Hurricane Ernesto

NWS/NHC ^ | 27 August 2006 | NHC

[NautiNurse]

Ernesto is rapidly intensifying to near hurricane strength, with heavy rains and flooding possible over much of Hispaniola. Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches...with possible isolated amounts of up to 20 inches...are expected over Haiti and the Dominican Republic. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for Jamaica. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Cayman Islands. A tropical storm watch may be required for portions of the Florida Keys later today.

Public Advisories Updated every three hours.

Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours

Three Day Tracking Map

Ernesto Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 3 & 5 day forecast tracks

Buoy Data Caribbean Sea

Buoy Data Florida & Eastern GOM

Hurricane Model Tracks

Storm Surge graphic

Satellite Images

Visible Satellite Still Image

IR Image

WV Image

Additional Resources:

Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Tropical Storm Ernesto I

[1COUNTER-MORTER-68]

Thanks for the Great Thread.

[CFC__VRWC]

I live in a mid-80's built mobile home, and it actually did extremely well in 2004. The roof had to be replaced, of course, but other than that there was just very minor damage to some of the siding. But I surely wouldn't want to ride out the storm in it.

[CindyDawg]

I want so bad to make a Kerry joke.....better not, I guess.....:')

[CFC__VRWC]

A few prayers would sure be nice.

Something kind of funny/ironic - I have an aunt and an uncle who live up in Maryland, and they just purchased a house up in the Villages, which is a few miles north of Leesburg. They're moving down on Sept. 12. It's a lot closer to Ernesto's current projected path than I am. They'll miss the storm, but who knows about the aftermath?

[Dog Gone]

At this rate the forecast track is going to do a Maxine Waters by Wednesday.

ROFL. And I don't feel guilty about laughing because this is several days from hitting us and every once in awhile we need some humor.

[No Blue States]

"It won't take much of a shift to the east for that thing to come knocking on my front door by Thursday"

FYI, NHC has Ernie inland in 96 hours, making landfall late Wed night or the very early hrs of Thursday morning. (that could change, but I didnt want you to lose a day of prep, good luck)

[italianquaker]

here in the keys they already ordered madatory evac for tourist and non residents effective 1pm!!

[spectre]

Hey, Howlin. At least you just had a fantastic time in paradise! I'm keeping my fingers crossed. You love it there as much as I do.. I know you feel my pain...:)

DG..thanks for the updates. ReCall Katrina. we had to scrub that mission..

sw

[dirtboy]

here in the keys they already ordered madatory evac for tourist and non residents effective 1pm!!

I believe that the Keys do that 72 hours out from any projected landfall.

[CindyDawg]

You got it. For all of us. I'm hoping he will blow himself out and just bring rain to central Texas.

[numberonepal]

I believe that the Keys do that 72 hours out from any projected landfall.

Fox News just announced that tourists are being asked to evacuate the Keys now.

[NautiNurse]

Thanks very much for the update.

[SE Mom]

This looks like it might follow some of Charley's path..though a little soon yet to know- lots of variables.

I ate my malted milkball stash during the ME war..guess I should stock up? ;)

[CFC__VRWC]

We were staring at the tv, watching every blip on the radar..."OMG!--did it make a turn?!?" Next blip..."YES!"...we were jumping around and cheering when it made that turn. Steve Jerve was a bit bug eyed when it happened too.

I'm glad someone was cheering. As I was on the road when it shifted, I only had the radio and didn't see Jerve, but I knew what was coming anyway. My reaction was just slightly different from yours, more along the lines of, "Oh sh!t!".

[NautiNurse]

Ummm...I stocked up on malted milk ball and Reisen chews yesterday.

[CFC__VRWC]

Thanks. Here's hoping you guys get that rain anyway, without having Ernesto bring it.

[CindyDawg]

Great. I'm head to Sam's in a bit and I'm thinking malted milk balls now:')

[CFC__VRWC]

The SHIPS model seems to be the only one that gets this sucker into Cat.3.--- the others heep her in Cat.1 most of the time- touching into Cat.2.

After watching Charley explode from a Cat 2 to a Cat 4 in a matter of hours, I can't take much comfort in that forecast.

[Old Professer]

1947 was the big year for Florida, especially the west coast; to me it looks like it wiped out all the nesting sites in Naples. Good for Rachel Carson but bad for the eagles and Naples residents (Cat 5).

I have a little chart covering 1941-1963; 47-50 were very active while the rest were quite mild.

[dogbyte12]

Good for you. Cold drinks, cold water really helps out so much during a hurricane more for mental health even then physical. It's never so bad without power if you have something cool to enjoy.

Those of you who have a chest freezer, take your empty 2 liter bottles, and fill them about 3/4 full with water, leaving room for the ice to expand. With enough ice, a propane stove, you can actually not suffer so much. Katrina left us without power for a week, and it was 95 and muggy. Thank goodness for ice.