Winds Of Political Change Beginning To Favor Republicans

Real Clear Politics (originally in USA Today) ^ | 8/28/06 | Michael Barone

[Rawlings]

There seems to have been a change in the political winds. They've been blowing pretty strongly against George W. Bush and the Republicans this spring and early this summer. Now, their velocity looks to be tapering off or perhaps shifting direction.

When asked what would affect the future, the British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan famously said: "Events, dear boy. Events." The event this month that I think has done most to shape opinion was the arrest in London on Aug. 9 of 23 Muslims suspected of plotting to blow up American airliners over the Atlantic.

The arrests were a reminder that there still are lots of people in the world -- and quite possibly in this country, too -- who are trying to kill as many of us as they can and to destroy our way of life. They are not unhappy because we haven't raised the minimum wage lately or because Bush rejected the Kyoto Treaty or even because we're in Iraq.

They've been trying to kill us for years, going back at least to 1983, when a Hezbollah suicide bomber killed 241 American servicemen in Lebanon. Then they attacked the World Trade Center, the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, and the USS Cole in Aden -- all while Bill Clinton was president. Sept. 11 woke us up to the threat. The political acrimony of 2004 and 2005 and this year made it seem remote. The London arrests reminded us it's still there.

We've had other reminders, too. For four years, Hollywood has seemed mostly uninterested in the war on terrorism -- in vivid contrast to its enlistment in World War II.

But this year, we've seen the release of "United 93," and, in "World Trade Center," Oliver Stone presents us not with one of his conspiracy theories but, instead, a story of heroism. On Sept. 10 and 11, ABC will devote six hours of prime time to "The Path to 9-11," a fast-paced, bracing docudrama that tells the story of the terrorists and the people who tried to stop them, from the first WTC bombing in 1993 to 9-11 itself. And this will be only one of many commemorations of the fifth anniversary.

As it happens, the London arrests came almost exactly 24 hours after antiwar candidate Ned Lamont, flanked by Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson, claimed victory over Sen. Joseph Lieberman in the Connecticut Democratic primary. The Lamont victory -- and the rejection of the party's 2000 vice presidential nominee -- sharpened the contrast between the two major parties.

One, it seems, would withdraw from Iraq as soon as possible without regard for the consequences -- an initially popular position for those who consider our effort there either misbegotten or hopelessly bungled. The other, it seems, would stay the course until we achieve our goals -- one that may become more acceptable if people come to think that withdrawal would not make us safe. The London arrests seem to have accelerated this thought process.

Polls since the London arrests suggest what has been happening. Bush's job approval was up significantly in the Gallup Poll, usually the most volatile of national polls, and the Democratic margin in the generic question (Which party's candidate for the House would you vote for?) was sharply reduced. There was a similar trend in generic vote in the Rasmussen poll, which is ordinarily much less volatile than Gallup.

Connecticut polls showed Lieberman, running as an independent, ahead of Lamont, with Lamont having strikingly high negatives for a candidate with such limited public exposure. It seems to be a fact -- remember the Paul Wellstone funeral in 2002? -- that when most Americans see the hard left of the Democratic Party in action, they don't much like what they see.

Of course, they don't like to see violence in Iraq, either.

But the sectarian killings that flared up in Baghdad in June and July have been reduced -- by 30 percent, says ABC News -- by intensive patrolling by U.S. and, more importantly, Iraqi troops. It's not clear, of course, whether the reductions will continue. Other threats still exist, like Iran's nuclear program.

Earlier this summer, I thought that voters had decided that the Republicans deserved to lose but were not sure that the Democrats deserved to win, and that they were going to wait, as they did in the 1980 presidential and the 1994 congressional elections, to see if the opposition was an acceptable alternative. Events seem to have made that a harder sell for Democrats. A change in the winds.

[jrooney]

We WILL MAINTAIN BOTH. I for one will not be surprised for pickups in one or both. Remember the look on Terry McCauliff's face the morning after the 2002 elections, he was shell shocked! The donks thought then they would do allot better because polling said so. Well they had their a**es handed to them. This time will be no different.

[decal]

"There seems to have been a change in the political winds. They've been blowing pretty strongly against George W. Bush and the Republicans this spring and early this summer."

Doesn't this stuff happen every election year? Dems get all misty over polls taken in the spring and summer when normal working people aren't even thinking about elections.

I remember in 1984, just after the Dem convention, Sen. Mondale had a lead in the polls over Pres. Reagan. Anyone remember how it turned out in November?

The GOP breaks even at worst in the Senate and gains 5-10 seats in the House.

Unfortunately, Howard Dean will be fired as head of the DNC as a result. Fortunately, nobody any better will be willing to take the post.

