Absolutely right. If the storm skips across the Florida Strait, as now projected, it won't pick up nearly as much strength as it would have over the Gulf. it won't have as long and the water's not as warm.
A category 1 storm in Florida is more of a photo-op for tv reporters than a life threatening event. I'm not dismissing the hassle for Florida residents. A Category 1 is nothing to ignore. But it could have been much, much worse.
Year before last, when a few storms passed close to Orlando, I called to check on my grandmother just beforehand. She planned to do what she'd always done; unplug her hearing aid and sleep through it. Her house is, by Florida's modest standards, about as far inland and as far above sea levels as Florida gets. She did evacuate once, about 10 years ago, I think, when a storm was coming pretty fast and furious right at central Florida.
She also lives in a house built by an architect (my late grandfather) for his own family. He built large structures, mostly hospitals, and I suspect that he used surplus materials from his jobs, because the house has steel I-beams in places where a typical house would have wood struts. If anything happens to my grandma's house, you'll be able to drive a boat from Daytona to Tampa without running aground.
What it does when it emerges over the Gulf Stream remains to be seen. It's possible the Carolinas could be battered harder than Florida will be.
From the latest track, that actually looks pretty likely. It's projected to hit warm but not especially deep water, so it doesn't look like it'll gain a lot of strength, but a slow-moving wide Cat 1 could drop a whole lot of rain on the Outer Banks for as long as a couple of days. That could leave a mark, even without a big storm surge.
Great story about the structural integrity of your grandmother's house--and nice forecast analysis. Thank you.
I'm glad your grandmother is in such a sturdy house. She should have little problem dealing with Ernesto safety-wise. It is a major hassle to lose power or to have branches blocking street traffic. But it's not the end of the world.