was treasonous to make an amnesty law. Reagan signed an amnesty bill into law. Thus, Reagan is treasonous in your view.
You hung yoursefl, Rog, and no amount of spin will change that. Deal with it.
It's kind of a cop out, but I don't anticipate a major change in either branch, for either party. But it's close enough that one or two key events could decide a lot of elections.
How's that for a non-answer? I should run for office!
Okay then how about this: Who do you think has the more effective GOTV effort this time around? I remember that was supposed to be Kilgore's magic bullet against Kaine in the VA Gov race. Didn't exactly turn out that way.
Who knows?
Because unlike Freepers and other interested ConservPubs, the majority of voters still gets its bias from the MSM and is easily brainwashed by a wave of anti-Pub, anti-war storms that continually lie, and say the GOP is out of touch blah, blah. They use the Goebbels bit and by heavens with many elections it works. We shall have to see if the GOP side will come out strong in many targeted races and if the money is so targeted that the truth is told about handing over the reigns of national security to a do nothing Dem vision, and a socialist pacifist leftist agenda which seems more like revenge than it does policy. I would not put it past the voters to punish the GOP by thinking the Dems are actually patrios with another vision. They could not be more wrong but that is what free will does at election time!!!!!
Only if someone puts a lid on the huge voter fraud there.
...crickets...
In total agreement with you.
I would never consider voting for a Dim in this election. Not even if he/she were related to me.
I promise you this. I will vote Republican and will personally deliver to the polls at least a couple hundred Republican votes in my district.
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