Hurricane Ernesto

NWS/NHC ^ | 27 August 2006 | NHC

[NautiNurse]

Ernesto is rapidly intensifying to near hurricane strength, with heavy rains and flooding possible over much of Hispaniola. Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches...with possible isolated amounts of up to 20 inches...are expected over Haiti and the Dominican Republic. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for Jamaica. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Cayman Islands. A tropical storm watch may be required for portions of the Florida Keys later today.

Public Advisories Updated every three hours.

Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours

Three Day Tracking Map

Ernesto Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 3 & 5 day forecast tracks

Buoy Data Caribbean Sea

Buoy Data Florida & Eastern GOM

Hurricane Model Tracks

Storm Surge graphic

Satellite Images

Visible Satellite Still Image

IR Image

WV Image

Additional Resources:

Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Tropical Storm Ernesto I

[ansaman]

Updated TAOS Damage Model (0600 8/28/2006)

http://www.ansaman.com/ernesto/ernesto.html

The track, intensity, and threat is VERY uncertain.

Be prepared.

[yield 2 the right]

There some(Pro-Mets on the local tv all over the place and at NHC and other weather places) who think that certain weather patterns may just push "Ernesto" back to west as he is leaving Cuba/nearing South Florida and of course the Keys....over some warm waters at that.....

[NautiNurse]

Save your thoughts for a moment--new thread incoming.

[dirtboy]

There some(Pro-Mets on the local tv all over the place and at NHC and other weather places) who think that certain weather patterns may just push "Ernesto" back to west

And that flies in the face of the trend since Saturday evening. Even now, IMO the center is tracking NNW instead of NW, so it is already east of the 5am forecast track. There has been a weak trough just north of Ernesto for over 24 hours and IMO that continues to pull him more to the north than the models have been forecasting.

[yield 2 the right]

If any other Freepers are listening to the Neal Boortz Show please reply to his very good insights on the "panic" all over "Ernesto" and tomorrow's first year anniversary of "Katrina"

[masadaman]

Late to this thread, but has anyone noted that Ernesto in Cuba now with Castro's illness is historically ironic. Isn't Ernesto Che's given name?

[abb]

Link to new thread.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1691291/posts

[CindyDawg]

I was reading a thread here about him. I really can't fault Jeb Bush though. He's really in a no win situation. If he doesn't call for an evacuation, he's in trouble if one comes in and he doesn't......

[beltfed308]

Thanks for the ping.

[Sam Cree]

"If he doesn't call for an evacuation, he's in trouble if one comes in and he doesn't..."

Yeah, that's what Ray Nagin was faced with last year.

[CindyDawg]

You really aren't comparing the two of them are you? (puzzled look)

[Sacajaweau]

Nagin was a laugh this AM. When asked about the new wall, he banged his fist on it. Look at this, he said. It's not going anywhere. It's concrete for cripes sakes. What a Demo!! Oops, an unintended pun was just born!!

[new yorker 77]

To: CFC__VRWC

I think that the detestable MSM once again LIED to the public by taking a nothing storm and making a b-line for New Orleans in their track.

This fart of a storm is going to get destroyed by Hispaniola and Cuba only to hit weakly into Florida.

MSM hoping it strengthens and hits highly LIB populated counties so that they can get moron LIBS on camera complaining about Bush and Republicans.

MSM will also use this hurricane to remind people that President Bush caused Hurricane Katrina.

408 posted on 08/27/2006 2:59:24 PM EDT by new yorker 77 (FAKE POLLS DO NOT TRANSLATE INTO REAL VOTERS!)

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To: new yorker 77

Easy now...Ernesto is not exactly a "nothing storm," and I'm pretty certain Haitians would agree with my point. If your home was in the current NHC forecast path, you would not be calling Ernesto "a fart of a storm" either. Settle down, and please keep your comments to reasoned opinions. Thank you.

419 posted on 08/27/2006 3:05:35 PM EDT by NautiNurse (Leroy Collins and Bill Nelson are both pro-abortion rights candidates)

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To: NautiNurse
"The current path"?

No one knows what the current path is.

This storm is going to be bounced like a ping pong ball off Haiti and off Cuba.

424 posted on 08/27/2006 3:08:07 PM EDT by new yorker 77 (FAKE POLLS DO NOT TRANSLATE INTO REAL VOTERS!)

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To: new yorker 77

"The current path"?
Reading comprehension isn't your strong suit. I said, "current NHC forecast path." Get over it, or move along to another thread. Thank you.

430 posted on 08/27/2006 3:11:32 PM EDT by NautiNurse (Leroy Collins and Bill Nelson are both pro-abortion rights candidates)

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To: NautiNurse

The "current NHC forecast path" is about as inconsistent as it gets.

Now they have this storm going into Tampa Bay.

Next they will show it hitting Miami.

Then they will try to explain why it died out like Rosie O'Donnell's career.

436 posted on 08/27/2006 3:16:17 PM EDT by new yorker 77 (FAKE POLLS DO NOT TRANSLATE INTO REAL VOTERS!)

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To: CFC__VRWC

I don't think this thing will hit the Gulf.

The system that the forecasts said would go away and allow the storm to enter the Gulf, is not going away. That combined with the land masses in this storms path make it appear that at best it will be a CAT 1 hitting somewhere between Ft. Myers and Miami over the everglades.

443 posted on 08/27/2006 3:20:07 PM EDT by new yorker 77 (FAKE POLLS DO NOT TRANSLATE INTO REAL VOTERS!)