Posted on 08/31/2006 11:46:13 AM PDT by .cnI redruM
U.S. Senator Lincoln Chafee may lose his seat to challenger Steve Laffey, according to a new statewide Republican primary voter poll released today by the Bureau of Government Research and Services at Rhode Island College.
The survey was conducted August 28-30, 2006, at Rhode Island College by Victor L. Profughi, director of the Bureau of Government Research and Services. It is based on a statewide random sample of 363 likely Republican primary voters in Rhode Island. The sample was proportioned among the state’s geographic regions to reflect the likely voter contribution from each portion of the state. Overall, the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.1 percentage points.
If the September 12 primary were held today, 51 percent say they will vote for Steve Laffey, 34 percent support Senator Chafee, and 15 percent are undecided. A BGRS survey of Republican voters conducted in June had Laffey at 39 percent and Chafee at 36 percent. Chafee’s base is virtually unchanged since the June survey, while the number of Laffey supporters has grown 12 percentage points.
In the current poll, Laffey buries Chafee among male voters by nearly a 2 to 1 margin, 58 percent to 32 percent, with only 9 percent undecided. This gap has widened from 10 percent in June to 26 percent today. Among women, Chafee’s support has remained stagnant, while Laffey’s has increased. In June, 37 percent favored Chafee, compared with the current 36 percent. Laffey’s support among women has gone up from 35 percent in June to 45 percent.
Regionally, Laffey leads Chafee in Newport County (58 percent to 25 percent), in the Providence Suburbs (56 percent to 33 percent), Blackstone Valley (49 percent to 32 percent), Washington County (48 percent to 39 percent), and Western Rhode Island (42 percent to 37). Chafee is ahead only in the city of Providence (53 percent to 40 percent) and the East Bay (40 percent to 36 percent). Among unaffiliated voters, Chafee’s support has slipped from 49 percent in June to 43 percent now, while Laffey’s strength has gone up 10 percentage points (31 percent to 41 percent).
“Since early summer, Senator Chafee has been unable to expand his base of support from roughly one third of the likely Republican primary voters. The Lieberman phenomenon, where a partisan base closes ranks around the ‘true partisan’ candidate, seems to be at work in Rhode Island, as it was on the Democratic side in Connecticut. Laffey’s efforts to link Chafee with the extremely unpopular President Bush also appear to be paying off,” said Profughi.
Respondents polled were also asked who they would vote for in the Republican Primary race for Lieutenant Governor between Reginald Centracchio and Kerry King. Nearly half of those surveyed are either undecided or will not vote on this race (51 percent). Among voters, Centracchio has a 2 to 1 lead over King (31 percent to 18 percent).
The survey was conducted at a centralized telephone bank on the RIC campus on Monday, August 28 through Wednesday, August 30, between 5:00 and 9:00 p. m. The sample of 363 voters consisted of persons who identified themselves as likely Republican primary voters. Those interviewed were randomly chosen from most recent updated voting lists provided by the Office of the Secretary of State and were limited to registered Republicans and unaffiliated voters who said they planned to vote in the Republican primary.
The sample was controlled to reflect likely voter contribution by geographic region. Survey design, implementation, and administration were supervised by Profughi, who has nearly 40 years of experience conducting public opinion surveys in Rhode Island. He and members of his supervisory and computer analysis team have conducted more than 1,000 surveys in the state since 1970.
Overall, the current poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.
No argument from me on that. Clean the Party. Purge the RINOs.
Lincoln Chaffe is a Dem! He didn't even vote for Bush!
Whos is the Democrat running for Senate in RI?? Unless he's REALLLLLLLLLY good, Laffey is going to win and win big!! Laffey is a great candidate who has head screwed on right.
Hugh Hewitt has led the fight to DEFEAT CHAFFEE!!! He has said NOT to give money to the Senate Committee...
I heard that Laffee did a good job in Cranston - they were bankrupt befor he took over. However, RI is a blue state. Unfortunate since it is at least 60% Catholic.
Have you even SEEN Laffey?? Who's running on the Dem side??
That goofy expression was one of the things during their debate that made Laffey seems so GOOD!!! He was a serious, NORMAL looking person and Chaffee looks Freaking Goofy!!
Chaffee did not vote for Alito, I believe. And if the senate majority were held by only one republican vote, he would pull a Jeffords and switch parties just to screw the GOP.
I've not seen replays of the debates - I think they've had two of 'em.
But from I've read on the 'Net, it sounded like Laffey did very well.
Sorry I missed that debate. In Chaffee's case, looks are not only skin deep.
I agree .. it's just that we can't do it all at once
We need to pick our battles carefully
Catholics are no longer a dem block. I believe a majority of us voted for Bush.
Laffey did ALL the right things in the debate...he was impressive....I have NO idea why these freepers say he can't win....he CAN win and he WILL win!!
It also shows the writers ignorance or blatant disregard for Chaffee's record. Also for him/her to think that all readers would buy such a line shows both ignorance and arrogance.
That's a lot of area for the size of Rhode Island, isn't it? Chafee needs his ass handed to him!
I've got it all figured out. We'll start with my top pick and work our way down the list.
Chafee will pull a Lieberman, and run as an independant just to screw the party.
Chafee would probably pull more dimwit votes than Republican. What Republican would ever vote for him if they had any other choice?
Laffey has called for Rumsfield to resign, but from the right, not from the left. That could be what they are talking about. Chafee responded that Sec of Defense is Bush's business and he keeps whomever he wants there.
I agree. Here in Colorado we decided to send a veterinarian, Wayne Allard, to congress in 1998, and he's proven to be a staunch conservative and excellent senator.
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