Posted on 08/28/2006 11:23:42 AM PDT by gopwinsin04
The results of the latest GOP Bloggers straw poll are in. The poll was posted on the Red State homepage over the weekend, and first-choice results are as follows (full results with RS results in parentheses).
Giuliani 24.6% (22.0%) Gingrich 21.1% (19.5%) Romney 12.8% (15.8%) Allen 11.5% (11.3%) Tancredo 6.7% (4.5%) McCain 6.4% (6.7%) Hagel 2.8% (3.3%) Brownback 2.5% (3.2%) Huckabee 1.5% (1.8%) Frist 1.1% (0.9%) Pataki 0.3% (0.3%)Read on...
The Macaca incident has clearly devastated Allen’s numbers in the blogosphere, his stronghold. He used to have sky-high favorability, largely because he hadn’t done anything to offend anyone. He also used to run first or second (tangling with Giuliani) with 20% to 30% in polls like this. Once undefined, he has now been defined in a hugely negative way, dropping to fourth with 11.5% support.
The only true direct comparison is the results for individual blogs. From July to August, Allen dropped 23.9% in net favorability among RedState readers. RealClearPolitics also ran the poll both months – and probably has an audience that’s even more plugged-in politically than RedState. On that site, Allen dropped an astonishing 41.6% points in a month, and now has 6.5% first place votes. Allen probably still retains some “true-believer” support among the more conservative sites of the blogosphere. Let’s see if that holds up.
Who’s the new conservative “it” candidate? Newt! The conservative mantle has shifted to Newt over the last few months. He got a huge boost last month for being all over the Israel-Hezbollah war. Allen’s implosion has given Newt’s people a reason to stick around, at least for a while. Vis Numar makes this development the headline, but inaccurately notes that his numbers went from +1% to +40% in a month. That was actually from a poll taken earlier in the year, but it highlights how far Newt has come.
Bottom line: It looks like Newt’s decision to stay out the race until November of ’07 could throw the race into some turmoil, with all the major campaigns calculating what happens if Newt gets in. He’s clearly trying to play kingmaker and anoint the preferred conservative if he doesn’t run, and numbers like this suggest he could pull it off.
Giuliani and Romney show positive movement. There’s a consistent pattern of Romney and Giuliani momentum among a few of the bigger blogs participating in the poll. Among RedState readers, Romney moved up a net 10.9% and Giuliani a net 10.8% in acceptability. On RealClearPolitics, Romney moved up 18.9% to Giuliani’s 12.5%. On Blogs for Bush, Giuliani moved up 22.8% and Romney was up 14.8%.
McCain supporters love Giuliani and Giuliani supporters are pretty fond of Romney – handy reference should either of the two offline frontrunners falter.
Men and boys by AcademicElephant Looks like the men are being seperated from the boys--but I'm still having trouble getting excited about any of them.
"I'm kind of old-fashioned. I like to engage my brain before my mouth." Donald Rumsfeld
Pretty pathetic. Proof that Giuliani can't begin to hold together the Republican coalition.
You think FR is a representative sample of GOP voters?
By the way, another 35% of Freepers go for two other "liberals," in EV's world. It appears that only about 21% "get it."
Absolutely not. Which makes the situation even worse for Rudy. If he can't even break 50% in a poll like that on a site like this, he would fare far worse out in the real world.
Why do you think Freepers are more pro Rudy, and Romney, than GOP voters at large. Do you think they are more liberal?
Well, I guess we have a lot of work to do, then, eh?
FR is infested with RINOs and ignoramuses these days, unfortunately.
But RINOs, especially those who are weak on the God-given right to life, don't fare well in the Iowa Caucuses and in key primaries. Factor in the gay agenda, judicial nominations, border security, spending, tax reform, etc., and from a conservative activist perspective, this is just about the most pathetic field imaginable.
But things are just getting started.
Gonna be some major surprises yet.
Sorry you misunderstood. I wasn't including YOU in that sentence. I was talking about conservatives. ;-)
Well I would be willing in a fit of delusional hubris to take responsibility for the former, but not the struck latter. :) FR is a RINO kingdom there days eh? Who knew?
Lots of conservatives know.
But there still aren't enough RINOs or ignoramuses or compromisers to push Rudy over 50%, even when you phrase the poll question as a doomsday scenario. ;-)
OK. Thanks for the clarification. I don't play the capture the word game. It bores me. However, I am no doubt overall to the left of the Freeper center of gravity, and have admitted it early and often. I consider myself overall a mere moderate "conservative." Dang, I just played capture the word lite. Oh the horror.
*shaking my head*
If I am labeled a liberal, it would drain the word of useful meaning. Trust me.
If that's the case, then those words have been dumbed down to the point of uselessness in describing any portion of the real world.
You know, you're walking proof of my thesis that certain folks are trying to move the standards leftward.
Even at the expense of the language.
Just what does Macaca mean, anyway?
The primary export of Washington, DC? ;-)
The Ying:
Pro a robust American foreign policy and robust arms.
Pro school vouchers, and loath school teacher unions.
Against trial lawyers and laws which facilitate them.
For loser pays attorneys fees.
For free trade and markets.
For a two step on immigration, with no change in illegal status until the borders the illegal flow is truncated, and then the illegals go home before applying for some interim status.
For the death penalty.
Against a racial or ethnic spoils system.
For profiling in crime control and at the airports.
Not hostile to religion in the public square, or religion in general.
Think medical subsidies are a black hole and need to be cut back.
Think the endangered species act has been abused, and used to thwart sensible and needed development, and is largely crap.
Don't think activist judges should adopt my social views by judicial fiat; let the ballot box decide. In fact, judges should be reticent in general to try to move very far outside the legal box as previously understood.
Favor appointment of hard line conservative judges to appellate courts and SCOTUS given the belief as to the above.
Against the politics of victimization.
The Yang, or Yang lite:
For the progressive income tax, but at top marginal rates not exceeding 40%.
For legalized gay marriage.
Against public secondary school prayer in classrooms.
Believe in the evolution theory and againt teaching "creationism" and "intelligent design" in science classes in secondary public schools.
Think global warming is probably real, but don't know why, and question the efficacy of suggested solutions. Not paranoid about the erosion of US soveignty, or international organizations and rules, to which the US chooses to agree to.
Against privitization of social security.
Favor no child left behind, and national standards for educational performance with teeth.
Am skeptical of states rights, as the issue is typically postured.
Think gun control should be an empirical issue, not an ideological or arguably constitutional one.
Favor zoning laws and land use conrols, due to economic externalities.
Favor pollution controls, due to economic externalities, with a voucher system of tradeable credits to control it.
Favor government ownership of some land to preserve it.
Am not worried about the death of the English language in American, or a negative impact of illegal aliens in America over the long term. They will slowly assimilate, and faster than some past cohorts of immigrants, which were legal, because almost all immigrants were legal.
Think illegals should get secondary schooling for free, and emergency medical care, for free, if impecunious.
Am not hostile to Islam per se.
Favor legalized first trimester abortions, heavily regulated and limited second trimester abortions, and against third trimester abortions, except if the life of the mother is endangered.
In sum:
I could no doubt think of more issues, but do you think the above adds up to be a "liberal" as that term is commonly understood in modern American politics?
What do you think of my list Luis? :)
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