Posted on 08/28/2006 10:17:54 AM PDT by SJackson
DESPITE the inclination in Israel to accept the verdict of the Muslim world that Hezbollah came out on top in the recent war, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, in his stunning interview yesterday, in effect handed the victory to Israel. In acknowledging that he had erred in estimating the likely Israeli reaction and that he had not foreseen the devastating consequences for Lebanon, he asserted that Israel's deterrent power had not been eroded by the war, but enhanced.
It has been widely mooted in the Muslim world, and to a large extent in Israel itself, that Israel's inability to stop Hezbollah's rocket fire into northern Israel in a month of warfare - and its failure to complete the capture of southern Lebanon - had shattered the image of the Israeli army as virtually invincible and exposed it as vulnerable to militants.
The thrust of Nasrallah's remarks, however, was that the punishment inflicted by Israel had been too great a price for Hezbollah and Lebanon to bear. "There has not been a war like this in the history of wars," he said, a view that reflected his stunned appearance in a taped interview in a Beirut bunker at the war's beginning after Israeli warplanes had begun to level an entire Hezbollah neighbourhood above his head.
In contrast with the aggressive way in which he spoke of Israel in the past, Nasrallah's tone during this interview was markedly restrained. Gone was the taunting nature of his famous speech several years ago in which he said Israel was a cobweb that would be swept away by the first strong wind.
He had demonstrated this dismissiveness by authorising periodic cross-border raids and recurring rocket attacks on Israeli army positions along the border in the six years since Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon. In saying now that he would not have carried out last month's raid in which two Israeli soldiers were captured if he had known the consequences, he was clearly implying he would not do something like that in the future - for fear of similar consequences.
That is deterrence, something Israel had lost against Hezbollah in recent years.
Nasrallah's remarks apparently reflect a growing reassessment within Lebanon of the war's balance sheet as south Lebanon residents return to mauled villages that Hezbollah had turned into military strong points and that were pummelled by Israel in the fighting.
Hezbollah has not reacted thus far to the killing of a dozen of its fighters by Israeli soldiers since the ceasefire went into effect. Hezbollah's lack of response on the ground can be seen as reflecting the reduced legitimacy it now has in Lebanon in the wake of the war's devastation and its reluctance, at least for now, to revive hostilities.
More than 1300 Lebanese were killed in the war, mostly civilians. Hezbollah has admitted to the deaths of a few score of its fighters but Israel says that up to 800 Hezbollah fighters were killed. Israel says it has the names of 430 dead fighters, presumably taken from identity cards.
Israel itself has lost about 160 soldiers and civilians. The piles of war-related rubble are also higher in Lebanon.
However, it is not the statistics of death and destruction that determine who won the war, if there be a winner, but perception, particularly the perception of the man who inadvertently started it.
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My impression was that he could have stopped the assault at any time by returning the kidnapped soldiers and accepting a negotiated settlement. The fact that the soldiers have still not been returned belies his comments in this interview.
It looks like Hezbollah has entered that stage.
Hostilities would have halted by Israel, at least for awhile, if Nasty had just stopped the rocket attacks. I agree with your assessment. He could have stopped almost all of the destruction if he really didn't want it. He's a liar.
"...in effect handed the victory to Israel. In acknowledging that he had erred in estimating the likely Israeli reaction and that he had not foreseen the devastating consequences for Lebanon, he asserted that Israel's deterrent power had not been eroded by the war, but enhanced."
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IMO
An outright lie. Lies & deception they are best at.
A political statement issued to deflect internal criticism.
Israel may have regained -some- lost respect, but the burning question is 'will it be enough to prevent more attacks?' and sadly, I don't think so. In fact, I don't think it was near enough. Hezbollah doesn't give one red-cent about what happened to the citizens of Southern Lebanon unless they can use it for propaganda.
Even if Hezbollah has regained respect (fear is what it really is), the rest of the Islamic world hasn't.
I agree that it is an outright lie - but not for internal purposes (at least not primarily). This will have the effect of bolstering Olmert - who, IMHO, is a bumbling appeaser who handed a great political victory to Hezbollah and a stunning political defeat to his own nation, and who has betrayed the brave soldiers of the IDF and the unfortunate soldiers who have been kidnapped.
Nasrallah may be many things, but stupid isn't one of them. He wants the Peres-advised Olmert to remain in power, and to keep a labor organizer as the head of the Israeli defensse establishment...and what better way to ensure that than to whine about how the "big, bad Jooos kicked our asses?" Guaran-f'ing-teed, Olmert & Co. will be crowing all over the place about this.
I predict it will be back...and soon
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