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Tropical Storm Ernesto 9-1-2006
NWS/NHC ^ | 31 August 2006 | NHC

Posted on 08/31/2006 8:05:24 PM PDT by NautiNurse

Tropical Storm Ernesto is nearing landfall at Cape Fear NC, with 70 mph winds, pressure 988 mb, and potential rainfall of 5-15 inches in some areas. Flash floods are a real and significant threat. Flash floods were being reported in some coastal cities by midafternoon.

Virginia's governor declared a state of emergency and hundreds of National Guardsmen were activated there and in the Carolinas. State ferry service from Ocracoke to Cedar Island on the mainland was canceled as a precaution. Campgrounds in the area were closed.

Public Advisories Updated every three hours.

Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours

North Carolina Watches, Warnings & Special Weather Statements

Three Day Tracking Map

Ernesto Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 3 & 5 day forecast tracks

Buoy Data Southeast U.S.

Hurricane Model Tracks

Storm Surge graphic

Radar

Wilmington NC
Morehead City
RDU NC
Wakefield VA

Satellite Images

Visible Satellite Still Image

IR Image

WV Image

Additional Resources:

Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:

Tropical Storm Ernesto
Hurricane Ernesto
TS/Hurricane/TS Ernesto
TS/Hurricane/TS/TD Ernesto
Tropical Storm Ernesto leaves Florida and heads for the Carolinas


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; US: North Carolina; US: Virginia
KEYWORDS: ernesto; hurricane; tropical; weather
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Please use common sense when posting graphics--keeping in mind there are FReepers who use dial-up access to the internet, and many have java limitations (e.g. satellite loops). In other words--links are better than posting the graphics.

Howlin's warning to those using generators after the storm (IF YOU READ ANYTHING ON THIS POST, READ THIS)

For all of you out there who use generators and ANY kind of gas, PLEASE USE A CO DETECTOR -- and, yes, even if you use it outside. I lost my only child to carbon monoixde poisoning 5 and a half years ago! Do NOT let it happen to you or anybody you love!

1 posted on 08/31/2006 8:05:25 PM PDT by NautiNurse
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To: abb; abbi_normal_2; aberaussie; alancarp; Alas Babylon!; Alia; Alice in Wonderland; Amelia; asp1; ..
New thread


On/Off Hurricane Ping list, mash ---> .

2 posted on 08/31/2006 8:06:09 PM PDT by NautiNurse
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To: NautiNurse

in!


3 posted on 08/31/2006 8:06:49 PM PDT by RDTF ("We love death. The US loves life. That is the big difference between us two.” Osama Bin laden)
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To: RDTF

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 31, 2006


reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft and data
from the Wilmington North Carolina WSR-88D indicate that Ernesto
has come up just short in its bid to become a hurricane. The radar
showed winds near 75 kt about 3000 ft above the surface a few hours
ago...but those winds have since diminished. The hurricane hunter
just reported a minimum central pressure of 988 mb about 10 N mi
from the North Carolina coast...with 63 kt winds
70 N mi northeast of the center. Some central convection remains
over water...and until this is inland there is a chance that
Ernesto could briefly reach hurricane strength in the next few
hours. Overall...Ernesto should weaken over land...then become
extratropical in about 36 hr. The cyclone should be absorbed by
the baroclinic system over the eastern United States in 48-72 hr.

The initial motion is 020/16. Ernesto should turn northward during
the next 24 hr and then north-northwestward as it rotates around
the deep-layer baroclinic system over the eastern United States.
All model track guidance agrees with this...and the new forecast
track is on the eastern edge of the model guidance. It is shifted
a little to the east of the previous track based mainly on the
initial position.

The combination of Ernesto and a strong high pressure area to the
northeast is expected to produce gale force winds from the Delmarva
Peninsula northward. However...these winds are not directly
associated with the circulation of the tropical cyclone. See
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.


Forecast positions and Max winds


initial 01/0300z 33.9n 78.2w 60 kt
12hr VT 01/1200z 35.7n 77.3w 45 kt...inland
24hr VT 02/0000z 37.6n 77.2w 30 kt...inland
36hr VT 02/1200z 39.4n 77.5w 25 kt...extratropical
48hr VT 03/0000z 41.7n 78.4w 25 kt...extratropical
72hr VT 04/0000z...absorbed by extratropical system


$$
forecaster Beven


4 posted on 08/31/2006 8:08:41 PM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: NautiNurse

This storm has still not come ashore!

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=LTX&type=N0R&showstorms=10&lat=34.24169922&lon=-77.94360352&label=Wilmington,%20NC&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999


5 posted on 08/31/2006 8:09:55 PM PDT by Howlin
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To: nwctwx; NautiNurse; Howlin
North Carolina Informational Links (always rely primarily on your local media for most current warning information):

Landfall expected around Cape Fear. A tornado watch remains in effect north and east of landfall. Flood watches extend all the way into Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Flood warnings in North Carolina are too numerous to note them all.

