Washington Senate Poll: Cantwell (D) 56%, McGavick (R) 39% (Survey USA)

SurveyUSA ^ | 28 August 2006 | SurveyUSA

[okstate]

In a November Head-to-Head, Cantwell Defeats McGavick:

In a hypothetical head-to-head matchup in Washington today, 8/28/06, incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Maria Cantwell beats Republican challenger Mike McGavick, 56% to 39%, according to a SurveyUSA poll of 808 Registered Voters conducted exclusively for KING-TV Seattle. Cantwell leads by 29 points among women and by 4 points among men, a 25-point "gender gap." Cantwell leads among Democrats 15:1. McGavick leads among Republicans 7:1. Independents favor Cantwell 3:2. Those who approve of President George W. Bush's job performance choose McGavick 80% to 16%. Those who disapprove of Bush's performance choose Cantwell 81% to 14%. President Bush's approval rating among Registered Voters in Washington is 35%. The election is on 11/7/06.

Filtering:

1,000 Washington adults were interviewed 8/25/06 - 8/27/06. Of them, 808 were registered to vote. Crosstabs reflect Registered Voters. This survey did not attempt to identify or screen for "Likely Voters." The Washington State Primary to determine the party nominees is 9/19/06. After the Primary, research by SurveyUSA in this state will be of Likely Voters.

808 Registered Voters
Margin of Sampling Error: 3.5%

McGavick (R) 39%
Cantwell (D) 56%
Undecided 5%

Extremely detailed crosstabs are displayed at the link.

Partisan breakdown is 38% D, 30% R, 26% I.

[okstate]

This poll was conducted entirely after the news of McGavick's DWI came out. Granted, it's a poll of registered voters, but even an RV-LV disconnect can't explain away a 17 point lead. Survey USA has not polled WA yet in this election cycle. The only other companies to do so are Strategic Vision and Rasmussen.

Rasmussen trendlines:
3-07 Cantwell +13
4-04 Cantwell +8
5-08 Cantwell +5
6-13 Cantwell +4
7-17 Cantwell +11
8-15 Rasmussen +6

Strategic Vision trendlines:
3-26 Cantwell +10
4-23 Cantwell +8
5-21 Cantwell +5
6-25 Cantwell +4
7-23 Cantwell +4
8-27 Cantwell +5

SurveyUSA is usually pretty accurate, so either this poll is just an outlier or the DWI revelation is hurting McGavick seriously.

[okstate]

Sorry, that last Rasmussen poll should read "8-15 Cantwell +6"

[Proud_USA_Republican]

I'm sure they picked some totally unbiased place like Capitol Hill or Fremont to poll these people.

This stinks worse than Zogby's mega barfers.

[Republican Wildcat]

Survey USA is normally quite reliable, so this is not good news for that Senate race.

[okstate]

The crosstabs at the link are divided geographically. There are a lot of people from Seattle, but that might be how Washington state really votes. I don't know much about WA politics.

[Parley Baer]

Hate to see this. Corruption and lying 58% with Honesty at 39%.

[Integrityrocks]

Well, I strongly doubt the polls, but if they turn out to be even close to reality, that State deserves every bit of socialist BS they have to live with.

[B Knotts]

Why the heck didn't McGavick reveal this DUI before getting into the race?

[Coop]

I know at least one of the earlier WA polls I saw showed the Green Party (I think) candidate pulling 5%, which I figured would eventually end up in Cantwell's column.

[gogeo]

I was surveyed for this. In fact, I've been surveyed twice in the last few weeks. The first was done for Darcy Burner's campaign. The second was this.

What's odd...is that I recognized the same voice. The same company polled both. I don't think it's a viable poll.

[pissant]

He's probably not helped himself with his lame commercials.

[Proud_USA_Republican]

There is no way in hell that Cantwell will beat McGavick in Eastern WA. When I saw these numbers, I knew this poll was a pile of bs.
Eastern WA = Cantwell 54% - McGavick - 42%??????

This poll is a trainwreck. I'm sure none of those polled from Seattle Metro was from Bellevue or Redmond. They probably did the polling down by Pike Place Market.

"Hey you with the ten face piercings and mohawk day, who would you vote for????"

[new yorker 77]

Survey USA is a CRAP polling firm.

A chimp throwing feces at a wall is more accurate.

[okstate]

If you recognized an actual voice you weren't polled for this, I don't think.

SurveyUSA, like Rasmussen, uses what's called "robot polling". The voices are computer-generated.

Polling experts are still debating whether or not this robot polling is more accurate than using actual interviewers, but if SurveyUSA and Rasmussen's performances in 2004 are any indication, robot polling is the way of the future.

[okstate]

That statement is completely incorrect. SurveyUSA, Rasmussen, and Mason-Dixon were the most accurate pollsters in 2004.

[new yorker 77]

Rasmussen and Mason-Dixon yes.

Survey USA - NO.

[pollyannaish]

Hey! I resent that. A vast majority of this state is run around with a ring through our nose by the middle of a corrupt and stinking King County.

Leave the rest of us out of it.

[Proud_USA_Republican]

Just like clockwork, the liberal media starts unleashing its biased polls trying to influence another election.

[bybybill]

Whats the story on the DUI?