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Posted on 08/27/2006 1:39:35 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Ernesto is rapidly intensifying to near hurricane strength, with heavy rains and flooding possible over much of Hispaniola. Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches...with possible isolated amounts of up to 20 inches...are expected over Haiti and the Dominican Republic. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for Jamaica. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Cayman Islands. A tropical storm watch may be required for portions of the Florida Keys later today.
Public Advisories Updated every three hours.
Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours
Ernesto Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 3 & 5 day forecast tracks
Buoy Data Caribbean Sea
Buoy Data Florida & Eastern GOM
Storm Surge graphic
Satellite Images
Additional Resources:
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
The blob to the west of the center (like my technical terms?) was almost pure red just an hour ago. Now there is hardly any red. It seems to be weakening from interacting with the landmass, and also looks less organized now - and it still seems to be shifting northward.
Actually Ernesto will likely end up killing more people than Katrina did.
That was the hope for my namesake, but to no avail. There's a small sick pride that he reached hurricane strenght, I must admit.
The name list is not chosen by the NHC or the United States; it's a committee of the World Meteorological Organization, and the names are derived from the various languages of the countries affected by Atlantic tropical cyclones - English, Spanish, French, and Dutch.
Yep, Jeanne killed 3,000 people in Haiti in 2004 as a minimal hurricane/tropical storm.
I'm stocked up now - have enough canned food and dry goods to last a week, plus I bought as much ice as I could stuff into the freezer. My camping gear is loaded in the back of my truck.
As far as a place to go, in years past I would have stayed at my grandmother's house. But she passed away earlier this year, and we just sold her house. I've got a cousin who lives just down the street from where she used to live, however, and I don't think it'll be a problem to stay with her for a few days if it comes to that. She's in a wheelchair, so I'll be able to help her out around the house. Her house is one of those post-WWII concrete block places, like my grandma's, so it should be able to take a lot of punishment. I'll call her and ask if I can come over no later than Tuesday, if the currrent track holds.
I'm glad someone isn't fooled by the early misdirect. Ernesto will ultimately be maneuvered to Texas, where it will clear a path of devestation so that Rick Perry can declare martial law and steal all the land for the North American Super Communist Smuggling Supertollway while good rural folks are evacuated. This is critical for the formation of the North American Freemason and Neocon Unizone, and the hurricane will move all the way to Kansas City and then Canada, and has been approved by Jorge Bush. This is all true, Jerome Corsi, World Nut Daily, and tinfoil patriots told me so here on FR. Read an article, become an expert, who needs actual understanding and facts? As the Stormfront rolls, continue to stand vigilent for America!
could we please try to stay on topic?
IIRC, Ivan was forecasted for a similar track across most of Cuba. Instead, he bounced along the entire length south of Cuba. We've seen time and again where storms do odd things with land interaction.
If I lived anywhere from south of Brownsville to Boston I'd still keep an eye on this storm. The forecasts have shifted at almost every update, and the conditions on which later turning is based don't appear to be anywhere close yet to a certainty of their taking place.
It doesn't require much more of a westerly jog to keep it mostly in Cuban waters.
This has been a very troubling storm to predict. A few days ago it looked like it might strike Mexico. Now, some are thinking it might hit south Florida or head out into the Atlantic.
I don't know. Friday morning I thought it was headed to Houston.
I guess I'm mostly going to watch. The models have been of no real help with this storm so far. It's doing what it wants to do.
I don't think it's moving north as much as it was. Looking at Atlantic basin WV loops, it would seem it might try to shift a little west here this afternoon/evening. Shear has decreased quite a bit as well. It's still rather ragged, but if it doesn't go over land soon, it should keep developing.
We're in southern Pinellas. Our home was built in the 40's. It's masonary, and very solid. Wood floors, so the house is elevated from the ground about 18 inches. I figure it's seen it's share of hurricanes. We've owned it for 18 years, but in that time have never had any major hurricane come our way. Never had hurricane damage other than tree limbs, etc. (knock on wood.)
We put an addition on a few years ago and not only the addition, but the rest of the house had to come up to Miami Dade code (thus new windows, doors, roof, etc.)...so I feel pretty secure about our home. (except for the picture windows across the front of the house, but if it's a major hurricane we'll board them.)
Give it a rest, okay?
It won't take much of a shift to the east for that thing to come knocking on my front door by Thursday, and my community has just barely picked up the pieces from Charley, Frances and Jeanne in 2004. Go hijack someone else's thread.
Your crowd inserted its nonsense into this thread, I illustrated its absurdity. Hit too close to home, apparently. Now let's drop the subject.
Thursday - Mexico.
Friday - Houston.
Saturday - NOLA.
Sunday - Tampa.
At this rate the forecast track is going to do a Maxine Waters by Wednesday.
Hoefully it won't but be ready. If yall need anything let us know.
I doubt it will end up tracking over land for more than 6-12 hours.
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