A thirty-mile shift to the east and there will be no US landfall, either in Florida or the Outer Banks.
Posted on 08/28/2006 7:27:21 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Florida Governor Jeb Bush ordered a state of emergency in advance of Ernesto's anticipated Florida landfall as a hurricane. During his press briefing, Governor Bush emphasized the need to, "Have your family plan in place. Be prepared to be on your own for 72 hours. I know it sounds like a broken record." Jeb then repeated his message in Spanish.
All of the South Florida peninsula and Keys are under a hurricane watch, and portions of the watch areas may be upgraded to hurricane warnings later today.
NASA is moving Space Shuttle Atlantis from the launch pad back to its protective hangar, with the launch postponed until at least Sept. 7-8.
Hurricane Ernesto was downgraded to Tropical Storm status after battering Haiti and the Dominican Republic all day Sunday. The death toll in Haiti from Ernesto currently stands at 1 person; storm reports from Hispaniola are scarce this morning.
Ernesto has approached the eastern portion of Cuba, where the government issued a hurricane warning for six provinces, tourists were evacuated, and baseball games were played earlier Sunday than originally scheduled.
Public Advisories Updated every three hours.
Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours
Ernesto Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 3 & 5 day forecast tracks
Buoy Data Florida & Eastern GOM
Satellite Images
Additional Resources:
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Tropical Storm Ernesto I
Hurricane Ernesto
I think the Carolinas are going to get a lot of rain. They said last night on Fox it might stall off the coast of the Carolinas.
Sounds like shades of Hurricane Floyd 1999....
We'll take it.
This will be no Floyd. Floyd was a monster, a huge hurricane. I've seen sat photos of thunderstorm flare-ups over Cuba with more impressive convection than the current signature for Ernesto. The only thing keeping it going right now is the momentum of the winds that are already in motion - there isn't much deep convection near the center.
Since the models still aren't in agreement, it's a tough call at this point for the FL east coast.
Got it, thanks.
At 8 a.m., the fifth named storm of the hurricane season had a top sustained wind speed of 45 mph, down from 75 mph Sunday. It was centered 20 miles west of Guantanamo, Cuba, and about 515 miles southeast of Key West. It was moving northwest at 12 mph.
"It has a good chance to regain hurricane status," said Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center.
Even the Almanac predicts a hurrycane for the east coast. A light reading: http://www.farmersalmanac.com/weather/uszone3.html
Tolls were suspended yesterday on the Card Sound road, presume that's still in effect, don't know about the TPK.
Oh boy, do I remember Floyd (probably a depression or TS when it got to me in northwestern Delaware). I was a sophomore at the University of Delaware, and a bunch of guys from my floor at my dorm decided to play football out in that deluge. It was awesome. It was more like "mudball" after a short while.
This Ernesto just keeps getting weaker and could be a big disappointment to the MSM/Weather Channel/global warming freaks.
A thirty-mile shift to the east and there will be no US landfall, either in Florida or the Outer Banks.
No, sorry, I was just noticing that when faced with the same decision, Jeb made the right call, Nagin the wrong.
INLAND HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EAST CNTL FL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LAKE COUNTY WHERE AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST FL COAST LATE TUES OR EARLY WED THEN MOVE NORTHWARD NEAR THE FL EAST COAST WED & WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO IMPACT MUCH OF EAST CNTL FL WEDNESDAY.
FLZ041-045>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-147-282315- /O.NEW.KMLB.HI.A.0001.060828T1506Z-060831T0300Z/ INLAND VOLUSIA-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-OSCEOLA- INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA- NORTHERN BREVARD-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF.DE LAND.ORLANDO.SANFORD.MELBOURNE.PALM BAY.KISSIMMEE.ST CLOUD.VERO BEACH.OKEECHOBEE.FORT PIERCE.HOBE SOUND.DAYTONA BEACH.TITUSVILLE
1106 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006
INLAND HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WED EVENING.
THE NATL WEATHER SVC IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED AN INLAND HURRICANE WATCH.WHICH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH WED EVENING.
AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO APPROACHES EAST CNTL FL. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS .40 MPH OR GREATER. ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUES NIGHT AND EARLY WED MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.WHEN HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE .ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. DUE TO THE FORECAST TRACK BEING CLOSE TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.WINDS FARTHER INLAND MAY NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG. LATER FORECASTS WILL BETTER DEFINE THE WIND THREAT TO EAST CNTL FL.& A INLAND HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR ALL OR PART OF THE REGION LATER TODAY OR EARLY TUESDAY.
AN INLAND HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN A LANDFALLING HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD HURRICANE FORCE WINDS .74 MPH OR GREATER. WELL INLAND DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HRS. IF YOU LIVE IN A MOBILE HOME.BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO A SECURE BUILDING. HAVE CLOTHES.IMPORTANT PAPERS.MEDICINES & SMALL VALUABLES GATHERED & READY TO GO ON SHORT NOTICE.
$$
Thanks for the toll road update.
Ahem.
Checking in from Fort Lauderdale. Went and got the gas for the generator and filled up the car. Fortunately, I have accordion shutters.
This thing looks as if it is going to get caught up in a northern pull and drag itself straight up through the Bahamas. We'll get the Western edge of the cane. Hurricane force winds, etc. However, there was some discussion that some SHIPS models were stating that if it had held to an earlier track bringing it out over the Florida Strait, we could see it strengthen to a 2 or 3.
This thing bears watching anyway, and more so for the Outer Banks.
Be Seeing You,
Chris
Have you notice the number of East Pacific Storms this year. I don't hear the talking heads referencing it. It's got to be a record number.
Thank you for checking in and sharing your astute observations.
Absolutely right. If the storm skips across the Florida Strait, as now projected, it won't pick up nearly as much strength as it would have over the Gulf. it won't have as long and the water's not as warm.
A category 1 storm in Florida is more of a photo-op for tv reporters than a life threatening event. I'm not dismissing the hassle for Florida residents. A Category 1 is nothing to ignore. But it could have been much, much worse.
Year before last, when a few storms passed close to Orlando, I called to check on my grandmother just beforehand. She planned to do what she'd always done; unplug her hearing aid and sleep through it. Her house is, by Florida's modest standards, about as far inland and as far above sea levels as Florida gets. She did evacuate once, about 10 years ago, I think, when a storm was coming pretty fast and furious right at central Florida.
She also lives in a house built by an architect (my late grandfather) for his own family. He built large structures, mostly hospitals, and I suspect that he used surplus materials from his jobs, because the house has steel I-beams in places where a typical house would have wood struts. If anything happens to my grandma's house, you'll be able to drive a boat from Daytona to Tampa without running aground.
What it does when it emerges over the Gulf Stream remains to be seen. It's possible the Carolinas could be battered harder than Florida will be.
From the latest track, that actually looks pretty likely. It's projected to hit warm but not especially deep water, so it doesn't look like it'll gain a lot of strength, but a slow-moving wide Cat 1 could drop a whole lot of rain on the Outer Banks for as long as a couple of days. That could leave a mark, even without a big storm surge.
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