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Locked on 08/28/2006 8:32:09 AM PDT by Sidebar Moderator, reason:
New Thread http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1691291/posts |
Posted on 08/27/2006 1:39:35 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Ernesto is rapidly intensifying to near hurricane strength, with heavy rains and flooding possible over much of Hispaniola. Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches...with possible isolated amounts of up to 20 inches...are expected over Haiti and the Dominican Republic. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for Jamaica. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Cayman Islands. A tropical storm watch may be required for portions of the Florida Keys later today.
Public Advisories Updated every three hours.
Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours
Ernesto Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 3 & 5 day forecast tracks
Buoy Data Caribbean Sea
Buoy Data Florida & Eastern GOM
Storm Surge graphic
Satellite Images
Additional Resources:
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Maybe get a moderator to edit the title.
Note the sharp jog to the NE. Let's hope that happens sooner rather than later.
If the center can shift another 50 miles north like it did yesterday, it might not even make it into the Gulf. Best case would be for it to be a Cat 1/Cat 2 through the Bahamas after getting chewed up a bit over Cuba - that's nothing for the Bahamas - even a Cat 3 barely phases them because they're used to it.
I think the mods are napping this hour.
Not to give you a false sense of security, but at this point, the trends in the forecast are in your favor. If you don't have basic hurricane preparations in place (water, tarps, evacuation plan, etc.) go ahead and continue them, but it looks like this one will go to your east (better to be on the west than the east of a north coast Gulf landfall) - and it will probably go well to your east - and if it changes it's mind, it's still a good five days out at this point.
Somewhere north of Tampa as a cat three and then over Florida. I wonder, if it follows this track, where it goes next.
On/Off Hurricane Ping list, mash ---> 
.
An Admin Mod is awake, he slapped down a chitchat thread from news.
We're always awake.
Ungh, this one should eliminate the pine trees I have left over from the last couple of hurricanes.
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on August 27, 2006
big changes in both the initial intensity and forecast track were required...unfortunately...for this advisory. Latest recon data indicate Ernesto is likely undergoing rapid intensification. An eye is forming and maximum 850 mb flight-level winds of 78 kt were recently observed in the northeast quadrant...which equals about 62 kt surface winds...so Ernesto is very near hurricane strength. The eye is so small...however...that the flight crew have been unable to properly assess the minimum surface pressure. The satellite appearance has become quite impressive with little or no vertical shear noted on the system now...and cirrus outflow expanding outward in all quadrants.
The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 295/08...based on a 12-hour average motion. The center has been reforming closer to the strong convective bursts with cloud tops as cold as -85c. It is possible that additional reformation of the low-level center closer to the center of the round convective cloud mass could bring Ernesto over or very close to the southwestern tip of Haiti later today. For that reason...a Hurricane Warning has been issued for southwestern Haiti. Now for the rest of the bad news...the official forecast track has been shifted significantly to the right or east of the previous track...especially at 96 and 120 hours..and now takes Ernesto across the Florida Peninsula. The consensus of the available model guidance now indicates that a strong shortwave trough currently over the central and southern rockies will dig east-southeastward into the western and central Gulf of Mexico... causing the subtropical ridge situated over Florida and the southeastern U.S. To gradually erode eastward. The GFS and NOGAPS models appear to be eroding the ridge to quickly and have Ernesto over southeastern Florida in 84 hours. The rest of the model guidance takes the cyclone farther westward over or west of the lower Florida Keys. However...all of the global and regional models now agree on recurvature over the eastern Gulf of Mexico around 96 hours...and take Ernesto northeastward across the central or northern Florida Peninsula by 120 hours. The official track is similar to but a little west of the consensus models. The intensity forecast was as equally difficult to prepare as the track forecast was...and it highly dependent on the exact track that Ernesto takes due to land interaction with Haiti and Cuba. Excluding land interaction...the environmental and ocean conditions current and forecast to be affecting Ernesto are highly conducive for rapid intensification in the near term...and for the potential development of a major hurricane in the longer term. Water vapor imagery and 00z upper-air data indicate the vertical shear is rapidly decreasing while the outflow is rapidly expanding. In fact ...Outflow channels have now developed to the north and south of Ernesto...with a third channel possibly developing to the west and into an upper-low moving rapidly westward toward the Yucatan. This very favorable low-shear and enhanced outflow pattern is forecast by all of the global models to persist right up until landfall along the Florida West Coast. If Ernesto doesn't linger over Cuba for more than 24 hours...then major hurricane strength seems likely by 96-108 hours. The official intensity forecast is similar to but higher than the SHIPS...GFDL...and FSU superensemble intensity model forecasts.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 27/0900z 17.0n 73.1w 60 kt
12hr VT 27/1800z 17.8n 74.5w 70 kt
24hr VT 28/0600z 19.3n 76.3w 85 kt
36hr VT 28/1800z 20.6n 78.1w 85 kt
48hr VT 29/0600z 22.1n 80.2w 70 kt...inland
72hr VT 30/0600z 24.4n 83.1w 80 kt
96hr VT 31/0600z 26.5n 84.0w 100 kt
120hr VT 01/0600z 30.0n 81.5w 70 kt...inland
$$
forecaster Stewart
------------
Resume dirtboy comments: Everyone in South Florida needs to pay VERY close attention to this storm now, because it's only about three days out according to current forecasts. There is a good chance it might shift away or get chewed up over eastern Cuba, but you cannot count on that happening. IMO it is time to start thinking about what you're gonna do if this storm blows up and tracks as forecast.
I hear they are hooked up to espresso IVs.
:o)
Not taking any chance this time, either. Time to fill the propane and gas tanks, then do an inventory on supplies. We're loaded from collecting over the year from the last hurricane. We could go another 10-14 at short notice if need be, longer if it's bad.
*sigh* I'd rather be planning on the beer for the next football game, but this is the price we pay to live in Paradise.
On a sadder note, we can pretty much abandon any hope that insurance rates will stabelize anytime soon.
Off topic--FOX News reporting Centani and Olaf have been released.
" Not to give you a false sense of security, "
Thanks -- at this point, I'm not going into either "doom&gloom" or "false sense of security" -- I'm a (vicarious) veteran of both the "Katrina" and "Rita" live threads (ALL THANKS TO NAUTINURSE!) from last year, and I have gained some awareness of the uncertainties involved.
Right now, I'm staying in "watchfully living one-day-at-a-time" mode, and I'll be on these threads every minute I'm not working..
(On a personal note - I work for Home Depot, the Corporate Sponsor of Hurricanes, and I'm thinking this might be an interesting week at work, too....)
!! Surrrrrrre you were.
You're welcome. ;-)
I'm not looking forward to the media's collective "Bush's Fault" orgasm over the next few months if this sucker hits, either.
Whoa, now that was some pretty fast response time on my last prayer...thanks for the great news!
The current 5-day track is absolutely worst case for Tampa Bay - puts landfall just north of the Bay with the dirty side of the storm below. Fortunately, 5 day tracks seldom hold up. I hope the track keeps shifting progressively eastward as it has the last 24 hours - this time yesterday the 5-day had Ernesto as Katrina II.
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