Hurricane Ernesto

NWS/NHC ^ | 27 August 2006 | NHC

[NautiNurse]

Ernesto is rapidly intensifying to near hurricane strength, with heavy rains and flooding possible over much of Hispaniola. Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches...with possible isolated amounts of up to 20 inches...are expected over Haiti and the Dominican Republic. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for Jamaica. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Cayman Islands. A tropical storm watch may be required for portions of the Florida Keys later today.

Public Advisories Updated every three hours.

Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours

Three Day Tracking Map

Ernesto Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 3 & 5 day forecast tracks

Buoy Data Caribbean Sea

Buoy Data Florida & Eastern GOM

Hurricane Model Tracks

Storm Surge graphic

Satellite Images

Visible Satellite Still Image

IR Image

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Additional Resources:

Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Tropical Storm Ernesto I

[Sensei Ern]

Great....I finally get a hurricane named after me, and it is in Spanish.

[NautiNurse]

Every bit of my hurricane supplies, from Dynamo radio to water, mops, buckets, towels, bleach, batteries, food, airbed--everything went to Arcadia following Charley.

It was the least I could do after that near miss. Restocked just in time for Fran.

[CFC__VRWC]

Weird how much venom one sees against the NHC - heck, look at the threads about Max Mayfield last week - accused of being off his meds, of being a Global Warming nut, etc.

The poor man just can't win, can he? Earlier this year, the DU and Kos moonbats were screaming for his removal because he wouldn't bow down to the "fact" that the last few hurricane seasons were absolutely the result of global warming.

[SE Mom]

Well..I think I'll head out later for malteds, tuna and ice. Otherwise- all set from the last couple of years...
we're professionals by now, eh?

[NautiNurse]

A tad early for ice, don'tcha think?

[Dog Gone]

Lightning in the Houston area just knocked me off for 10 minutes.

Sometimes I just HATE weather.

Of course the alternative, I suppose, is no atmosphere at all. That wouldn't be good.

[CFC__VRWC]

Those of you who have a chest freezer, take your empty 2 liter bottles, and fill them about 3/4 full with water, leaving room for the ice to expand. With enough ice, a propane stove, you can actually not suffer so much. Katrina left us without power for a week, and it was 95 and muggy. Thank goodness for ice.

I learned that lesson from Charley. There was nothing as hard to find around here as ice after it hit.

[SE Mom]

LOL..NN and I have a common fondness for malted milkballs in crisis...my other drug of choice is Reese's Pnut butter cups.

[Palladin]

Haha! As my dear mother used to say:

"We will have weather, whether or not."

[don-o]

Nice thread head. Uh - no singing is assumed?

[dirtboy]

Of course the alternative, I suppose, is no atmosphere at all. That wouldn't be good.

Hey, you can have weather even without an atmosphere:

Like here

[SE Mom]

Hahaha!! Yes- it is a tad early- but Central Floridians don't let common sense get in the way of stocking up...last year there wasn't any when I went to get some so I'm kind of planning ahead even if it goes west..or just fizzles out!

[Jedidah]

Dog, you got lightning? Maybe even wet stuff from the sky?

It's a fading memory for some of us.

As one Texan to another, quit yer bitchin'! You can't imagine how much us northerners need what you're getting. Even the big lakes up here are 10-15' below normal, and wells are going dry. No pasture, trees dropping their leaves and dying. It's truly desperate and, while I wouldn't wish devastation on anyone, I yearn for tropical storm rains up this way.

[NautiNurse]

Nice thread head. Uh - no singing is assumed?

We were singing to the Admin Mod this morning when Ernesto became a hurricane.

[ansaman]

Potential Ernesto Damage from the TAOS Damage Modeling System at the University of Central Florida

Latest Run as of 1200 27 August 2006

[CFC__VRWC]

It was the least I could do after that near miss. Restocked just in time for Fran.

I know I donated as much as I could to those folks as well. It wasn't much, but it had to help a little.

I was just joshing you a little bit in that last post, not attacking you for your very natural reaction in the change to Charley's path, BTW. Hell, I'd have been the one cheering if it had done what it was supposed to do, I suppose. Gotta have a little bit of a sense of humor about this stuff, or you'll go crazy.

Thanks so much for these threads. I've learned more about hurricanes and the things that create them and influence them right here on FR than I ever had in years of watching the drive-by media and their hyperventilating.