NOAA - All Warnings

North Carolina State Information from IWIN

College of DuPage River Flood and Flash Flood Warnings

College of DuPage Meteorology Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings

NWS Wilmington Radar with warnings overlaid:

Newport/Morehead Radar with warnings overlaid

Raliegh/Durham Radar with warnings overlaid

Wakefield, VA Radar with warnings overlaid

Howlin's warning to those using generators after the storm (IF YOU READ ANYTHING ON THIS POST, READ THIS)

For all of you out there who use generators and ANY kind of gas, PLEASE USE A CO DETECTOR -- and, yes, even if you use it outside. I lost my only child to carbon monoixde poisoning 5 and a half years ago!
Do NOT let it happen to you or anybody you love!

Weather Channel national map of watches/warnings:

Specific timely warnings:

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NEW HANOVER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WRIGHTSBORO...WINDEMERE...
WILMINGTON...SMITH CREEK...SILVER LAKE...SEAGATE...OGDEN...MYRTLE
GROVE...MASONBORO...CAROLINA BEACH

* UNTIL 200 AM EDT

--------------------

Wilmington: * AT 1024 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED FLASH FLOODING FROM TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS
IMMINENT. RAINFALL RATES SHOULD INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR MORE PER HOUR
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY...AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO REDBUG... EVERGREEN...HALLSBORO...FREEMAN...DELCO...LAKE WACCAMAW...FAIR BLUFF AND CHADBOURN

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY NEAR FREEMAN AND LAKE WACCAMAW.

6 posted on 08/31/2006 8:10:48 PM PDT by dirtboy (This tagline has been photoshopped)
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To: Howlin
Stay safe. These storms are not to be trifled with.

L

7 posted on 08/31/2006 8:11:02 PM PDT by Lurker (If you want peace, prepare for war.)
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To: Howlin

It looks like the worst Ernesto can produce is about to roll into Wilmington.


8 posted on 08/31/2006 8:11:51 PM PDT by dirtboy (This tagline has been photoshopped)
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To: tapatio

If you are still on-line, please give us an update - you are FR's poster on the ground in Wilmington.


9 posted on 08/31/2006 8:13:07 PM PDT by dirtboy (This tagline has been photoshopped)
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To: Howlin

Tornado warning just popped up around Morehead City - take shelter and tune in to local media for more info.


10 posted on 08/31/2006 8:14:14 PM PDT by dirtboy (This tagline has been photoshopped)
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To: Lurker

Thanks.


11 posted on 08/31/2006 8:14:17 PM PDT by Howlin
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To: NautiNurse; Howlin

Adding howlin's warning to the openning is a GREAT idea.......


12 posted on 08/31/2006 8:14:52 PM PDT by Gabz (Taxaholism, the disease you elect to have (TY xcamel))
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To: dirtboy

That looks like the last of it, too.


13 posted on 08/31/2006 8:14:52 PM PDT by Howlin
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To: dirtboy

Emerald Isle is getting killed.


14 posted on 08/31/2006 8:16:43 PM PDT by Howlin
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To: Howlin
They just put up a tornado warning for Morehead City - and those will probably come and go all night north and east of landfall.

Flood warnings are currently clustered around Wilmington, but should spread north and east as well overnight. If you are east of a line from Rocky Mount to Myrtle Beach and live in a flood prone area, make sure you don't go to sleep without being aware of the flood hazards in your area.

15 posted on 08/31/2006 8:17:11 PM PDT by dirtboy (This tagline has been photoshopped)
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To: dirtboy

The rain has lightened up quite a bit right now.The wind is still gusty,but not like it was last hour.


16 posted on 08/31/2006 8:17:44 PM PDT by tapatio
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To: tapatio

It looks like you're about to get whacked one more time.


17 posted on 08/31/2006 8:18:35 PM PDT by Howlin
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To: dirtboy
Landfall looks to be very near Southport, NC

Radar

KSUT is reporting lighter winds now and a pressure of 990mb.
18 posted on 08/31/2006 8:19:25 PM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: Howlin

There is a really nasty feeder band causing the tornado warning around Morehead City. That band will probably continue to sweep up to the NE towards Hattaras. Anyone on the outer banks should be tuned in to local media for any weather alerts.


19 posted on 08/31/2006 8:19:30 PM PDT by dirtboy (This tagline has been photoshopped)
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To: nwctwx

I concur. The worst short-term weather will work its way up the Outer Banks over the next few hours in the various feeder bands.


20 posted on 08/31/2006 8:20:50 PM PDT by dirtboy (This tagline has been photoshopped)
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