Posted on 08/31/2006 11:46:13 AM PDT by .cnI redruM
U.S. Senator Lincoln Chafee may lose his seat to challenger Steve Laffey, according to a new statewide Republican primary voter poll released today by the Bureau of Government Research and Services at Rhode Island College.
The survey was conducted August 28-30, 2006, at Rhode Island College by Victor L. Profughi, director of the Bureau of Government Research and Services. It is based on a statewide random sample of 363 likely Republican primary voters in Rhode Island. The sample was proportioned among the state’s geographic regions to reflect the likely voter contribution from each portion of the state. Overall, the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.1 percentage points.
If the September 12 primary were held today, 51 percent say they will vote for Steve Laffey, 34 percent support Senator Chafee, and 15 percent are undecided. A BGRS survey of Republican voters conducted in June had Laffey at 39 percent and Chafee at 36 percent. Chafee’s base is virtually unchanged since the June survey, while the number of Laffey supporters has grown 12 percentage points.
In the current poll, Laffey buries Chafee among male voters by nearly a 2 to 1 margin, 58 percent to 32 percent, with only 9 percent undecided. This gap has widened from 10 percent in June to 26 percent today. Among women, Chafee’s support has remained stagnant, while Laffey’s has increased. In June, 37 percent favored Chafee, compared with the current 36 percent. Laffey’s support among women has gone up from 35 percent in June to 45 percent.
Regionally, Laffey leads Chafee in Newport County (58 percent to 25 percent), in the Providence Suburbs (56 percent to 33 percent), Blackstone Valley (49 percent to 32 percent), Washington County (48 percent to 39 percent), and Western Rhode Island (42 percent to 37). Chafee is ahead only in the city of Providence (53 percent to 40 percent) and the East Bay (40 percent to 36 percent). Among unaffiliated voters, Chafee’s support has slipped from 49 percent in June to 43 percent now, while Laffey’s strength has gone up 10 percentage points (31 percent to 41 percent).
“Since early summer, Senator Chafee has been unable to expand his base of support from roughly one third of the likely Republican primary voters. The Lieberman phenomenon, where a partisan base closes ranks around the ‘true partisan’ candidate, seems to be at work in Rhode Island, as it was on the Democratic side in Connecticut. Laffey’s efforts to link Chafee with the extremely unpopular President Bush also appear to be paying off,” said Profughi.
Respondents polled were also asked who they would vote for in the Republican Primary race for Lieutenant Governor between Reginald Centracchio and Kerry King. Nearly half of those surveyed are either undecided or will not vote on this race (51 percent). Among voters, Centracchio has a 2 to 1 lead over King (31 percent to 18 percent).
The survey was conducted at a centralized telephone bank on the RIC campus on Monday, August 28 through Wednesday, August 30, between 5:00 and 9:00 p. m. The sample of 363 voters consisted of persons who identified themselves as likely Republican primary voters. Those interviewed were randomly chosen from most recent updated voting lists provided by the Office of the Secretary of State and were limited to registered Republicans and unaffiliated voters who said they planned to vote in the Republican primary.
The sample was controlled to reflect likely voter contribution by geographic region. Survey design, implementation, and administration were supervised by Profughi, who has nearly 40 years of experience conducting public opinion surveys in Rhode Island. He and members of his supervisory and computer analysis team have conducted more than 1,000 surveys in the state since 1970.
Overall, the current poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.
So why have Ohio voters decided to punish blackwell more than dewine in statewide polls ?
They aren't running against each other! It's all about Taft
But what about in Rhode Island? The other demo senator is a big pro abort (I can't remember his name - I think his first name is "Jack").
The bottom line, dewine is in a dead heat and blackwell is double digits down. dewine is "the rino", blackwell is the conservative.
as current Ohio secretary of state and his role in the 2004 election similar to Katherine Harris, Blackwell could very well have higher name recognition than DeWine.
I support rinos, I support conservatives, I support anyone who will beat the democrat.
Blackwell and Dewine both got an equal and substantial contribution from me.
"What we need are principled conservative career politicians"
"Career politicians" are exactly what this Country DOESN"T need. Our side loses because they back off their principles to appease the rats, not because they are not as devious and corrupt as the rats.
"Hugh is right about the need to get to 51, he just totally misses how to do it. He thinks we need to continually bend over for the RINO contingent.
Hugh is wrong - dead wrong"
He is not alone...I have been listening to Hannity on this issue for weeks. He is spending his time trying to scare out the base with tales of "Speaker Pelosi".
That is the problem..the republican establishment cannot understand that the problem this year is NOT bad republicans staying home, but the Republican establishment force feeding us crap candidates.
Imagine the enthusiasm if we had real republicans running in RI and Ohio. If our republican leadership supported real republicans in primary challenges instead of sucking up to the likes of Specter we would be ahead in the polls and at least a few senate seats in red states would not be in play.
Put another way, the 'hold your nose and vote' strategy is a loser. Our leadership, and I use that word very loosely, has to stop sucking up to our RINO moneyed interests, supporters of Amnesty and Cheap Labor, etc and start listening to the folk who brought them to the dance.
If they will not, they will lose and they only have themselves to blame.
A poll a month ago showed him getting cremed by Whitehouse but since then Laffey has picked up momentum from independents, per this primary poll, so I'd say Laffey has gone from an astronomical longshot to just an average longshot. I'll reevaluate once we see some new polls pre-primary.
I am pulling for Laffee. John Fund thinks he has a shot at it.
I am praying for rick and for Talent to hang in there and win.
If Lincoln Chafee were to lose the primary and run as an Independent, he would be doing conservatives a HUGE favor, even if that weren't his intention. Laffey would have a good shot against two liberals in a three way race.
Would Chafee be legally able to run as an Independent if he lost the primary? Any input from Rhode Island Freepers (if such people exist) would be most welcome!
Sorry, but I can't help busting a gut over a reference which refers to regions in Rhode Island. The county I live in takes longer to drive through. There are ranches in Texas which cover more real estate.
Considering the pissant size of the six New England states and the pissant quality of the politicians they elect and the fascination of the majority of their inhabitants with big government, they ought to be merged into one or two states (NH + ME and the other four), thereby reducing their 12 senators to four.
The filing deadline in Rhode Island was June 28.
"The filing deadline in Rhode Island was June 28."
Bummer. I like Stephen Laffey, but don't see him winning a general election this year.
Great post Jim...
Equating DeWine with Chafee is silly. DeWine might not be Tom Coburn, but he's with us FAR more then he is against us. That cannot be said of Chafee, which is right on essentially nothing. Chafee makes Arlen Specter look like a flaming right-wing nutjob, and Specter is to the left of DeWine easily.
FYI, there is twice the enthusiasm for the rino dewine than the real conservative blackwell in ohio.
Tell me why you think that is or why you think blackwell is not a real republican.
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