[jazusamo]

I agree we'll gain seats in both Houses. Welcome to FR.

[Sofa King]

Really, I don't think that much, if anything, has changed since 2 years ago.

[Penner]

Whether this bump is permanent or not, the terror issue will (because it must) trump other issues.

What about illegal immigration?

This, in my opinion, will help the GOP actually make gains in November. I think the GOP will get 1 or 2 in the House and 3 or more in the Senate.

Dream on.

[Rawlings]

Immigration cannot trump national security. Yes I know they are linked. But please...you think the Democrats will solidify our borders. No Democrats=Safe Borders. Period.

[jrooney]

Though the GOP is not handling immigration perfectly, they are doing allot more than the donks would do. Most people realize the donks would be much weaker on immigration issues. Therefore, the immigration issue is not an anchor for the GOP. Some with horse blinders on might think so but anyone that takes the time to think how the donks would handle it realize, voting GOP is still the best alternative.

[Howlin]

What about illegal immigration?

CBS News/New York Times Poll. Aug. 17-21, 2006. N=1,206 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3 (for all adults).

					.
"If you had to say, which of these six issues do you think is MOST important for political leaders to concentrate on right now? (1) Fighting terrorism. (2) Strengthening the economy. (3) Dealing with the war in Iraq. (4) Lowering gas prices. (5) Reducing the cost of heath care. OR, (6) Dealing with the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah."
					.
			ALL Adults	Repub- licans	Demo- crats	Indepen- dents
			%	%	%	%
	Fighting terrorism		24	41	12	21
	Dealing with war in Iraq		22	15	29	22
	Strengthening economy		20	16	20	23
	Reducing health care costs		18	11	20	20
	Lowering gas prices		9	8	11	7
	Dealing with Israel, Hezbollah		6	7	7	5
	Unsure		1	2	1	2

 

CBS News Poll. Aug. 11-13, 2006. N=974 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.
					.
"What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today?" Open-ended
					.
			8/11-13/06	7/21-25/06
			%	%
	War in Iraq		28	23
	Terrorism (general)		17	7
	Economy and jobs		11	11
	Gas prices/Heating oil crisis		7	8
	Immigration		4	4
	Foreign policy		3	4
	Defense/Military		3	3
	President Bush		3	3
	Other		20	31
	Unsure		4	6

[Howlin]

Immigration cannot trump national security.

Period.

[prov1813man]

It seems to me that every close market ought to be saturated with clips of lamont, sharpton, jackson, striesand, moore, conyers, pelosi, dean, reid and of course Hillary!, doing what they do and remind the voters it's not the local candidate they are voting for or against they are voting for the above group of traitorous nutbags to run the country.

Is it possible we have fallen that far? I don't think so.

[jrooney]

And this is a New York Times CBS Poll that CAN NOT GET ANYMORE BIASED AGAINST REPUBLICANS. If they could have used illegal immigration in the poll to hammer the GOP, they would have.

[jrooney]

I agree. The GOP has more money on hand and they will use it to illuminate the differences. The closer we get to Nov., the better the GOP will look to most voters.

[Rembrandt]

"..Bush rejected the Kyoto Treaty ..'

GW did not reject the Kyoto Treaty. Bubba tried to get it passed at the end of his second term and the Senate unanimously deep sixed it; that means each and every Dimocrat Sinator also nixed it!

[TeleStraightShooter]

the alternative is too awful and dangerous to consider.

Concur, considering the (D)'s exit strategy from the Iraqi theatre of operations in the world wide ar on terror.

[Owen]

There is nothing new under the sun. The party out of power tends to win a few seats in off year elections. No reason to think the tendency is any different now than other times. There is nothing new in society facing problems. Problems have always been present -- and they lead to loss of a few seats by the party in power in an off year election.

A few seats aren't enough when the majority is so large. Winning a seat or two would probably cost Dean his job, and Hillary will annoint his replacement, whose job will be to ensure she is nominated in 2008.

[Porterville]

The only source worth paying attention.

[Republic Rocker]

LET'S ROLL .............!

[Howlin]

If they could have used illegal immigration in the poll to hammer the GOP, they would have.

But they can't because NOBODY is naming that in their polls; if they did, you better believe the NY Times would.

You people that believe that immigration is going to be the Number One issue come November are going to be as dumbfounded as the Democrats are coming Wednesday morning.

[Rembrandt]

"Unfortunately, Howard Dean will be fired as head of the DNC as a result."

I'd be sad and disappointed if Howie the Wowie were removed. He is a hugh and series advantageous for us.

[jrooney]

Music to my ears! To the squeemish, close your eyes because it is going to get bloody.