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"FYI, there is twice the enthusiasm for the rino dewine than the real conservative blackwell in ohio.

Tell me why you think that is or why you think blackwell is not a real republican."

I suspect the Ohio and national republican organization, with all the money and the big name talent, are out in force for our RINO. For heavens sake....that same combination in Pennsylvania managed to save Specter from the wrath of the base.

I work on the assumption that any state party is broken into three groups. The largest group by far are folk who are registered republican but neither contribute money nor volunteer to work in any campaign. The next biggest group is what I call the base and consists of the lions share of activists. They do contribute minor amounts and lots of time. They attend rally's, stuff envelopes, and serve on lower level republican committees. They are activists but with very little voice or power except in their numbers. The final group is by far the smallest, perhaps 1% of the party in the state BUT, they have the bucks. This is the group that picks the candidates for the big positions, contributes the big money, attends the fund raisers, hobnobs with the elites in the state and epitomize the country club crowd. They would not be caught dead at a rally in the rain but will cough up $1000 so attend a fund raiser with the VP. These are the folk who run things.

How they run things is easy. They control the party leadership and they have the money that can convince the far larger group, the republicans who only vote, that their guy is better than any challenger. This works because the the challenger seldom has any real money and his supporters, that base, is too small to clinch the vote by themselves.

The country club check writers can drag in a party superstar if the upstart real republican gets too dangerous which results in the party incumbent winning most primary fights, regardless of how worthless he is and how poorly he represents or supports the party, president or agenda.

Let me ask the question back at you....how would the good senator do if those check writers and the party superstars showed up to campaign for his challenger...same guy, same challenger?

I contend the challenger would be up 10 points. Chaffee in RI is in trouble because he is too far from his base and even the normal uninterested republican voter in RI to be saved by the powers that be...Ohio is still firmly controlled by the old boy check writing establishment for the Senator to be beaten in a Primary, BUT, a good bit of the base will stay home in disgust in the general and then the slight republican majority in the state may not be enough to save him.

When the dust settles, the party leadership will not say..."we didn't listen. We pushed crap on the base"...no, they will blame the base, call that group stupid and short sighted and hunt for a new RINO for the next election cycle.

They seldom learn.