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Posted on 08/31/2006 8:05:24 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Tropical Storm Ernesto is nearing landfall at Cape Fear NC, with 70 mph winds, pressure 988 mb, and potential rainfall of 5-15 inches in some areas. Flash floods are a real and significant threat. Flash floods were being reported in some coastal cities by midafternoon.
Virginia's governor declared a state of emergency and hundreds of National Guardsmen were activated there and in the Carolinas. State ferry service from Ocracoke to Cedar Island on the mainland was canceled as a precaution. Campgrounds in the area were closed.
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North Carolina Watches, Warnings & Special Weather Statements
Ernesto Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 3 & 5 day forecast tracks
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Wilmington NC
Morehead City
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Wakefield VA
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Additional Resources:
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Hurricane City
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Previous Threads:
Tropical Storm Ernesto
Hurricane Ernesto
TS/Hurricane/TS Ernesto
TS/Hurricane/TS/TD Ernesto
Tropical Storm Ernesto leaves Florida and heads for the Carolinas
Howlin's warning to those using generators after the storm (IF YOU READ ANYTHING ON THIS POST, READ THIS)
For all of you out there who use generators and ANY kind of gas, PLEASE USE A CO DETECTOR -- and, yes, even if you use it outside. I lost my only child to carbon monoixde poisoning 5 and a half years ago! Do NOT let it happen to you or anybody you love!
On/Off Hurricane Ping list, mash ---> .
in!
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 31, 2006
reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft and data
from the Wilmington North Carolina WSR-88D indicate that Ernesto
has come up just short in its bid to become a hurricane. The radar
showed winds near 75 kt about 3000 ft above the surface a few hours
ago...but those winds have since diminished. The hurricane hunter
just reported a minimum central pressure of 988 mb about 10 N mi
from the North Carolina coast...with 63 kt winds
70 N mi northeast of the center. Some central convection remains
over water...and until this is inland there is a chance that
Ernesto could briefly reach hurricane strength in the next few
hours. Overall...Ernesto should weaken over land...then become
extratropical in about 36 hr. The cyclone should be absorbed by
the baroclinic system over the eastern United States in 48-72 hr.
The initial motion is 020/16. Ernesto should turn northward during
the next 24 hr and then north-northwestward as it rotates around
the deep-layer baroclinic system over the eastern United States.
All model track guidance agrees with this...and the new forecast
track is on the eastern edge of the model guidance. It is shifted
a little to the east of the previous track based mainly on the
initial position.
The combination of Ernesto and a strong high pressure area to the
northeast is expected to produce gale force winds from the Delmarva
Peninsula northward. However...these winds are not directly
associated with the circulation of the tropical cyclone. See
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 01/0300z 33.9n 78.2w 60 kt
12hr VT 01/1200z 35.7n 77.3w 45 kt...inland
24hr VT 02/0000z 37.6n 77.2w 30 kt...inland
36hr VT 02/1200z 39.4n 77.5w 25 kt...extratropical
48hr VT 03/0000z 41.7n 78.4w 25 kt...extratropical
72hr VT 04/0000z...absorbed by extratropical system
$$
forecaster Beven
Landfall expected around Cape Fear. A tornado watch remains in effect north and east of landfall. Flood watches extend all the way into Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Flood warnings in North Carolina are too numerous to note them all.
North Carolina State Information from IWIN
College of DuPage River Flood and Flash Flood Warnings
College of DuPage Meteorology Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
NWS Wilmington Radar with warnings overlaid:
Newport/Morehead Radar with warnings overlaid
Raliegh/Durham Radar with warnings overlaid
Wakefield, VA Radar with warnings overlaid
Howlin's warning to those using generators after the storm (IF YOU READ ANYTHING ON THIS POST, READ THIS)
For all of you out there who use generators and ANY kind of gas, PLEASE USE A CO DETECTOR -- and, yes, even if you use it outside. I lost my only child to carbon monoixde poisoning 5 and a half years ago!
Do NOT let it happen to you or anybody you love!
Weather Channel national map of watches/warnings:
Specific timely warnings:
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NEW HANOVER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WRIGHTSBORO...WINDEMERE...
WILMINGTON...SMITH CREEK...SILVER LAKE...SEAGATE...OGDEN...MYRTLE
GROVE...MASONBORO...CAROLINA BEACH
* UNTIL 200 AM EDT
--------------------
Wilmington: * AT 1024 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED FLASH FLOODING FROM TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS
IMMINENT. RAINFALL RATES SHOULD INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR MORE PER HOUR
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY...AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO REDBUG... EVERGREEN...HALLSBORO...FREEMAN...DELCO...LAKE WACCAMAW...FAIR BLUFF AND CHADBOURN
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY NEAR FREEMAN AND LAKE WACCAMAW.
L
It looks like the worst Ernesto can produce is about to roll into Wilmington.
If you are still on-line, please give us an update - you are FR's poster on the ground in Wilmington.
Tornado warning just popped up around Morehead City - take shelter and tune in to local media for more info.
Thanks.
Adding howlin's warning to the openning is a GREAT idea.......
That looks like the last of it, too.
Emerald Isle is getting killed.
Flood warnings are currently clustered around Wilmington, but should spread north and east as well overnight. If you are east of a line from Rocky Mount to Myrtle Beach and live in a flood prone area, make sure you don't go to sleep without being aware of the flood hazards in your area.
The rain has lightened up quite a bit right now.The wind is still gusty,but not like it was last hour.
It looks like you're about to get whacked one more time.
There is a really nasty feeder band causing the tornado warning around Morehead City. That band will probably continue to sweep up to the NE towards Hattaras. Anyone on the outer banks should be tuned in to local media for any weather alerts.
I concur. The worst short-term weather will work its way up the Outer Banks over the next few hours in the various feeder bands.
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