[nwctwx]

Storm ERNESTO: Observed by AF #302
Storm #05 In Atlantic Ocean
Total Flights For Storm #05: 06
Date/Time of Recon Report: August 27, 2006 17:54:50 Zulu
Position Of The Center: 17 ° 45 ' N 073 ° 52 ' W (17.75° N 73.87° W)
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700 Millibars: 3143 Meters (Normal: 3011 Meters)
Maximum Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 35 Knots (40.25 MPH)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured At: 015 Nautical Miles (17.25 miles) From Center At Bearing 135°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 030 Knots (34.5 MPH) From 186°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 075 Nautical Miles (86.25 Miles) From Center At Bearing 136°
Minimum Pressure: extrap 1007 Millibars (29.735 Inches)
Maxium Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Outside The Eye: 10°C (50°F) / 3046 Meters
Maximum Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Inside The Eye: 14°C (57.2°F) / 3052 Meters
Dewpoint Temperature / Sea Surface Temperature Inside The Eye: 3°C (37.4°F) / NA°C (NA°F)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: NA
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being: NA
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700 Millibars
Navigational Accuracy Measured At: 0.02 Nautical Miles
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At: 10 Nautical Miles

Other Information:
1: Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 30 KT SE Quadrant at 16:49:20 Z
2: SFC CNTR 191 / 21 NM FROM Flight Level CNTR
3: SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
4: RADAR BANDING EVIDENT

[dirtboy]

I think this is the latest vortex - fifteen minutes old:

053
URNT12 KNHC 271756
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/17:54:50Z
B. 17 deg 45 min N
073 deg 52 min W
C. 700 mb 3143 m
D. 35 kt
E. 135 deg 015 nm
F. 186 deg 030 kt
G. 136 deg 075 nm
H. EXTRAP 1007 mb
I. 10 C/ 3046 m
J. 14 C/ 3052 m
K. 3 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12 45/ 7
O. 0.02 / 10 nm
P. AF302 0605A ERNESTO OB 07
MAX FL WIND 30 KT SE QUAD 16:49:20 Z
SFC CNTR 191 / 21 NM FROM FL CNTR
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
RADAR BANDING EVIDENT

[NautiNurse]

Tropical Storm Public Advisory

Statement as of 2:00 PM EDT on August 27, 2006


...Ernesto moving near the southwest peninsula of Haiti...may have
weakened but bringing torrential rains to Haiti and the Dominican
Republic...


a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the southern coast of
Haiti from the Haiti-Dominican Republic border westward to the
southwestern tip of Haiti. A Hurricane Warning is also in effect
for the Cuban provinces of Guantanamo...Santiago de Cuba...
ranma... olguin...Las Tunas...and Camaguey. A Hurricane Warning
means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning
area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.


A Tropical Storm Warning is recommended for the South Coast of the
Dominican Republic from Barahona to the Dominican Republic-Haiti
border. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm
conditions are expected within the warning area...in this case
within the next 12 to 24 hours.


A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for
Jamaica.


A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Cayman Islands.


A tropical storm or Hurricane Watch may be required for portions of
the Florida Keys later today.


Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean Sea...Cuba...
the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico...the Florida
Keys...southern Florida...and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico
...Should monitor the progress of Ernesto.


For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.


At 200 PM EDT...1800z...the center of Hurricane Ernesto was
estimated near latitude 17.8 north...longitude 73.9 west or about
105 miles...165 km...west-southwest of Port au Prince Haiti and
about 165 miles...260 km...south-southeast of Guantanamo Cuba.


Ernesto is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph...15 km/hr...and
this general motion is expected to continue during the next 24
hours. On this track...the center of Ernesto will pass very near
the southwestern tip of Haiti during the next few hours...and be
near the southeastern coast of Cuba Monday morning.


Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph...120 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Reports from an Air Force hurricane hunter plane indicate
that Ernesto may have weakened below hurricane strength...and if
this is confirmed the system will be downgraded to a tropical storm
on the next advisory. Strengthening is not likely until the center
moves away from the mountainous southwestern peninsula of Haiti.


Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles...30 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90
miles...150 km.


Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb...29.59 inches.


Tides of up to 3 ft above normal tide levels are expected on Jamaica
and the southwestern peninsula of Haiti. Tides of 4 to 6 feet above
normal along with large battering waves are expected on the southern
coast of eastern Cuba.


Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches...with possible isolated amounts
of up to 20 inches...are expected over Haiti...the Dominican
Republic...and portions of Cuba. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Rainfall amounts of
3 to 5 inches...with possible isolated maximum amounts of 8
inches...are expected across portions of Jamaica.


Repeating the 200 PM EDT position...17.8 N...73.9 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds...75 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1002 mb.


The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
500 PM EDT.


$$
Forecaster Pasch

[dirtboy]

Ya beat me to it.