TS/Hurricane/TS Ernesto

NWS/NHC ^ | 28 August 2006 | NHC

[NautiNurse]

Florida Governor Jeb Bush ordered a state of emergency in advance of Ernesto's anticipated Florida landfall as a hurricane. During his press briefing, Governor Bush emphasized the need to, "Have your family plan in place. Be prepared to be on your own for 72 hours. I know it sounds like a broken record." Jeb then repeated his message in Spanish.

All of the South Florida peninsula and Keys are under a hurricane watch, and portions of the watch areas may be upgraded to hurricane warnings later today.

NASA is moving Space Shuttle Atlantis from the launch pad back to its protective hangar, with the launch postponed until at least Sept. 7-8.

Hurricane Ernesto was downgraded to Tropical Storm status after battering Haiti and the Dominican Republic all day Sunday. The death toll in Haiti from Ernesto currently stands at 1 person; storm reports from Hispaniola are scarce this morning.

Ernesto has approached the eastern portion of Cuba, where the government issued a hurricane warning for six provinces, tourists were evacuated, and baseball games were played earlier Sunday than originally scheduled.

Public Advisories Updated every three hours.

Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours

Three Day Tracking Map

Ernesto Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 3 & 5 day forecast tracks

Buoy Data Florida & Eastern GOM

Hurricane Model Tracks

Storm Surge graphic

Satellite Images

Visible Satellite Still Image

IR Image

WV Image

Additional Resources:

Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Tropical Storm Ernesto I

Hurricane Ernesto

[Txsleuth]

I gotta hand it to you....trying to learn all of that stuff...

I come on these hurricane threads and marvel at the knowledge some of our freepers have in talking about shear, direction, stalls...etc.

Of course, then we have our disagreements which really make the thread fun....

[1COUNTER-MORTER-68]

LOL,,The Links at top of page are the BEST to see this stuff for yourself,,without the damn weather-person standing in the way,,My first one was Katrina.

[onthedancefloort]

Counter,

You can tell from this visible sat. that the shear is present a bit, but it will have minimal impact if indeed Ernesto, turns more WNW in direction. Which I believe that this loop is picturing. If you look just to left of the main cloud grouping, you can see the emergence of the low level circulation, which is definitely heading more westward now then north.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

-t

[metmom]

Whew, finally caught up with you.

I didn't have any luck on the hurricane thingie until I have the brainstorm to google *Terrapin Associates*.

Here is the post of yours from the other thread for any newcomers and anyone else interested in a cool hurricane tracking map.

For others interested, the Home page is

Hurricane & Storm Tracking for the Atlantic & Pacific Oceans http://hurricane.terrapin.com/

then, from that page, the loop link to the neat archive is in the bar on upper left:

Storm Archive: Java™ Animated Plots and ASCII Data files, 1886 - 2005

http://weather.terrapin.com/hurricane/index.jsp

It has current data on Ernesto from home page as well:

http://hurricane.terrapin.com/ATL-05A/

[EveningStar]

Hey there, Howlin. I see you're as feisty as ever. :)

[dirtboy]

5 PM Advisor is out - very large shift to the west - NHC must believe center has relocated and reformed:

[bwteim]

Glad you did. I am going to re-re-ply to yours so that the URLS show!

And the java loops are fascinating. Did you also go and look at the search. Say, how many storms came within 100 miles of Jacksonville, for example. Neat.


Hurricane & Storm Tracking for the Atlantic & Pacific Oceans http://hurricane.terrapin.com/

then, from that page, the loop link to the neat archive is in the bar on upper left:

Storm Archive: Java™ Animated Plots and ASCII Data files, 1886 - 2005

http://weather.terrapin.com/hurricane/index.jsp

"This form allows you to search for storms by name, by year, or by locations. You can use all or part of the storm's name, or part of the city's name"

[RDTF]

hey there-

This JonBenet dud story has me so ticked off! They dropped the charges. The freakin confession was all they had? Sheesh. I really wanted it to be him.

[Dog Gone]

To the WEST????

[shield]

Looks like Ernesto is moving northward not westward.

[dirtboy]

Major, MAJOR change in 5-day track:

Now it goes into Charleston SC as a Cat 1 and tracks inland. What the heck happened to the significant NE turn?

[CFC__VRWC]

I see they're now predicting it to make landfall in Florida as a tropical storm.

[dirtboy]

They jumped it a full degree of longitude to the west since the 2pm advisory. So the supposed center is even further from the main convection, if this is accurate.

[shield]

Dan Meador, Weatherman at KHOU at his weather board...says when Ernesto comes off Cuba he'll be moving northward.

[dirtboy]

The 5pm discussion should be QUITE interesting.

[abb]

I wanna see the upcoming pic...

[1COUNTER-MORTER-68]

I've been looking at that(NOAA changed the pages around
without asking me so I have to Retrain)One thing I did see is the TRAIN's-A-Comin' from Africa,,lotta red,,
Be another one soon enough.

[dirtboy]

I haven't been able to see anything resembling a circulation - but, then again, I wasn't looking that far west. This is truly bizzare.

[Libertarian444]

[Patrick1]

The MSM is going to be very unhappy if this thing doesn't get going up to at least a CAT 3 and wipe out some public housing. You can only talk about that Lee Harvey Oswald look alike for so long.