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Washington Senate Poll: Cantwell (D) 56%, McGavick (R) 39% (Survey USA)
SurveyUSA ^ | 28 August 2006 | SurveyUSA

Posted on 08/29/2006 4:12:21 PM PDT by okstate

In a November Head-to-Head, Cantwell Defeats McGavick:

In a hypothetical head-to-head matchup in Washington today, 8/28/06, incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Maria Cantwell beats Republican challenger Mike McGavick, 56% to 39%, according to a SurveyUSA poll of 808 Registered Voters conducted exclusively for KING-TV Seattle. Cantwell leads by 29 points among women and by 4 points among men, a 25-point "gender gap." Cantwell leads among Democrats 15:1. McGavick leads among Republicans 7:1. Independents favor Cantwell 3:2. Those who approve of President George W. Bush's job performance choose McGavick 80% to 16%. Those who disapprove of Bush's performance choose Cantwell 81% to 14%. President Bush's approval rating among Registered Voters in Washington is 35%. The election is on 11/7/06.

Filtering:

1,000 Washington adults were interviewed 8/25/06 - 8/27/06. Of them, 808 were registered to vote. Crosstabs reflect Registered Voters. This survey did not attempt to identify or screen for "Likely Voters." The Washington State Primary to determine the party nominees is 9/19/06. After the Primary, research by SurveyUSA in this state will be of Likely Voters.

808 Registered Voters
Margin of Sampling Error: 3.5%

McGavick (R) 39%
Cantwell (D) 56%
Undecided 5%

Extremely detailed crosstabs are displayed at the link.

Partisan breakdown is 38% D, 30% R, 26% I.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Washington
KEYWORDS: 2006; 2006polls; cantwell; election2006; electioncongress; elections2006; electionscongress; mcgavick; surveyusa; washington
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To: Baynative
End of discussion.

Does that mean you don't buy the poll they did a week ago showing Dave Reichert handily defeating Darcy Burner in WA-8?
21 posted on 08/29/2006 4:47:43 PM PDT by HostileTerritory
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To: Proud_USA_Republican
There is no way in hell that Cantwell will beat McGavick in Eastern WA.

Absolutely correct. (Of course, stranger things have happened.)

22 posted on 08/29/2006 4:47:53 PM PDT by pollyannaish
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To: new yorker 77

You have no justification for your statement.

http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2005/02/the_hotlines_su.html - Interview with Survey USA editor.

http://www.androidworld.com/prod35.htm - Who were the best Pollsters? (2004 election)

http://surveyusa.com/Scorecards/2004PresGovSenOnly.xls (President, Senator, and Governor race accuracy in 2004)

http://surveyusa.com/Scorecards/SurveyUSA2005ElectionScoreCard.htm (Accuracy in 2005 election)


23 posted on 08/29/2006 4:50:16 PM PDT by okstate
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To: pollyannaish

no way.

Maria is hated in Eastern WA.

I also believe this poll is bogus because only 800 people were polled for this entire state.
So easy to bias a poll with such a low number.


24 posted on 08/29/2006 4:52:32 PM PDT by Proud_USA_Republican (We're going to take things away from you on behalf of the common good. - Hillary Clinton)
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To: Proud_USA_Republican

800 is an average polling sample. Nothing unusual about it. It's actually more voters than Rasmussen usually uses.


25 posted on 08/29/2006 4:55:58 PM PDT by okstate
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To: Proud_USA_Republican
She is. Are you from here? I wondered because our phone has been just ringing off the wall with polling firms on all kind of subjects from how we feel about the President, to immigration to Cantwell/McGavick. It has NEVER been like this.

It leads me to believe that Cantwell may be feeling enough heat that McGavick picked up some national money, and the dems are starting to worry over what they thought was a completely safe seat.

Gregoire isn't helping matters, since she is hated more than either Cantwell or Murray.

It's going to be interesting this fall.
26 posted on 08/29/2006 4:56:03 PM PDT by pollyannaish
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To: Proud_USA_Republican

I believe the poll is of RVs and not LVs, so it is essentially worthless.


27 posted on 08/29/2006 4:59:39 PM PDT by mwl1
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To: Proud_USA_Republican

I believe the poll is of RVs and not LVs, so it is essentially worthless.


28 posted on 08/29/2006 4:59:40 PM PDT by mwl1
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To: Republican Wildcat; sionnsar; bigfootbob; RabidBartender; zbigreddogz; JohnnyZ; ...

This poll came after McGavick's 1993 drunk driving conviction broke. Hopefully, the gap will close after the impact wears off.


29 posted on 08/29/2006 5:03:45 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued (illegal aliens commit crimes that Americans won't commit)
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Comment #30 Removed by Moderator

To: okstate

Total BS.


31 posted on 08/29/2006 5:05:00 PM PDT by DuxFan4ever (The next rational liberal I meet will be the first.)
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To: Baynative

I ran into one of those people this summer at the Market. Took our kids up there to show them how "the other half" perceives life.

I was accosted by a woman (I had said something kind to her, basically along the lines of "no hurry") who told me I just didn't understand what it was like to be a person with chronic illness in America. That she was going to go to Boston where things were MUCH better. It's a long story, but really exposed my children to what a lack of gratitude can do for a person.

My children have asked that we never go back. I think it was good for them.


32 posted on 08/29/2006 5:09:14 PM PDT by pollyannaish
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Comment #33 Removed by Moderator

To: okstate

Probably an outliar check out the Startegic Vision Poll which shows Cantwell with a 5% lead like all of the other polls were showing. This one just conudcted between 8-25 and 8-28.

http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/washington_poll_082906.htm


34 posted on 08/29/2006 5:18:49 PM PDT by bilhosty (to hell with ABCNNBCBS)
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To: okstate

Survey USA is NOT a good poll, and don't reply back that it is. Go back to the Live Threads the day before, the day of, and the day after election 2004. The polls that got it RIGHT are all in there. And Survey USA wasn't one of them. That wasn't an oversight.

Also, Washington may go Dem statewide often, but 39% is completely unbelieveable. I live here. Eastern WA is more conservative. Western WA is more Liberal. The state is fairly close to split. This result is as phony as Zogby's efforts.


35 posted on 08/29/2006 6:26:45 PM PDT by Soul Seeker (Kobach: Amnesty is going from an illegal to a legal position, without imposing the original penalty.)
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To: okstate

There is just as much chance of a Conservative being elected in WA state, as monkeys flying out of Bill Clintons behind. It is a waste of time and money to support any candidate with an R in a statewide election. IOW, the fix is in, no matter the vote totals.


36 posted on 08/29/2006 6:44:44 PM PDT by jeremiah (Since lower wage earning people are a net drain on taxes, what is the benefit of illegals ??)
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To: okstate

Sorry, but I just don't buy that one. they sure as hell didn't poll that down here in SW Washington, where Maria Cantwell is about as popular as a case of the crabs...


37 posted on 08/29/2006 7:28:27 PM PDT by Bean Counter (Stout hearts!!)
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To: okstate

I thought she was below %50.


38 posted on 08/29/2006 8:22:08 PM PDT by CPT Clay (Drill ANWR, Personal Accounts NOW.)
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To: bilhosty

It's certainly possible. I am not contending that THIS poll is valid, merely that SUSA is generally quite reliable.


39 posted on 08/29/2006 9:00:23 PM PDT by okstate
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To: Soul Seeker

Links, please.

I have provided several on this thread, all of which attest to Survey USA's extremely good accuracy. Until you have some evidence to back up your assertions you're just spouting hot air.


40 posted on 08/29/2006 9:02:17 PM PDT by okstate
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