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Posted on 08/27/2006 1:39:35 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Ernesto is rapidly intensifying to near hurricane strength, with heavy rains and flooding possible over much of Hispaniola. Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches...with possible isolated amounts of up to 20 inches...are expected over Haiti and the Dominican Republic. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for Jamaica. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Cayman Islands. A tropical storm watch may be required for portions of the Florida Keys later today.
Public Advisories Updated every three hours.
Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours
Ernesto Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 3 & 5 day forecast tracks
Buoy Data Caribbean Sea
Buoy Data Florida & Eastern GOM
Storm Surge graphic
Satellite Images
Additional Resources:
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
---|---|---|---|---|
Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Thanks for the Great Thread.
I live in a mid-80's built mobile home, and it actually did extremely well in 2004. The roof had to be replaced, of course, but other than that there was just very minor damage to some of the siding. But I surely wouldn't want to ride out the storm in it.
I want so bad to make a Kerry joke.....better not, I guess.....:')
A few prayers would sure be nice.
Something kind of funny/ironic - I have an aunt and an uncle who live up in Maryland, and they just purchased a house up in the Villages, which is a few miles north of Leesburg. They're moving down on Sept. 12. It's a lot closer to Ernesto's current projected path than I am. They'll miss the storm, but who knows about the aftermath?
ROFL. And I don't feel guilty about laughing because this is several days from hitting us and every once in awhile we need some humor.
FYI, NHC has Ernie inland in 96 hours, making landfall late Wed night or the very early hrs of Thursday morning. (that could change, but I didnt want you to lose a day of prep, good luck)
here in the keys they already ordered madatory evac for tourist and non residents effective 1pm!!
DG..thanks for the updates. ReCall Katrina. we had to scrub that mission..
sw
I believe that the Keys do that 72 hours out from any projected landfall.
You got it. For all of us. I'm hoping he will blow himself out and just bring rain to central Texas.
Fox News just announced that tourists are being asked to evacuate the Keys now.
Thanks very much for the update.
This looks like it might follow some of Charley's path..though a little soon yet to know- lots of variables.
I ate my malted milkball stash during the ME war..guess I should stock up? ;)
I'm glad someone was cheering. As I was on the road when it shifted, I only had the radio and didn't see Jerve, but I knew what was coming anyway. My reaction was just slightly different from yours, more along the lines of, "Oh sh!t!".
Ummm...I stocked up on malted milk ball and Reisen chews yesterday.
Thanks. Here's hoping you guys get that rain anyway, without having Ernesto bring it.
Great. I'm head to Sam's in a bit and I'm thinking malted milk balls now:')
After watching Charley explode from a Cat 2 to a Cat 4 in a matter of hours, I can't take much comfort in that forecast.
1947 was the big year for Florida, especially the west coast; to me it looks like it wiped out all the nesting sites in Naples. Good for Rachel Carson but bad for the eagles and Naples residents (Cat 5).
I have a little chart covering 1941-1963; 47-50 were very active while the rest were quite mild.
Those of you who have a chest freezer, take your empty 2 liter bottles, and fill them about 3/4 full with water, leaving room for the ice to expand. With enough ice, a propane stove, you can actually not suffer so much. Katrina left us without power for a week, and it was 95 and muggy. Thank goodness for ice.
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